저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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Cathie Wood는 사모신용·사모펀드발 부실과 파산 증가를 경고하며, 2024~2025년 미국 경기를 비관적으로 본다. 고용지표에서 자국민 고용 감소와 평균시급 상승을 근거로 롤링 리세션이 실제 침체로 전환될 수 있다고 주장한다. 소매점 폐점 24% 증가, 2023년 파산 637건 등을 수치로 제시한다. 반면 암호화폐 규제(FIT21 법안, SAB 121 폐지 법안)의 입법 진전과 현물 비트코인 ETF 승인을 긍정적으로 평가하며, 혁신(기술)이 생산성과 마진을 지탱할 것이라 본다.
다듬은 글
there is trouble brewing in it's not just brewing in real estate in office and multif family real estate it is here and in private Equity it is here we are hearing of private uh credit companies private equity and private credit private credit companies who are being forced to take Equity uh because uh companies uh basically would go bankrupt you know they've basically run out of cash I think you're going to hear more and more about that and we're also seeing a lot more bankruptcies just poof but these are not getting the headlines Arc invest founder Co and CIO kathywood continues to maintain a pessimistic outlook on the US economy for 2024 and 2025 in a post on social media platform X would warned of an intense search for cash and safety in the US Stock markets comparable to the Great Depression of the early 1930s she stated in our view the search for cas cash and safety in the equity markets today is as intense as during the Great Depression in the early 1930s when fear dissipated the market brought an out and rewarded risk-taking once again in the fourth quarter as the fed.
plot began pointing to much lower interest rates the bull market and equities broaden dramatically thus far this year the opposite has happened in our view more price deflation and lower interest rates will activate coiled equities in the latest episode of her monthly in the no broadcast would shares crucial economic indicators and Market signals which she believes indicate turbulent times ahead for the US economy and markets one indicator wood is particularly concerned about is the growing number of bankruptcies and Retail closures thousands of brick and mortar retail and dining establishments have shut down across the United States in recent months due to inflation stagnant wages and higher borrowing costs data from retail tracker cor site shows a 24% increase in store closures in 20124 compared to the same period last year while a few stores like Dollar General and 7-Eleven plan to open new ations cor site reported a 4% decline in new openings compared to 2023 what warns that despite the official narrative that all is well with the US economy and markets signs of looming troubles could plunge the entire economy into a deep recession stop you don't have time don't miss out this 2025 Bull Run educate yourself first ahead of the crowd we have created the ultimate step-by-step crypto cheat guide that will guide you this bull run unlock the secrets of crypto and make smarter Investments today now by clicking on the link below to get your exclusive copy just under $10 you know when I went through all of the economic indicators and said okay this one came out uh better than expected this one worse uh the ratio last month was about 3 to one almost four to one uh worse to better uh so the economy head some headline numbers look fine and one of them is the employment report that came out today um so the employment report again had something for everyone non-farm payroll employment 272,000 uh% increase that was much better than the 180,000 expected the previous month was revised down to 165 so that was somewhat weak um but nonetheless stronger than expected the household the household employment is uh dro by 48,000 people now what we're learning as we go through and parse through the employment who's who's gaining employment well foreign born um uh immigrants are are gaining employment some of them legal some of them not legal um it is native born people in the United States who are losing their jobs this is very clear now uh foreign born employment is out to an all-time high native born employment is is down and falling uh so that's that's very interesting to us and it was very weak the the month before at 25,000 as well uh the unemployment rate we we've now got a 4 handle 4% uh remember it had been in the low 3% range and and then it picked up to the high 3% range now we're at 4% that was worse than expected average hourly earnings better than expected if you're a wage earner but worse than expected if you're the FED 0.4% uh expectation 0.3% now the previous month was 0.2% maybe that averages out to 0.3 but nonetheless hotter as the FED would say average work week was just flat uh private hours worked uh pretty flat that's not a strong sign temporary help the last uh the last uh indicator that I think the FED really pays attention to down 14,000 and it was down 12,000 the previous so it has been in a declining trend for a while as have the leading indicators I think when history is written and these data are revised and they are usually revised after a year and then especially after five years I think this rolling recession that we've been talking about um uh will have turned into an outright recession sooner uh than than the statistics have been uh uh representing so uh and you know what also explains that is earnings reports earnings reports um sure there are some great earnings reports Walmart has had great earnings Reports most other retailers have and Costco as well most other retailers terrible reports as these headline numbers come out and these headline stocks report I think the sense that is that all is well but when you dig into more earnings