저자: 제레미그랜섬 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 그랜섬은 미 증시가 거대한 버블이며 향후 수개월 내 1929·2000년급 폭락이 올 수 있다고 경고하지만, 전량 현금화해도 무방하며 신흥국 가치주와 기후변화 관련 기업에 기회가 있다고 본다. [버블 진단] 연준 및 재정정책이 결합된 도덕적 해이로 투자자 신뢰가 극에 달했고, 빚을 내 주식에 투입하는 행태가 나타났다. 양적완화와 재정부양이 동시에 이뤄지고 있다. [이상 과열 사례] 퀀텀스케이프(배터리 기업, 4년간 매출 없음)가 공모가 10달러에서 130달러까지 올라 GM보다 시가총액이 커졌다. 이는 버블 정점의 전형적 광기 신호다. [폭락 시점·규모] 1929·2000년보다 큰 폭락 가능성을 언급하며, 붕괴는 수년이 아닌 수주~수개월 내 올 것이라 주장. 2000년 당시 연준 개입으로 하락폭이 50%에 그쳤던 점을 비교. [가치 측정] PER·PBR·PSR은 진정한 가치를 재지 못하며, 진정한 가치는 미래 배당 흐름의 장기 할인가치라고 주장. 저PER·저PBR은 시장이 가장 나쁘다고 보는 자산·이익에 대한 평가일 뿐이라고 설명. [자산별 전망] 미국 기술주는 2000년과 같이 고평가 상태. 미국 가치주(저성장주)는 고성장주 대비 역사적으로 매우 싼 수준. 신흥국은 강세장을 겪지 않아 과열이 없고 S&P500 대비 역사적으로 싼 수준이라 10~20년 장기 수익 기대 가능. [장기 수익 원리] 자산 가격을 높이 올릴수록 장기 기대수익은 낮아지며, 이는 피할 수 없는 산술이다. 미국 성장주로는 10~20년 호수익을 기대하기 어렵다. [기후변화 테마] 재생에너지·전기차·전력망 전환 등 탈탄소 관련 기업은 막대한 매출 성장이 기대되며, 미국 주식 중에서는 이들이 보유할 만한 대상. GMO의 기후변화 펀드를 언급. [결론] 그랜섬은 버블 붕괴 시점을 정확히 예측하기 어렵다고 인정하며, 어느 쪽이든 수익을 낼 수 있도록 포트폴리오를 구성해야 한다는 입장. [진행자 메시지] 진행자는 그랜섬과 같은 전문가가 버블 경고를 이어가고 있으며, 위기 속에도 기회는 있다는 낙관적 메시지로 마무리.
다듬은 글
hey guys welcome back legendary value investor jeremy grantham is well known for predicting stock market bubbles and stock market crashes he's recently been showing up on several media channels and being very vocal about a coming stock market crash comparable to the 1929 and also year 2000 crashes unfortunately there seems to be more and more experts out there coming forward and warning of a stock market crash so in this video we're going to be taking a look at the reasons why jeremy grantham believes we're in a stock market bubble and also that there's a crash coming and within months not years however don't worry it's not all about doom and gloom we will be finishing on a more positive note on where he thinks there is opportunity and some places where we could be putting our money it back and relax here is why jeremy grantham believes we are headed for an epic stock market crash okay so here is what we've got coming up we're first going to take a quick snapshot look at who is jeremy grantham this will give you context so you know who you're actually listening to he'll then discuss the current situation and the current stock market bubble he'll then explain how to measure true value and this is from a legendary value investor and then finish on a positive and look at where we should be investing right now first up who is jeremy grantham well like me he's a fellow british born currently at 82 years old he did study in the uk but then he went on to america to harvard to do his mba his net worth is around the 1 billion mark according to cnbc he's the co-founder of gmo which is an asset management company and he's well known for being a bit of an expert on market bubbles we've had even more spectacular fed friendliness and government friendliness so we've had for once the joining of fiscal spending with the with the beds behavior and the usual moral hazard that has been going on for since greenspan arrived in in the 90s and and the result of this is the confidence has risen and risen until finally people are reaching for the greatest demonstration of confidence they have had in their investment career they're borrowing more money to throw it into the market their belief in the market is profound the common wisdom is that with the fed on your side how can you lose when they first said that back in greenspan there were a few doubters when they said it with bernanke there were less doubters but some and now finally there appear to be almost no doubt as at all the belief is more or less complete that all it takes is the fed on your side and stocks will rise forever so a few interesting points though he says that this time we don't just have big monetary stimulus we also have big fiscal stimulus too creating an obvious moral hazard he talks about the current narrative is beginning to change and people's confidence in the market is beginning to grow now with the belief that as long as you have the fed on your side then the markets will keep going up and up and up trying to predict exactly when the market bubble is going to peak is notoriously difficult however sometimes there are telltale signs and some crazy irrational investor behavior if you didn't know jeremy grantham was an early investor in quantum scape and this is an eevee company that recently ipo'd and he gives an example of this crazy investor behavior take a look and you need crazy by the way that's the best timing for a bubble top it's crazy behavior my my own uh stock in quantum escape it came into the market at 10 and shot up to 130.
