저자: DanIves · 외국인
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2025년 2월 엔비디아 급락 국면에서 딥시크 우려는 과장이며 AI 인프라 투자(하이퍼스케일러 CAPEX, 약 2조 달러 규모) 사이클은 유효하다고 주장. 관세·미중 기술 갈등은 엔비디아 등에 압박이지만 매도 사유는 아니라고 봄. 엔비디아 급락을 '황금 매수 기회'로 규정하며 테슬라·GM·소프트웨어(세일즈포스, 팔란티어, 서비스나우, 오라클) 수혜 확산을 강조. 과거 2018~2019 사례를 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
30 days if we got that in 30 days and they lasted 30 days are we only saying there's only going to be like minimal damage does it not hold these companies back from making big decisions I think it's minimum I me I'll be in Detroit you know tomorrow I think ultimately right now in terms of GM Ford it's very contained in terms of the impact now I think when you look at Tesla that's probably the one that's least impacted especially given their supply chain but our view is here bark worse than b whether it's on the auto side and I continue view on the China side even on ships even though that's you know pressuring names like Nvidia and others just as we've navigated in 2018 2019 you don't sell these stocks because of it because I continue view just like you talk about where is the spending I think it's going to be another robust number from Google tonight saw palen and others AI Revolution alive and well tariffs are not impacting that in our view one of the reasons why your analysis is is particularly special is not just because you've been right about a lot of it but also you travel a lot you talk to people you see the sentiment has has there been even in the past couple days any sort of shift in the optimism because of the uncertainty yeah I think less about like in terms in Mexico and and what we're seeing in Canada it's more it's from a China tariff perspective combined with deep seek I think there was just general maybe a little more AA in terms of what that means in terms of us China to cold Tech War tariffs what the next step is because part of the issue is if you go back to this last week nadela doubles down 80 billion Zuckerberg 65 billion you see just massive catbacks tonight from Google pound tier Messi of AI just another phenomenal quarter I think the worry is could anything spoil the party and the only thing that spoils the party is a ratcheting up in terms of us China tension so I think in terms of the nervousness that's why you're seeing pressure on Nvidia on overall ATT care you know as this plays out GM was supposed to be immune from this because they actually moved their operations and their business out of China largely to Mexico now they're in the crosshairs I just wonder if other tech companies in particular are moving operations out of China more aggressively to immunize themselves from this type of shock yeah I mean like to that in GM it's been sort of one punch after another from the EV perspective in terms of from one Administration to the other the Mexico situation but I do believe you know Mary and the team navigated that extremely well and I think GM continues to be a stock that we bullish on here in terms on the China side look my view we talk about if if Apple decide today if Tim like we're going to move 10% of our supply chain out of China that would basically take about 2 years and ultimately something that could cost you know what I think 30 40 billion If It ultimately you know translated the point is that it's always easier said than done and I think that's the conundrum because the reality is like when you look at Apple you look at Tesla that's why cook must 10% politician 90% CEOs Dan IES Came Out Swinging and talking about new details that paint in Nidia in a totally different light have you noticed the remarkable upswing of Nvidia a Titan in the tech industry with a 171% leap last year Nvidia emerged as the biggest gainer on the Dow Jones Industrial Average but what about the recent dip well stay tuned as Dan Ives unravels why nvidia's recent dip May foreshadow a triumphant rally in the stock markets once again welcome back everyone to invest ocy I do wonder if there is some reput ation damage being done in the longer term where people are looking at what's going on some of the tactics and they're saying let's look elsewhere are you seeing that in any capacity look I think it's contained in terms of the demand issues that maybe that Dave seen from a negative perspective you know because of it but boogies I think the most important thing is when you think about autonomous you think about robotics I mean that that's really the Tesla St I think 90% of the story today is about that so there could definitely be some demand issues we call contain with the streets focus on you saw it last week right like the Bears scratching their heads like why is this stock not going down giv numbers got low because the street is focused on autonomous Robotics and and that ultimately if you look where they are in the Trump Administration musk is in a you know he continues to play chess others playing checkers relative to the situation one of the big arguments especially is the China us trade War really heats up or trade dance whatever you want to call it there is a question about whether pushes China even more to develop a parallel Tech sphere to the US that becomes dominant in its own right that might be more amenable to a number of countries around the world how realistic is that to you does that become more of a possibility I think it's not realistic to just because Invidia I mean we just continue at high scale gpus in terms of true build outs you need Nidia there's one red phone who goes to Genson now obviously deep seek that was kind of the White Knuckle moment everyone's like does this change the whole narrative I think more has come out about that people realize you know maybe the bark is a lot worse than the bite look you'll have a decoupling in terms of what's happening in China in the US but negotiations it's so important because again us needs China China needs us and I think that's why it's very very important especially when it comes to chips that this could be the coupling but not get in the way of what I view as a generational Tech environment in terms of uh you know what we see with AI Nvidia monster runup over the last few years got a say that up front but 22% draw down in the past few months why hasn't that stock recovered we had a week we worked out the Deep seek is maybe not what people thought it was and here we are we're still rolling over why and I think that there's a few reasons one it's just like Microsoft has you know Apple they've sold even after I think better than fear numbers I think there's there's worries just in general about like can they continue