저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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모틸랄오스왈 2025년 2분기 실적 발표 후 출연. 순이익 70% 감소는 트레저리 평가손실(약 200cr vs 전분기 700cr 이익) 때문이며, 영업이익은 555cr로 약 2~3% 증가. 자산·프라이빗웨alth·HFC는 약 30% 성장. 브로킹 부진은 올해 3분기가 최악이고 이후 회복 예상. 금융당국의 브로커리 수수료 상한 인하안에는 강하게 반대하며 sell-side 리서치 붕괴 우려. 향후 12개월이 지난 12개월보다 시장에 훨씬 우호적이라고 전망.
다듬은 글
PCTV8 Motila Losal studio is Mr. Ramdev Agarval. They just came out with their Q2 numbers. The stock today is down close to about four to 5%. And that's because at the bottom line you are seeing a drop of 70%. But that is courtesy a big swing that you're seeing in the treasury the investment um segment where there is a loss of 200 cr versus a profit of 700 cr.
But this is the notional marktomarket uh loss that the company has seen on account of the swing in the equity markets in Q2. for this is uh notional. What actually stands out is the performance that the company has done in the asset and private wealth management where the growth is very strong 12% up on a quarter-on quarter basis and um I think about 23% higher sorry 12 yeah and about 13% high 23% higher in the PBT level uh you know Ramdev G thank you very much for joining us in the studio so I'm not focusing on the pat because that is a notional loss right that is swinging it
yeah yeah so actually one has to focus on The operating profit operate operating profit is very resilent uh it is uh last year was 540 crores or odd and this it is 555 or five something like that 2 3% up despite the fact that we uh broking business which is 50% of the uh company till last year has gone through this uh expiry challenge you know uh so last year was a best quarter in September
against that uh that business made about 2 225 crores last year or 240 crores. This year it has made just about 175 crores. So there's a 50 cr loss out of that and despite that we have 2% growth. So what has happened is that that business has clearly given 24% lower profit but other business have more than met up.
So other businesses have grown at 30%. So the the the boom conditions in capital market is on whether it is AMC, whether it is private equity, whether it is uh uh I banking. I banking is just about kind of really doing record numbers. Uh and so all of them are doing well and your HFC housing finance which used to be kind of a very stuck kind of situation has also grown at 25 27.
So all the businesses ex broking has grown at about 30%. Booking obviously has gone down by 24%. Which I think this is the worst quarter starting next quarter. Uh I think it'll be much more manageable uh year-on-year comparison. But after that of course uh the growth again of 25 30% in broking also will start.
So that's what that's how the operating side look as far as mark to market is concerned it's linked to the market conditions. So we have about a billion about 9,000 crores treasury. Uh I think September quarter is about 4% decline in the index. So there you saw this mark to market down. First quarter was very good 6 700 crores up plus.
Now this quarter is starting a little more positive. So let's see. I mean nobody has any call what happens to the mark to market. But when you look at on year basis you'll start getting about 15% on your 9,000 crores which will be about 13400 crores. But that's for the believer the people like us who believe in the long run
but quarter on quarter these challenges will be there. All right and that mark tom market will reverse some part of it in the in the coming quarter as well and all probably so far yes but hopefully still there two more months to go indeed Mr. Aaral good to have you in the studio as always. Now a couple of days ago you know we got this news of the proposed norms lowering the cap on brokerage as well as on expense fees you know for EMC's
as well as for wealth firms. I wanted your take on it. You know the industry has been a little bit soft. So what kind of impact can it have on business? Obviously it gets gives a bit of dent. And how is the industry approaching this? You know have your approach to regulators and what's the logical be out of this?
Yeah so I think it is extremely damaging. One is the business side of it. That's one part which uh uh this thing but in this kind of a uh resurgence of capital market which has become a huge what do you call economic strength for the country I don't think this kind of measures are required at this juncture uh because salesside research has a very dominant there's a power of salesside research I mean you come to here purely even CNBC and all the channels are fed by salesside research and you don't pay anything to the salesside research so the public at large are educated by the company's stories by by various minds.
I mean I may say buy some might say sell. So this thousand analysts salesside analysts they are the backbone of capital market. Now they are being paid by uh brokers who whoever say we have 50 analysts. So we pay pay them we spend about 70 80 crores on just the research. So there must be Kotak, there must be Pabladha, there must be uh you know all all the all these guys all the foreign broker they all spend money on uh research and that is being charged with a brokerage.
It's not separate it is charged with the brokerage. Now the whole thing is going on very well. There are hundreds of companies new companies which are coming up which we don't know the name also who is going to cover them. Buyside research is no substitute. In fact sellside research is extremely good complement to the buy side research.
M you know so sales side research must happen and somebody has to pay for it you cannot be at the mercy of asset manager to give you uh revenue so in the current form it's extremely damaging as you said no current proposed thing very dramatic yes I think uh regulator must some kind of rationalization you are looking
they must listen to the voices of broking industry and even the users you know who will benefit out of this nobody is for it and yet uh these kind of proposals are coming so I think we'll make a representation probably there is We'll try to make them understand our viewpoint and then of course regulator knows the best
uh what to do. They they have brought the market they brought the system so well so far. SB has been one of the architect of this capital market to make it safe and liquid and dematted and one of the most aspirational market in the world. So I'm sure they they will uh uh they will look at uh uh the merits of uh this particular thing.