130 it was bigger than general motors or panasonic and this is a brilliant company but it has no trouble admitting that it won't be producing any batteries for four years so no sales no profits and bigger than gm there is nothing like that in 1929 nothing of that scale nothing like that in 2000 the ciscos of the world were pretty serious companies but they didn't they didn't get to this level 1929 of course ran into a great depression and global trade problems so um you really just want to look at the first leg down which was big enough the analogy is much better with 2 000 and 2000 it went down 50 and the reason it only went down 50 and bounced back uh relatively quickly was uh was because the fed came charging in uh to the rescue next up unfortunately he mentions that this isn't going to be a small crash and does make comparisons to the 1929 and also year 2000 bubbles he also mentions that this next big round of stimulus money that's coming just might make the final peek which would go down in the history books but even more important he mentions that we're only a matter of weeks or months not years away from this all happening take a look and i have no doubt uh some of this new round of stimulus will and uh if it's as big as they talk about this would be a very good uh making of a top for the market just of the kind that the history books would enjoy and we will have a few weeks of extra money and a few weeks of putting your last desperate uh chips into the game and then an even more spectacular bust the market is going to end up as we know where it is going to end up and all the paper in the world will not change the level that is justified by the flow of dividends and earnings that is after all the only thing you can end up eating is the flow of dividends and sooner or later the stock market will once again boring boring sell on the future flow of dividends when you have reached this level of obvious super enthusiasm the bubble has always without exception broken in the next few months not a few years it's always you can't maintain this level of near ecstasy it can't be done because you've put in your last dollar you are all in what are you supposed to do beyond that point you can't borrow any more money you can't take any more risk in fact you know in your heart of hearts you have never taken this level of risk and you never thought you would so pretty interesting stuff next being a value investor he did make some really interesting points on value more specifically how to measure true value in a company which i thought was very interesting and worth including today there are several ratios that investors use to try and assess the company's value the price to earnings ratio or p e ratio the price to book ratio the price to sales ratio he goes on to say that these don't actually measure true value and that there's only one way to measure true value take a look um i have no confidence and have not had any for over 20 years in price to book and pe and price to cash flow price of sales even as a measure of true value a measure of true value is the long-term discounted value of the future stream of dividends a growth stock is of course worth a higher uh ratio of this that and the other than a low growth stock but that doesn't mean they can't be overpriced so value should be cheap for what you are you should build in the growth you should build in the quality and if it's overpriced it's overpriced but to use a simple-minded measure of book is a crazy idea a cheap book is the market's vote on the worst assets out there in the marketplace the lowest pe is the market's vote on the worst earnings most likely to be overstated or downgraded and the same with yield it's the market's vote of the most likely to be cut these have no business being a good indicator of future performance and finally i didn't want this video just to be doom and gloom i do personally believe there's always opportunity even in the worst of times so let's end on a positive note so let's try to answer the questions okay so what should we be doing with our money are there opportunities out there or should we be just selling everything and moving into cash here is what he said i suspect selling everything would work out just fine however having said that there are major discrepancies as there were in 2000 between the u.s tech um which is overpriced the same as it was in 2000 and everything else so the value stocks um the low growth stocks if you prefer it um are about as cheap relative to the high growth stocks as they ever get so they will not have the same pain but they're still at risk to some degree i suspect the good news is that overseas they have not had this same huge bull market and the same overpricing that we have had and that and that of course is a heaven sent opportunity because you can go out into the emerging markets and they are absolutely not that expensive despite the ridiculous argument of comparisons with a overpriced bond market they're simply not that bad anyway and compared to the s p they're as cheap as they have ever been about they've been this cheap two or three times and each time it's worked out very well so you can buy emerging markets and you can look at the intersection of those two ideas which is the low growth stocks or the value stocks within the merging and they are um handsomely priced you should be able to make a really decent 10 20 year return there you will not make a handsome 10 or 20 year return from u.s growth stocks there is in the end a simple arithmetic the higher you big bid up the price of an asset the lower the long term return you will get there is nothing you can do to change that equation every day the market goes higher you know only one thing with certainty that the long-term return will be less than it was the day before i also think uh shares that benefit from the greening of the economy will do much better than the rest anything to do with the renewable energy the electrification of the system electric cars etc these are all going to have top-line revenues that dwarf the declining growth rate of the rest of the of the global economy it will take trillions of dollars to to decarbonize the global system it will dominate everyone's portfolio and if you have to own a u.s stocks they're the ones to own and look around for for a good climate change fund i'm happy to say gmo has one and and they're doing very well now that the focus is clearly uh finally took 20 years to wake up but in the last year people really are beginning to understand the size of the problem and the need to move money uh in into greening the economy so according to jeremy grantham selling everything into cash would probably work out just fine he does see opportunity in the emerging markets as they haven't had the same bull market and over pricing they are near to as cheap as they've ever been when compared to the s p 500 and finally he does see opportunity in companies that help in greening of the economy so things like renewable energy electric vehicles climate change so there you are guys unfortunately yet another expert warning of a stock market bubble ready to pop i am personally of the opinion that no one really knows when or how severe this is going to be so it's best to position your portfolio so that you can benefit either way is this even possible well for more on that be sure to check out this video here and remember it's not always about doom and gloom there are opportunities even in the worst of times and i do think we should always remain optimistic so hope you found this useful in fact if you did enjoy anything hen
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