reports you will see that is not true and that margins are coming down uh and that that um uh we think is going to ACR to the benefit of innovation Innovation solves problems um technology is going to help increase productivity and uh keep those margins as high as possible sanpi Global Market intelligence recorded 62 new bankruptcy filings in May and 275e to date filings for 2024 just too fewer than the 277 filings during the same period in 2023 despite easing borrowing conditions 637 bankruptcies were filed in 2023 just one fewer than in the tumultuous 2020 making it the third highest since 2010 with ongoing struggles related to high interest rates and shifting consumer spending patterns particularly among the poorest Americans experts predict that 2024 could be even worse in her video Kathy also discusses the shifting political Dynamics in the United States especially regarding the cryptocurrency industry recently the US House of Representatives passed the financial Innovation and technology for the 21st century act which establishes a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency and delineates responsibilities between the more crypto-friendly commodity Futures Trading commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission under Gary gensler's leadership the bill requires that blockchain networks recognized as functional and decentralized be under the purview of the cftc while those recognized as functional but centralized will be under the purview of the SEC according to Cathy the bill is a significant victory for the cryptocurrency industry highlighted by the fact that 71 Democrats crossed party lines to vote in favor Kathy also discusses President Joe Biden's veto of the resolution to repeal the the sec's staff accounting bulletin 121 and its implications for the industry moving forward here are more clips from the video interesting thing from an innovation point of view uh that has happened on the fiscal policy front or on the legislative front is uh that Sab 121 and fit or fit21 uh both of those are uh crypto uh legislation that actually pass through the house uh fit21 stands for financial innovation technology 21 uh the 21st century uh act now the first one was vetoed by President uh Biden and uh he considered it I'm going to look at my notes here um inappropriate uh an in inappropriate constraint on the SEC uh which needs to put uh guard rails uh on such um innovation in order to protect consumers uh fit21 uh passed in in the house with 76 Democrats voting for it the Sab 121 passed in the house with 21 Democrats uh voting for it this is very important uh crypto or digital assets has become a single isue uh vote for many people out there and uh clearly these Democrats have been getting the message because uh the party had been reticent uh to to vote for anything uh crypto oriented uh Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and others uh uh having had such a impact on on that side of the aisle um now at the same time we have former uh president Trump uh taking crypto donations and making a pledge to uphold the rights to self- custody in the digital asset realm um this is huge and reinforces the notion that this is becoming a campaign election issue and for young people in particular it's a very important issue uh so uh this is this is progress uh this is the three branches of government balancing one another out uh the executive branch okay President Biden vetoed one of these bills um and then uh the judicial branch the judicial branch has basically said to the SEC you are out of of line in a number of cases here uh very notably the grayscale case which um which ushered in the spot uh Bitcoin ETFs of course um and so uh we're we're focused on it and uh happy that it's an election issue as these uh pieces of legislation passed the third branch of government at least one of uh one part of the branch that's the house um it remains to be seen if the Senate will take up fit the fit 21 act uh it is an election year uh a number of Democrats are are voting now on the side of crypto understanding how important it is uh to a significant portion of the electorate out there uh so that's the most important thing that's happened on fiscal policy and normally we're not talking about innovation on when it comes to fiscal policy we're talking about taxes and spending and so forth and those are campaign election issues uh but we'll get more into those as the uh campaign uh year progresses here a few years ago no one would have thought that crypto would become a mainstream political issue in the United States especially not after the events involving FTX and other crypt related firms in 2022 yet less than 2 years after the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange and its sister firm Alam research the US Securities and Exchange Commission has approved several spot Bitcoin ETFs and is on the verge of doing the same for spot ethereum ETFs presidential candidates including former president Donald Trump are also showing support for cryptocurrencies to sway voters we are only about 6 months into the year but it has already been a historic one for Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency space do you think the US economy is heading for more periods of uncertainty and Chaos please share your thoughts on Cathy Wood's predictions and outlook on the US economy in the comments below for more daily dose crypto news check out these two awesome videos on your screen click now and we will see you on the next video
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