저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인프라 섹터는 경기순환주지만 이번 사이클은 최소 5~10년 지속될 것으로 본다. 인프라 사이클 전망: 모든 산업은 순환적이며 FMCG도 예외가 아니다. 과거 사이클은 2003~2007년 약 5년이었고, 이번 사이클은 2022년경 시작되어 인도 성장 스토리가 막 시작된 단계라 5~10년 이상 갈 수 있다. 단기 변동 인식: 중간에 하락장과 시장 붕괴가 있을 수 있으나 이는 사이클의 일부로 본다. 매도 기준: 성장 스토리가 정체되고 6개월~1년 이상 성장이 없으며 3~5년간 재부상이 어렵다고 판단될 때, 또는 밸류에이션이 감당하기 어려울 정도로 비합리적일 때 매도를 고려한다. 상승 후 새 성장주가 등장하면 일부를 매도해 재투자하기도 한다. 사례(WE Global 언급): 2015~2022년 사이 약 50루피 평균 매수, 분할 후 기준 약 1,000루피까지 상승했다. 이후 조정으로 약 300루피까지 밀렸다가 현재 약 450루피 수준이다. 성장률은 20%에서 최근 정체되어 올해 7~8% 수준으로 예상되지만, 재무구조가 튼튼하고 독일 진출 등 신시장 확장을 하고 있어 매도하지 않았다. 출연자 관점: 기업이 현금흐름으로 확장과 다각화를 할 수 있다면 성장 스토리는 끝나지 않았다고 본다.
다듬은 글
whether it's infra whether it is Commodities or whether it is banking these are cyclical sectors in a boom time they will have great earnings in a downt they will have drop in earnings you when you invest you don't count years you look at decades you know your buying price but you don't know a selling price are you getting this kind of an confidence in some the infra companies that they are long haul stocks I think so first let me tell you what is the definition of cycle which sectors are not cyclical tell me maybe there are some sectors even it cyclical actually exactly everything is cyclical yeah even fmcg is cyclical who say that fmcg is not cyclical in 2000 between 2003 and 2009 I think Hindustan Li gave you 0% return and between 2002 until 2022 Vio gave you 0% return if you calculate the higher price in 202 or three until date Vio might have given you zero return or maybe 10 15 20% so everything in the world is cyclical it depends that some in some sector there are shorter cycle maybe one year or two years and some sectors Cycles are bigger maybe for 5 years or 10 years so I think this infrastructure infra cycle first cycle in infra was started between 2003 and 7 that lasted 5 years I think this cycle has started in 2022 or something I personally feel this is going to last maybe more than 5 7 years maybe 10 years because the story India story had just begun of course there would be many hiccup there would be many downwards Trend in the market market will collapse Market will go down those things are part and partel I think this cycle will be should last for at least 5 7 10 years what has differentiated you as a you know great investor is your ability to perhaps bear the pain and hold on to the stock for years so when you buy a stock you look at some factors size market cap promoter and valuations but when you sell a stock what are the factors you look at and when do you think it's time to hold and when do you think there is time not to sell no when I find that the story has plateaued and there is no growth in the company and the growth if the growth is not there for maybe 6 months or one year then I'm okay with this but if I find the the story is over and may not uh you know resurface maybe for next uh three 3 years or 5 years then I can exit the stock or when I find that the valuation is unreasonable unbearable you know then so I can exit the stock or when I am like suppose One stock has gone up three times four times or two times or whatever it has gone up and I am finding another story where the sun had just started Rising then maybe I will sell some fraction of uh uh the existing shares and invest in the new uh story um so let's look at a case study here a case study of a stock where you've invested couple of years ago we of global between 2015 and 2021 or 22 the company went through an exponential curve they expanded they got the business right they converted themselves to a platform company in peak of covid and the return ratios were enviable now the Slowdown has hit them last four five quarters they've disappointed the market but you've still not sold your core holding in we is still in t so even though the company's gone through a downturn You' had the patience to keep on the stock so when the company's going through downturn what prompted you not to sell the stock so I would say your memory is very sharp you know I I appreciate that and just for your viewers that I had bought we Global at an average price of say 50 rupees now it is split and whatever it is and in 50 rupees by in 2021 or 22 it was 1,000 rupees from 50 to 1,000 rupees in a span of 6 7 years okay so I did not sell and then again it fill back to 300 rupees now again it is 450 rupes so this is the story why didn't I sell just because I found that story is not yet over on the contrary of course the growth has come down earlier company was growing at 20% now company has plateaued or not uh grown in last one year now or maybe in the current year they will grow some 7% 8% during that time also balance sheet was very perfect and Company expanded also they entered into some new geography like they entered into Germany and all so that means compan is generating enough cash flow to expand its business or to diversify into a new territory so that shows the confidence of the management on confidence of the balance sheet in spite of growth maybe the train has slowed down train has not stopped you know the train has slowed down so that is part and paral it's okay now when this new phase will start then again earlier they had two geography now they are into three geography so whenever that new uh this era will start so they should be they should have good good opportunity in front of them so
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