저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션 환경에서는 고수익·저부채 우량 주식이 가장 좋은 방어 수단이며, 인도 시장은 중국 대비 상대적으로 유망하다. 금리·경기: 연준이 인플레이션이 높다고 보고 금리 인상을 계속할 것이며 미국 경기 둔화가 예상된다. 미국 정부의 재정 지원으로 경기가 완전히 꺾이지는 않을 수 있어 상황은 '간당간당'하다. 미국 장단기 금리 역전은 경기침체 신호로 해석되며, 침체 가능성은 충분하다. 인도 시장: 중국은 시장 성과가 나쁘고 경기도 부진할 것으로 본다. 인도는 수출 의존도가 낮고 내수가 커서 상대적으로 유리하며, IT 서비스 수출도 생산성 향상 수요로 견조할 것으로 본다. 펀드 자금 유입이 늘면 인도 비중을 늘릴 계획이다. 종목: 퍼시스턴트(Persistent) IT 기업은 경기침체 시 효율화 수요로 전망이 좋다고 본다. 조미토·파이토미는 고금리에서 적자 인터넷·핀테크 기업이 위험하다고 봤다(알리바바·소프트뱅크 등 포함, 일부 예외). 릴라이언스는 확장성을 높이 평가하나 보유 계획은 없다. 유럽: 에너지 가격 고공행진으로 산업 생산 차질과 생활비 부담이 큰 위기이며, 겨울에 더 악화될 것이다. 유로화 약세가 그 신호다. 미국 정책: 민주당은 선거를 앞두고 전략비축유 방출 등으로 휘발유 가격을 낮추려 한다. 투자 전략: 인플레이션 방어는 고자본수익률·성장·무부채 기업 주식이 최선이다. 금은 최소 자산의 10%를 비상 통화로 보유할 것을 권한다. 인도 주식은 현 시점에서 차익 실현하지 않는다. 글로벌로는 IT를 생산성 향상에 활용하는 기업이 유망하다. 향후 3~4년 인도 주식은 인플레이션을 웃도는 수익이 기대되며, 중간 10%대 수익률 전망은 다소 낙관적일 수 있다고 보았다. 금: 암호화폐로 수요가 분산되어 금이 기대만큼 오르지 않았지만, 장기적으로는 훌륭한 안전자산이다. 최대 리스크: 정부의 통화 남발로 인한 통화 가치 하락과 그에 따른 고인플레이션 및 경제 붕괴 가능성.
다듬은 글
mark mobus this is where what Mark mobus thinks of the Indian Equity markets his views on growth versus recession the stocks that he's looking at and a lot more listening it'll get worse because I believe the FED will continue to raise rates uh because they realize that inflation is still too high in their View you must remember central banks uh uh their playbook is to raise rates whenever they have inflation and so they're going to continue to do that I believe and you're going to see higher rates in the US and a Slowdown in the economy uh nevertheless what you see in America is also an incredible amount of savings that have been fed into the economy and of course the current Administration is pumping more money in to the economy by giving for example a break uh people that that have loans you know student Home Loans they're helping them to pay that back so that's more money going into the economy so it's a touch andgo situation Mark why is India outperforming some would argue that Indian markets are expensive and if interest rates go higher and if inflation is here to stay then that automatically should impact the p multiple for India well you must remember that if you compare uh countries around the world India looks very very good particularly if you look at the big uh countries uh and you have to compare China and India as you know China is going through a terrible time now and the market is very bad the performance has been very bad and it looks like the economy in China will continue to be in a bad shape U on the other side and by the way uh exports are very important for China whereas for India they're in a much better position because yes uh you have software exports which will probably continue to do very well in the face of the effort globally to become more productivity increased productivity and become more efficient that means the demand for Indian software will continue to be high but more importantly the Indian economy is not uh so much dependent upon exports upon manufactured exports and that's good news because you have a domestic economy which is very large and which can feed uh the growth of companies in India Mark last time when we spoke to you you had three positions in India have you made it four or have you cut it down to two no we're contining to hold uh what we have and we will probably increase as things go forward because as you know a lot depends on the status of flows into funds so into our fund of course the flows have been not that high because of the current situation but as those flows increase we will be increasing India Mark why is the money market telling us a completely different story and if I look at some money market uh Watchers especially Global bond fund gurus uh they are making a case that look the money market is a mature market and the US uh bond yield both shortterm and longterm has inverted which historically has pointed to a recession I think uh that's uh one Theory and I think it's quite possible that we will enter into a recession there's no question about that of course Europe is already almost into a recession already so depending on how you Define recession we're definitely in that situation in Europe and uh it could spread to the US but you must remember there are elections coming up in the US and uh the Democratic party will do anything possible to have the economy in good shape when the election comes around which is why for example they released uh the Strategic oil res reserves in order to reduce gasoline prices as you know gasoline prices at the pump in the US is a very very important factor because so many people depend on their automobiles uh to move around Mark U one of your big positions in India was persistent which was an IT company and historically we've seen that whenever there has been a Slowdown at least in developed economies like Europe and like us it has historically impacted it companies what are your thoughts them mark would you be relooking at your exposure to it and and uh persistant in particular I believe uh in the case of persistent and other it companies uh their future looks very good even in the phase of recession uh for one very simple reason uh companies and organizations need to increase efficiency and the way in the face of of a recession and in order to do that they've got to take advantage of it services to a greater extent so I expect uh expenditures on it will probably increase when there is a recession Mark I like to draw your attention to the internet stocks especially the fintech companies globally names like 10 cents Alibaba soft bank and then Indian companies like zomato policy Bazar PTM do you think this was a fat Humpty Dumpty bubble which has got pricked yeah I think it's probably a good description um in the face of higher interest rates these companies that have not been earning money and are in debt um are going to be in trouble there's no question about that so I think these are companies that should be avoided not not all of them men are in that situation the case of the Chinese companies you mentioned uh their downfall is because of what happened to them U as a result of moves by the administration in China to hinder their development or at least to constrain them uh but uh any company that has not been