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jordani is joining us now is president at georgini research Ed for your time in the U.S head are we could could this be one of those meaningful bounces well I think it's a meaningful bounce I mean just what we had today was quite meaningful uh you know 2.6 or so in one day after an entire week where we were down 2.9 so it's a pretty impressive rebound I think it's partly because the purchasing manager's data was weaker than expected which suggests that the fed's tightening may not be quite as severe as uh people feared okay may not be as severe as what people feared well Ed um you know we were just debating as to is this the end of the bare phase for Global Equity market so is it just a relief rally uh what's your best guess of how things could Shape Up from here I think it's a relief rally I'm not particularly bearish I think the Market's going to go sideways with a lot of volatility uh we're still going to have the Federal Reserve raising the FED funds rate at their November meeting that'll be early November so in about a month we're probably going to get another 75 basis point increase in the FED funds rate but a lot can happen in in one month as we just saw in September and it does feel as though September was the worst month uh uh is a bad month but historically in October sometimes does better especially if September created some buying opportunities so I I think the worst is over in terms of the downside but I don't see a tremendous amount of upside anytime soon I think we we need to get to a point where the FED clearly is done tightening hmm okay so we will get a 75 basis point in the U.S in a month months time okay got that you know uh Ed uh it's so much a growing sort of chatter whether the FED will slow its pace of hikes and yes you know the continued question of a pivot when is a pivot not really a pivot is is uh you know the point is that if they may when you say a pivot what you mean is that you go from tightening to easing but when you just stop tightening I mean that is also a pivot isn't it I mean or at least slow the pace of titling yeah correct I mean you know we can call pivots whatever we want uh when when the FED changes its opinion uh that's a pivot uh but it uh sometimes can be based on data that they didn't expect to go the way it went what we saw is in July the Fed was still talking about possibly pausing in in September or November and uh in August they were suddenly talking about just raising interest rates as far as necessary to bring inflation down so that was a pretty hawkish pivot and I think the next pivot that the markets are expecting is a more dovish or dovish pivot or let's call it less hawkish pivot based on an economy that's slowing down with inflation continuing to moderate at the big uh good morning the big debate has been on uh decoupling right for emerging markets and India of course has done well but there are other Emerging Markets as well which have done well but uh can this happen that the U.S market uh stays weak while other Emerging Markets keep rallying is is that a possibility well no I the way I see it is uh the the US among developed countries the US is widely viewed as a safe haven which is why the dollar has been so strong and why money has actually come into the United States so I think on a relative basis the U.S stock market and bond market will probably do better than some of the stock and bond markets in the other developed countries among emerging economies India stands out as doing particularly well because China's got all sorts of problems and the strong dollar tends to be bad news for emerging markets that have borrowed a lot in dollars which doesn't seem to be the case for India so India stands out among emerging economies and the U.S stands out among developed economies so since India stands out amongst emerging economies and do you believe that this is a great buying opportunity for investors here in India purely because we didn't fall as much when Global markets fell and now Cooperative you know data has improved quite a bit which is the the basis for a bull market right well I think what India is going for it is that uh at least on a relative basis India looks very good uh so not only does India look good in absolute terms but to compared to some of the problems that other Emerging Markets are having you know a lot of emerging economies are very dependent on selling commodities around the world and because of the strong dollar and the slowing global economy commodity prices have been coming down we also know that companies like apple are moving towards India and away from China and again that benefits uh investors who are looking at in putting their money in India rather than China so again in absolute terms and also in relative term India looks good among emerging economies okay on relative terms India looks good amongst emerging economies is there any other risk on the horizon now Ed it seems like most of the big risks have now played out as we head into the end of the year but you tell us what does the what is your own prognosis no I I don't think just because we had one really good day that uh the worst is over I mean there's still a concern here that inflation might have peaked but it's not coming down fast enough which then puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates more I I think there's one more High coming uh in November 75 basis points and then maybe in December 50 basis points and that might be it but that's actually a fairly contrary view there are a lot of people including people at the FED who matter a lot more than I do that think that they're going to be raising interest rates going into the first half of next year and that could creates a problem for something something could break which is what the markets have been concerned about and as you know we got this strange situation where as the fed's raising interest rates people fear that something will break but they also believe that if something breaks the federal stops they're raising rates so I'm not quite sure whether if something breaks whether Market goes up or down and uh you know OPEC plus is talking about taking a million barrels a day out of the market uh what will that do to oil prices well I've observed that uh here in the United States because of the surge in gasoline prices in the summer U.S consumers of gasoline have actually reduced their usage of gasoline in the United States by about a million barrels per day so it looks to be as OPEC is is trying to basically take that million barrels per day out of the supply side of the oil market and that kind of leaves the oil prices essentially unchanged I know they were up today and the news but I don't think we're going to go back to 100 I think we're going to stay in the sort of 80 90 dollar range and I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that uh winter is coming in Europe it's likely to fall into a very severe energy crisis recession uh China is in a recession as we've discussed before with regards to their property market so I think uh the global demand situation for oil is such that it kind of makes sense for uh pick to reduce their supply if they don't want the price to collapse okay winter is coming well for all Game of Thrones fans the winter is coming was at the start of something really terrible right I didn't know you'd have to wait for that in real life as well that's right it's relevant okay Ed thanks a lot for joining in and uh all the best have a great week thanks a lot well that's Eddie out any of you had any research sake that uh the worst is not over just yet inflation is still quite high and across the globe we could be headed for another round of a downtick this was just a relief rally that we've seen overnight let's slip into a quick break on the other side our entire research team will be with us to give us list of top 10 stocks stay tuned foreign
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