저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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영상 결론: 미국 은행 시스템은 사상누각이며 인플레이션은 앞으로 더 악화되고, 달러는 결국 붕괴하여 통화위기가 올 것이라는 비관적 전망입니다. 은행 위기 원인: 연준의 장기간 제로금리와 양적완화가 은행들을 무리한 위험 추구로 몰아갔고, 규제 당국이 국채·MBS를 손실 반영 없이 보유하도록 유도해 실제 손실이 가려졌습니다. SVB 사태도 이 구조의 산물이며, 정부가 문제를 만들고 더 큰 문제로 키운다고 주장합니다. 구제금융과 인플레이션: 연준이 수조 달러를 찍어 은행을 구제하면 통화량 증가로 물가가 크게 오르고, 예금 가치가 잠식됩니다. 예금보험이 있어도 인플레이션으로부터는 보호되지 않는다고 봅니다. 인플레이션 원인: 정부의 적자 지출과 연준의 화폐 발행이 유일한 근원이며, 세금 대신 물가 상승으로 비용을 전가한다고 주장합니다. 옐런 전 연준의장의 저금리 정책도 비판합니다. 암호화폐: 비트코인 등은 인플레이션 헤지 수단으로 믿은 사람들이 거품에 속은 것이며, 관련 기업과 대출 은행들이 큰 손실을 볼 것이라고 전망합니다. 투자 전략: 금리 상승·인플레이션 환경에서는 현재 실적이 있고 배당을 지급하며 가격 결정력이 있는 기업이 유리합니다. 달러 약세에 대비해 해외에서 외화로 소득을 얻는 자산이 헤지가 된다고 조언합니다. 출연자 전망: 미국 달러 붕괴, 통화위기 가능성, 인플레이션 악화를 강하게 경고하고 있으며 특정 개별 종목 언급은 없습니다.
다듬은 글
first of all the reason that the bank failed inflation is going to get much worse the government has made another mistake Federal Reserve is financing this massive bailout we're going to have a currency crisis what's happening right now in the banking system is a direct consequence of bad monetary and fiscal policy the government and the Federal Reserve caused the 2008 financial crisis they have caused this 2023 greater financial crisis thanks to the government the entire U.S banking system is a house of cards the majority of U.S banks are insolvent and because they're all going to get bailed out and the U.S government every bank account is going to be eviscerated by inflation the FED is going to print trillions of dollars to bail out the banks in the government and that means every one of your listeners is going to see the value of their savings collapse as prices go through the roof that regulation didn't do anything you know they tried to close the barn doors well after the horses had left the problem wasn't a lack of Regulation it was an excessive amount of Regulation patient that prevented the free market from working and there was tremendous moral hazard you know and by the way U.S banking regulations encouraged Banks to load up on government debt mortgage-backed Securities and the Federal Reserve gave them no choice by keeping interest rates at zero for over a decade well of course it's a massive bailout and you know we shouldn't even have it at the IC we had a much Sounder banking system before we got the FDIC during the new deal but now it's a much bigger moral hazard than ever before and sure the cost of Deposit Insurance is borne by the customers of the bank it's passed on like any cost but the real damage is the moral hazard that it does because Americans don't give a damn about the risk that the banks take they just put their money anywhere because it's all guaranteed by the government what we need is a free market to ensure that the banking system is South but thanks to the government it is completely unsound as I said it's a house of cards it's a leveraged mess the whole thing is going to implode but what's going to happen is the Fed is is going to bail out the entire system and so you're not going to lose your money the bank is going to have your money because your money is going to lose its value so you can get your money out of the bank but you won't be able to buy anything with it well if most people don't leave much money in the bank and be taken out buy yourself some gold silver do something but you're going to lose dramatically if you have cash if you have a deposit in a bank it doesn't matter if the government insures it or not they don't insure you against inflation in fact they have to create inflation to bail out everybody else but at this point you know it's too late to do the right thing I mean they should have done the right thing 20 years ago 12 years ago I don't see any precedent in the US government doing the right thing every time they get a chance they do the wrong thing and that includes the Federal Reserve so you've got to protect yourself from this incompetence I mean majority of Americans I said are going to get wiped out by inflation now the government is going to try to blame inflation on the private sector on a greedy business manure jacking up their prices or they try blaming it on Putin but the sole source of all inflation is the US government it's the government that spends the money and the Federal Reserve that prints it these massive deficits that we have under abide in but we had him under Trump we had them under Obama all of these deficits are the source of inflation you don't get anything for free for the government all government spending has to be paid for and if you don't pay for it through taxation you're going to pay for it through inflation higher prices are tax and every American has had a huge tax increase thanks to Janet Yellen particularly what she did as Fed chair you know she kept interest rates at zero for practically her entire term that's the reason that we had such a big bubble those low interest rates and quantitative easing and she was part of that that's why all these banks are loaded up with now underwater long-term treasuries and mortgage-backed securities so the banking system is a house of cards it couldn't be less sound and partially a Jada Yellen