making money and continues to burn money will be in big trouble and these are companies to be avoided Mark so what do you make of the crisis in Europe given the fact that right now the in Europe you have to choose between eat or heat there is inflation on one side which is having impact on your spending power and there are high energy prices which are sucking out the savings and which are having impact on your energy cost the problem in Europe on all count is real and now that winter is coming what kind of economic ramifications do you think that will have on financial markets uh it would be very bad and you can look at the Euro as one example uh the Euro now is in I think it's 90 something cents against the US dollar and that shows you you know it come down from 120 or 120 plus uh you can see that the Euro has really been bombed out and uh I believe it's an indication of confidence in Europe and the Euro uh so Europe is in big trouble and they will continue to be unless they get alternative sources of energy you know it's not just a matter of the price of gasoline or diesel at the pump it's a matter of Supply to Industries some Industries in Europe have to shut down or at least close down uh close some some of their production because of uh lack of energy or because of higher energy prices so this is a real crisis in Europe and will probably get worse during the winter season Mark what is your view on Reliance this is a company which you've tracked for many years now and I think you've owned Reliance in the past then you sold it then you bought it back interesting things are happening now here's one company where they've got their uh I mean they they' managed to really expand their operations in Telecom retail new energy now uh what is your view on Reliance specifically uh well we are focusing on the smaller and mediumsized companies so we don't have reliance but I must say uh I have to admire uh Mr Ambani for what he's done with that company and the way he's expanded and got into New areas and really have benefited the Indian economy to a great extent in telecoms in retailing and so forth so uh it's it's a very admirable company but I don't have any specific uh idea regarding their you know growth and earnings going forward Mar so if you really have to prepare your portfolio and you have to bulletproof your portfolio in this inflationary environment what is the best hedge should one buy to Commodities should should one add gold back is it time to increase exposure to hard assets I think the best uh alternative and the best protection now would be equities in companies that have a high return on Capital uh have good earnings growth and have no debt or at least very very low debt I think uh companies with those three uh criteria uh should do well in this kind of environment because we must remember at the end of the day equities good equities companies that are earning money are the best protection against inflation because they're able to raise their prices in line with uh their higher costs and in line with inflation so Mark at the current juncture what would you call a has your high conviction bets and where do you think both locally both globally and specific specifically in India it's time to take some chips off the table uh well in India if you look at our portfolio we would not take any chips off the table at this stage of the game because we we have companies that we think will weather well in this environment but globally what we would look for are companies that have a very good handle and good control on it uh now it doesn't necessarily mean specific it companies software companies or Hardware companies but it means companies that are able to use it to increase their productivity so uh whether it be consumer whether it be transport whether it be manufacturing whatever uh industry those companies that have a good handle on it and are able to increase their productivity using it will be the targets for us mark But in general do you think next next 3 4 years are good for Equity markets and especially Indian Equity markets and if I say the anticipated return from Indian markets from the current juncture and next 3 to 4% should be in mid teens will I be will that be a fair statement or that would be a uh that would be a very bullish assumption well if if you select companies of the type that I just mentioned uh equities will beat inflation uh simply because the companies that are in good shape will be able to raise their prices higher than inflation so that's the reason why equities always are very good bet in an inflationary environment uh yes there'll be times when the prices of these companies go down and uh fluctuate but these companies though are going to be the survivors and they will do very well in the long term Mark what is your view on gold given that gold has a reputation of being a hedge against gold this time unfortunately even though inflation is at in record high gold is not living up to its reputation why and what is your view there well I think one of the reasons why gold has not done better than we what we would expect is because of crypto currencies people are going into crypto currencies uh as a replacement for gold uh thinking that it's a good investment uh but at the end of the day if you look at the long-term Trend in an inflationary environment gold will be a very very good safe haven so I always recommend people to have at least 10% of their Assets in Gold uh as an emergency uh currency in case something goes wrong and if you look at the way money has been printed uh devaluation of currencies will continue and you must remember inflation is devaluation of currencies the reason why we have inflation is because currencies have been devalued Mark what is the biggest risk to this Market is it valuations is it inflation is it this entire uh challenge what we have on the energy front uh well the biggest risk uh at the end of the day is currency devaluation uh because uh the way governments have been imprinting money means that their currencies will be devalued and that can lead to very high inflation and a general uh breakdown of the economy so at the end of the day that's what we're looking at the biggest risk
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