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2022.01.21 기준 미국 증시 급락 후 변동성 확대 전망. 나스닥·S&P500 지지선 테스트 예상, 빅테크 실적·FOMC(1/26) 앞두고 불확실성 지속. 다만 1~3월 변동성 후 4~5월 반등 계절성과 중간선거 해 이후 강세 가능성 언급. 원자재(은·금)는 강세 지속 관측, 비트코인은 4만달러 이탈 및 헤드앤숄더 우려로 약세, 테슬라·애플·ARKK·러셀2000 약세 전망. 반도체도 추가 하락 지지선(275, 260) 주시.
다듬은 글
in today's video we take a look at right now in what has been an incredible volatile start to 2020 the stock market looks to be crashing at this point the crypto market is putting pressure on the downside and commodities are funnily enough still going up but will the stock market stop here or is it coming back down we'll take a look at all of that and more right now stay tuned guys it's sure to be a good one okay welcome back everybody to the market close 20th of january 2022 in our show that goes through everything to do with the key levels data and everything else that you should be looking at right now in the markets let's think about what's going on right now the headlines are saying stock market could drop another 10 soon says a top strategist yes the market pundits are coming out they're starting to put in their crash figures and we're going to start seeing things that are going to be drastic people are going to be starting to call 50 drops 30 drops and 40 drops the question is will that actually occur let me know in the comments down below what your prediction is top to bottom for the stock market correction at this period is it going to stop right here or maybe only go 15 20 percent like many of us expect or is it going to be more let us know and remember to subscribe if you enjoy market content that covers everything on the daily show let's move over to the stock market heat map here it was growth under fire again nvidia amazon apple netflix after the close the first big tech earnings got really obliterated massive massive sell-off there and could be an opportunity for a lot of investors when they're starting to look at it if you watched our previous video where we were talking about the rip and then of course selling that rip that's exactly what did occur we saw a rip happen in the morning it went up as much as two percent and the switch was brutal iwm led the charge in the nasdaq the two kind of growthy more bashed stock markets or stock indices at this stage and then the algorithms got control and sold it off a big switch here upwards of four percent plus for the day it doesn't bode well for the markets but again it's all about being able to clarify what's going on right now and to not freak out and that's a lot of what we're here to discuss today should we be freaking out or shouldn't we let's think about some of these sectors that we're doing better some of the beaten down sectors actually tan solar hitting at key technical support holding a little bit better semiconductors down three percent we will have a big breakdown of semiconductors a little bit later on and we see the rest of the market across the board down but it was really tech and just some of the defensives holding up as much as possible now we're in earnings season we mentioned netflix next week we start even bigger earnings and then the week after that it's going to be a very volatile period remember as well the fed will be coming out to discuss the first rate hike to discuss their statement that's going to happen on wednesday in new york make sure you have your economic calendar set that's not only a big day for that but it's going to be a big day for tesla reports as well so we'll have to find out whether they can continue the growth story let's look at some quick stats we've brought these in in the previous video these are stats around the idea of when the first rate hike actually happened what happened to the stock market so each time previously it is dropped over the next three months now we don't know what happened in between that period but of course it was dropping and it did end up having weakness the key here though is after six months and after 12 months the market has still regained positivity so while it may look like it's weak right now the market should improve another stat is midterms so we've got this combo of interest rate hikes and a combo of mid-term election results coming through a very negative style year but the payoff the year after still being good so the question will be are you going to be a bear over the long term here for the next couple of years in markets i don't think so and i think a lot of you out there are coming to that same conclusion this could be a real opportunity that is also based in seasonality we see a period of january february march being highly volatile in markets in general and of course the tech sector generally being the weakest but look at that april may march kind of stat that turnaround story that often happens in tech there is a lot of seasonality pointing to some volatility still some key levels we'll be looking at but then a continuation of the bull run so if you're freaking out yes there could be more downside but at the same time the overall pitcher should be positive and that's just due to stats and also where we're at in terms of