But 12 to2 is like closer of the system. Mhm. I mean basically we don't want sellside research types you know which is not right. I think sellside decide is a very distinct role which is not understood properly uh because this thousand analyst cannot be replicated with buy side. However money you pay you cannot get conflicting views uh and uh the entire media social media retail everybody is fed by the sales side research.
So I think uh they must actually provide more dollars for the sales side research because the markets are expand expanding horizontally and research dollars are not there and now you're pulling out whatever little is there I think it'll destroy the market. Ram G well put you know always count on you to present the other side of the argument from an industry point of view but just getting back to your business and the numbers now your ARR revenue which is basically your you know the AMC well distribution [clears throat] 61% of the overall revenue and this number was 52%.
In Q1 I mean that's a big 900 basis points kind of an increase. Yeah I mean at this rate you will pretty much move to a fully fee based model sir. Yeah. So there was also an effort to build non non-broking based feebased business model like distribution we want to build. So but we didn't want to come down this fast I mean from 50% to now we have come to 24 25% in broking.
So that was not the intention to go down that fast and so it will come back as the as the uh decision normalizes uh Q3 Q3 would be still kind of same Q4 start recovery will start and I think 26 27 will be full recovery on a lower base of 20 uh 24 25. So I think it will recover back but it'll it will not get back because other business are growing at 30%.
Like my AMC has gone from 110,000 to 160,000. So it's almost 50% growth without mark to market because yearon year it has grown from 110,000 to 160,000 crores AUM right and that has happened without market doing much. So everything is a net flow. So we get about 15% mark tomarket as we go along. So I think there is a clear what do you call tailwind in all the capital market businesses starting with the broking AMC private equity I banking uh you name it wealth management everywhere there is a this thing and uh that continues in my mind uh in fact it is going to gather pace as a as the credit flow the the economy picks up this all these uncertainties of uh uh trade trade agreements all those things get behind
and GST cuts and all those things. My sense is that next 12 months is going to be much better for the market than last 12 months. You want to put in some AUM targets or I can't do it. Don't get into that because uh I I don't know. I mean we are doing well till yesterday. So now what else can I say? I mean we have done about 50,000 crores net flow last year.
I mean everybody tries to do a little better than that. Okay. Let's talk about a smaller part of your business. The home finance business that's as well growing very very well. Very well. you know it's done well even on a sequential basis profitability as well is improving what are the targets on this particular vertical because it's small but it's gradually expanding and at a decent pace and there's an industry tailwind as well versus GST 2.0 Yeah.
So I think uh here the new team is stabilized and the operating leverage is now building up. See till last year uh the AUM growth was happening but because the feet on the street was more the uh the the profit was stuck at about 120 crores. M now it is looking that we have we have got over it and the operating leverage is working and on a 25 30% 30% kind of aum growth
we'll get start getting 25 to 30% net profit growth right so our our intention it's a very secular business very predictable uh and very large opportunity so initially we had little thinking trouble but now this new team is fully stabilized and I think from 25 at least it will contribute as much as the rest of the business are growing.
So about 25 to 30% kind of a bottom line growth should be happening for next to three years. Just you know one question as you said right conflicting opinions make a market you need buy side you need sell side even when it comes to stocks and IPOs on social media there is a lot of outrage about expensive valuations about one particular you know IPO which is open right now lens card
but yesterday when you see the kind of anchor investment and the demand 147 anchor investors and including Motil and every blueblooded anchor investor so present the other side of the argument which makes sense of this 200 times valuation so let me Let me put it because we are interested party our this thing.
So uh stock specific discussion I and my knowledge is very little let me tell you and uh uh you have to speak to the fund manager who have allocated and how they think but broad picture I can tell you now we are seeing for the first time birth of multinational companies multinational consumer companies from India.
See it has not happened in first 10 years of operations. uh somebody is operating in 50 countries, 100 company uh countries and that too touching the consumer B2C businesses. So this is happening for the first time thanks to Liberty of private capital the risk capital and second is thanks to internet and these guys they are very global minds.
So I think uh uh these are the different companies than the old old companies like say my HFC and they are going to operate maybe in three states, five states, seven states or 20 states but within the uh you know boundaries of India. So we we are basically attacking $5 trillion of GDP. These guys they are they have ambition and plans and execution of attacking $125 trillion of GDP the way American corporations do it.
So the outlook is different whether they are successful, unsuccessful, how successful that is for fund managers and the but it's very exciting time to see birth of young global companies out of India. I want to put you on the spot but thank you for you know sharing your so that's a that's a thought process but uh I have no strong view one way or the other.
Well, I know the debate continues with regard to valuations, but as you said, you need to appreciate the business. You know, founders have a vision in there, so hopefully they get to that, but the debate on valuations does continue. Always a pleasure, sir, having you in the studio. Thanks a lot for coming down.
Wishing you a good day ahead and all the best for the coming quarter as well with thanks. Well, time to slip into a short break. They come back. We'll
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