to sustain it if any little thing happens flying the ointment stock gets crushed so you seen a little bit of a riskof but look I just continue to view it 69 months from now we look back at this sure as a golden buying opportunity not the time where there's something structurally wrong and numbers don't or we've just found better vehicles to play the play the theme which it's pal but but but to that point that's why you look at like again that that's a if you look at that paler quarter they could print that press release off put in the L in terms of just how strong it was and it shows what they're doing in terms of pound tiers I believe one of the best plays in AI but to your point there are look as a second third derivatives take hold from Google to Salesforce to others there's going to be other ways to play it's not just about MA 7 there's going to be others that that play into this amidst its stock rallies Nvidia experienced a dip falling below evaluation of 30X forward earnings estimates however if history is any guide such drops have prefaced significant gains nvidia's impressive earning track record and Innovative prow keep experts optimistic its balanced offering of AI tools and services generates substantial Revenue all while maintaining high profitability with gross margins consistently surpassing 70% joining us for more is Dan IES the global head of Technology research at wed Bush also here with us for the whole hour is Nancy tangler CEO and chief investment officer at laugher Tangler Investments thank you both for being here with us right now let's talk about Dan the epicenter of all of this and you've been a notable bull on many of these companies many of the technologies that are at the center of the Meltdown today does this worry you I mean to my in my view it's a top three buying opportunity that I've seen in the last decade for for Tech and the reason I'm saying I spend the whole weekend talking to Tech Executives cios individuals that I know that are going down the sort of AI arms race or going through use cases in no way of really 25 companies does this change their sort of plans and a lot of these could be seven eight you know even upper eight figure type budgets I just continue to view this is It's a model and a lot of the details I think still need to be vet out in terms of 6 million do they actually have the h100s how they actually built it but this is something we're going to look back on and I think the street and the market got this way wrong in no way does it Dent our botht these that's what we've been telling clients really since the weekend these are the times you own these names Dan not all of the companies at the center of the selloff today are necessarily affected the same way chip stocks Nvidia Kelly mentioned it a half a trillion dollars in market cap lost that's more than the size of Exxon Mobile that's roughly the size of United Health Group in terms of an entire company lost in market value some are affected more than others Mega Cap Technology not as much so across the board as say Nvidia per se when this is a buying opportunity how much of a buying opportunity and how specific do you have to be well first un envidia that continues to be I think the Golden Goose in terms of what Jensen and that company are ultimately there is one chip in the world there's one GPU that's few in Ai and and it's Nvidia and when you think about these build outs when we talk about the Enterprise the two trillion of AI catbacks next three years that doesn't change from Deep se you know we're talking about one 1,000 of ultimately the buildout that you're going to need for a lot of these Enterprise use cases you look at names like paler you look at the hyperscalers I could argue with inferencing if you actually think costs are coming down it's actually bullish for even some of the software players names like sales for service now Oracle and others I just think this is one when you look at Nvidia I think we sit here 6 9 12 months now look at this as a moment it was a golden buying opportunity and in no way changes our bull thesis for where this is all head this historical EB and flow accentuates the possib possibility of another Peak what does this mean for potential investors or those already holding shares the broad consensus indicates that nvidia's stock after its valuation dip is poised for another pulse racing surge despite the inherent uncertainties of the stock market nvidia's Financial Health dominant Market stance and Relentless Innovation establish a compelling narrative for its futu let's act like today didn't happen as you were looking at the universe of getting exposure to AI across you know a number of different let's call it just ancillary Industries but or or straight at a broadcom or straight at you know some part of the the the Legacy players we know about where are you coming into today before this news look Tim I think you're you're looking at not just Broad but what I believe is sort of the second third derivatives I think this is bullish for software I think when you look at names like salesforce.com mango of course names like paler and others because as the data centers get built it's skating where the Puck's going who where are the use cases that's really what the key is going to be over the call it next two three four quarters I think it's really this is bullish for software because data centers they get built out the use cases are going to be software driven but the use cases aren't clear right now I mean are we going to be at a point where we have the data centers in place but the use cases that part of the equation hasn't exactly caught up yeah I think right now that's actually it's starting to catch I I think we saw what beny off in sales force we've seen it with service now paler and and now the use cases are really going to start to explode because these companies when you talk about all the AI cap X it's about the multiplier for every dollar spent on an Nvidia chip we with an $8 to10 multiply across the rest of tech that's bullish for all these data center players bullish for software and that's going to really be the focus going into earning season in terms of playing out these sort of next derivatives of AI nvidia's current stock trajectory is a fascinating study of resilience and promise following its recent valuation drop patterns suggest a rejuvenating upward rally may be on the horizon this isn't a blind leap into the void it's a strategic play backed by nvidia's Financial Integrity market dominance and zealous commitment to Innovation
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