the market a correction here although a lot of people don't believe it is healthy for the markets we haven't seen an s p 500 underneath the 20 weekly in quite some time in fact since the pandemic rally began we need it to cool off and when it cools off it becomes a much better tradable market and investable market a thing that goes vertical to the moon is not necessarily good let's get into the technical analysis here u.s two-year actually coming off its peak so that wasn't really the big catalyst for why it continued to fall we're just in uncertainty and the market hates uncertainty and that's one of the big bits also vic's going up of course uncertainty and sell-off from the algos continuing that run up to the fomc statement we probably expect volatility to continue through to possibly that wednesday period and the vix traders that have been long this week have been happy but you've got to be nimble and fast in these markets remember when the vix is above 20 guys it doesn't mean swing trading the market it generally means scalping day trading and finding investment levels that you like pcc not much to report still sitting around one to one showing that there's a good balance of puts and calls in the current market and this could be starting to show as well if we see these puts starting to rise up there and hitting key supports on technicals that maybe we're forming at least an initial base in the markets we'll continue to watch that silver hit the target so 2450 ding ding ding we hit the resistance and we've sold off a little bit from that point another strong day from silver we reported on that as a breakout through the last couple of days and commodities have done really well platinum palladium silver and even gold all still looking quite strong and when we put this in perspective of a weekly you'll notice there's still a large large runway to be had here should we see the turnaround story continue so we're looking for pullbacks here movements to things like this next resistance at the 2537 and if it manages to get through there then we could even be talking about a really nice rally here in silver moving forward gold is similar it got through 1830 it's now sitting on 1841 next big resistance is 1870 and when we go into something like the daily you'll notice it kind of looks weak here it looks like oh wow there's a shooting star style candle if the market is able to breach this level through day trade you expect the market to continue on to something like an 1870 in the next couple of sessions because it's taking out those stop losses be wary around 1830 we need turnaround on the smaller time frames like we always say on this channel lightning bolts double bottoms accumulation bases engulfing candles all of these types of technical analysis is what you want to see at these key zones it's really important we see that on oil texas of course or u.s oil here we have the sell-off kind of signs we have two rejection candles following each other coming into the previous resistance being support we may come down to the 20 moving average here we'll need to watch that we notice that 20 moving average has been a bit of a dip by day trade style so if it continues to sell off be wary around this 80 to 81 for us oil and it does still look weak so smaller time frames everything else we hit our profit at that point you're really just looking for further consolidation it's kind of like what we've always done with oil we wait for consolidation we trade it we wait for consolidation we trade it down here was amazing here was great consolidation occurred we got the breach we traded it consolidation we got the breach we traded it that's what you're looking for on the market so we'll come back to this on the weekend video let's move over to stocks though and tesla holding up amazingly well just underneath a thousand but the rally happened upwards of four percent and then sold straight off into the thousand dollar market it doesn't look strong on a chart and with the current sell-off in the futures if that continues down you'd have to think tesla may be trying to play a little bit of catch up very very soon so we've got a sell-off going on here currently in the markets underneath a thousand we have supports being found but it looks wary on the daily rejection week rejection week a movement under here could really start the algos and we asked in the previous video what you think as a community this will go to a lot of people answering with 880 into our previous trend line and around that 900 brackets so while tesla may fall it still looks very strong in terms of sentiment overall i mean it's holding much better than the rest of the markets at this stage be careful around a thousand it still remains day trade and scalpy let's move over to apple what's going on there weakness we reported the weakness here on apple it rallied went to 170 sold off big selloff here and this opens up this idea of apple coming down to like a 150 or 152 why because it's like a double top we take the tops or the resistance is over here we take the range we extrapolate that out and that's when it hits that 152.