is to blame for the current state of affairs Peter we're really grateful for your analysis because you often give us a lot more background and context when it comes to the nearly half a percent decrease in the CPI what does that actually tell you about the state of the economy well as I said the economy is literally a house of cards I mean it's imploding but inflation is going to get much worse because the FED has already returned to quantitative easing whether they admit it or not the way they are bailing out all the banks is by printing new money and adding it into the economy and taking on mortgages and government debt onto their already bloated balance sheet so the fed's balance sheet is going to go up the money supply is going to go up and that means consumer prices are going to go way up and in fact when President Biden is trying to tell everybody that they're not going to have to pay the costs of the bank bailout he's lying they're going to pay the cost through higher prices and when he says that everybody's bank account is now safe it's not it's in more danger than ever before because your bank account is going to be eroded in value due to inflation so even if your bank doesn't fail and you don't lose your money your money is going to lose its value well first of all the reason that the bank failed because of the artificially low interest rate and QE environment that the bank operated in for a decade it was the Federal Reserve that created all these distortions by its artificial suppression of interest rates and it caused financial institutions to take incredible risk in order to get a return and also the U.S government through banking regulations actually encouraged these Banks through favorable accounting to load up on treasuries and mortgages because they didn't take a haircut on those assets like they would for other assets nor were they required to mark them to Market so as they were losing value they pretended they had no losses and so this whole thing was a byproduct of bad monetary of fiscal policy cryptocurrency actually got started in response to the 2008 financial crisis and the fear that all the money printing would lead to inflation which of course it has and it's only getting started but I think the people who turn to bitcoin and other cryptos as an alternative to Fiat currencies or as a store of value or inflation hedge they were mistaken they got suckered into a bubble they bought into fool's gold and I think there's a lot of money that's going to be lost in that space and a lot of companies that are operating in crypto and blockchain are going to lose a lot of money unfortunately for Silicon Valley Bank they were banking a lot of those companies and that was also another problem that they encountered in other banks that have made loans to crypto related companies and other tech companies for that matter these loans are going to go bad because these companies have no profits in fact they have huge losses yes once again the government has made another mistake in a long line of mistakes it's because of the government that Silicon Valley Bank was in the position that it was the reason it owned so many long-term low-yielding U.S treasuries and mortgage-backed securities was because the FED kept interest rates at zero for so long and the reason that it shows those assets was because Bank Regulators kind of pushed Banks into treasuries and mortgage-backed securities because they give them favorable accounting treatment they don't have to take any haircuts they don't have to mark them to Market so the government created the problem and now they're creating a bigger problem with the bailout because this is going to cost Americans a lot of money not because their taxes are going to be raised but because the Federal Reserve is financing this massive bailout by creating even more inflation so Americans are going to pay for this at the supermarket at the gas station their cost of living is going to go way up if you thought inflation was bad last year it's about to get a whole lot worse well what you want to have is companies that do well in an inflationary kind period with Rising rates we're going to be in that for the balance of this deck educated maybe longer so you want to have companies that have real earnings right now not in the distant future that pay good dividends and importantly that sell products and services that consumers need to buy so they have pricing power so they can raise their prices along with their costs maintain their margins and raise their dividends but I think most important for Americans I believe the dollar is ultimately going to tank we're going to have a currency crisis not just a financial crisis and so you'll have a much better hedge against inflation if your income streams are coming from abroad because they're being paid to you in foreign currencies and when you translate them back into weakening US dollars that means even higher dividends and that will help offset the rising cost of living that you're going to be experiencing here in the United States as a result of past current and future risk excessive fed money printing
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