we've also got that great trend line that we've been using since really early days of the pandemic and that's been a very solid level for apple so we do have great support lines coming up it just hasn't hit it yet and further weakness or any rallies probably will be met by negative sentiment at this stage until we snap above these kind of previous resistances like 170 it's looking negative on the big apple at this stage let's move over to arc no signs of recovery here yet weekly still down still bad on the trade every rally this thing has tends to be met by quite a lot of sell demand but you know it's good because we can start to move down some key levels we'll be looking for breaches 81 we've now rejected that three times with wix a pretty big key zone we probably expect further weakness you can see the flow of funds probably coming out of this at the moment people are losing faith in rk and arc in general that's usually a time where you start to say wait a second we're kind of interested in this sector and these hyper growths but it doesn't show signs of accumulation bases we've got a weekly 200 coming up we need double bottoms we need lightning bolts wait for the accumulation base otherwise will be stuck in another barber style situation and you don't really want to be in that when the markets fall like this they can move very very quickly and for some people what they're doing is they're taking the distance of the previous fall off they're extrapolating that out and that's pulling us back down to basically pre pandemic highs so around that 60 to 62 will it happen time's going to tell we're going to be looking every day at this to find that base move over to iwm the russell 2000 that wyckoff distribution obviously the false breakout we had up here which has turned out to be kind of a max payne style scenario we now have what is pretty much a massive break underneath unless the friday session can do some miracles maybe it'll rally we'll find out the current futures are definitely selling off but we'll find out there 210 it would have to breach back above to really reverse this and it's still looking quite negative with a wyk off distribution this is showing us that the small cap companies not only are susceptible to raising the interest rate but also they're not healthy people don't like the valuations on them anymore and this is pointing towards a 184 for iwm before we might actually start to form base or even lower do we hit a weekly 200 i hope not but that's the kind of thing that's going on rallies here are going to find tough times 210 we've got previous supports being resistance that's going to be a bit of an issue and it just throughout this remember be nimble be fast bear markets aren't easy waiting for accumulation bases are boring but once you do it and once you start to see these things it can pay off because you haven't triggered like everyone else and fo mode into the wrong zones let's move over to the ndx it's well underneath our full-on ascending channel here this is our community channel we've had for some time and you'll notice that it rallied up here and actually off the bases it almost hit the trend line and then just sold straight off it so it was very aggressive and it looks like the futures market is trying to push down to this fourteen thousand six hundred now what is around 14 600 the monthly s3 pivot that's the support 3 or the s3 pivot basically we have at the same point as that previous support back in september october and previous support back over here in july so this is where we expect the market to probably try to find some kind of buying pressure it's exactly where you expect it to occur and we look here for lightning bolt smaller time frame day trades double bottoms those types of reversals that's the thing you want on the nasdaq at this level if it shoots straight through it well then we have to start looking at the next level and i think the s p 500 or 14 000 here will be the next level for it so be careful we're going to start needing to draw fibs on the whole thing here as well which basically means we take the full distance we draw our fib retracement and we say okay well if the market's coming down where is a key zone so 23 6 is very common and of course 38.2 in that deeper pullback that really should mark the worst of the correction should it continue down at this stage we're looking at that monthly s3 and the previous support s p 500 it looks like this weekly 20 is going to close below next stop is generally the 4300 here or the weekly 50 exponential where we have previous support which could become support again it may even happen who knows before the fair to come out with their announcement seems unlikely but you never know we need clarity in times of uncertainty and this is what's causing all of this mass hysteria and mass sell-off the market hates uncertainty and it's really punishing a lot of traders that have probably taken over leverage in this last bull run over here and if that's you that's really unfortunate i'm not happy about it that sucks but it is one of those things that you've just got to be aware that in the markets they love taking advantage of a whole bunch of things and when the sell-offs occur this may be your biggest sell-off yet in the stock market if you're new to it they are brutal they are quick and they often have a lot of fake kind of moves to the upside really quickly similar to the last session and sell-offs down we do expect at this stage probably to close underneath the weekly 20 and we'll come back to you with some clarity there it looks like the nasdaq is the one that's going to hit the major support in the next session let's move over to semiconductors quickly another one that's hitting the first support level for us 275 getting reached big sell-off occurred straight into that level there is also of course the 260 after that and then so on and so forth so will the next session open up red and then possibly go green watch the zone watch the nasdaq be nimble be fast and of course be making sure that you have a stop loss to take profit and an entry point if you are looking to trade people that trade without stop losses can get stuck in some really bad positions and it's pretty unfortunate move over the crypto market now things here are not looking great are they bitcoin is getting pressured we had the close of the u.s market it was looking okay and then all of a sudden it just sold straight off and it's been following a little bit of the nasdaq here we're kind of on the point where if we don't rally here in the next 24 hours we'll get a new close underneath forty thousand that's a close on a significant time frame and will we then be pressuring thirty thousand before you know it a lot of people have been talking about this head and shoulders the left shoulder the head the right shoulder pretty big deal here on the markets it's not looking good we'll have to find out the next 24 hours whether it can rally back up but do be warned this is not a healthy looking market if you're yet to enter into this type of thing you're looking for those accumulation bases to show okay cool here's the strength now we see the rally similar to over here where you get that rally there's plenty more usually on the table when crypto gets started not a good sign and the same thing's coming through ethereum a new low will it close below the previous candle doesn't look great i mean that's a full-on movement up and then a bang rejection straight back down not looking that positive at this stage just a reminder in the news fomc statement federal funds rate and all of that big stuff is next week wednesday january 26th at 2 p.m to 2 30 p.m new york time be careful out there guys make sure to subscribe if you enjoy the channel please give it a thumbs up it does help us out and comment down below with any questions that you might have see you soon and have a great friday worth of trade and of course a great weekend bye for now
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