저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 미국 긴축으로 단기 하락 압력이 크지만 인도는 상대적으로 유망하며, 모든 투자자는 안전자산으로 금을 일부 보유해야 한다는 견해. 미국 시장: 연준이 물가(CPI 약 8%)를 웃도는 금리 인상을 계속할 것으로 봄. 금리가 약 9%까지 가야 할 수 있다고 주장. S&P 500은 지지선 바로 위에 있으며, 이 지지선이 깨지면 추가 하락이 나타날 것이라고 경고. 연준 전망: 정부의 전략비축유 방출로 휘발유 가격이 일시 하락했지만 일시적이며, 선거 이후 물가가 다시 오를 것으로 예상. 따라서 연준의 금리 압박은 계속될 것이라고 봄. 시장이 피벗(금리 인하 전환) 기대에 과도하게 반응하는 것은 잘못이며, 연준은 물가를 2%까지 낮출 때까지 긴축을 멈추지 않을 것이라고 주장. 인도 시장: 인도는 미국 등과 달리 강세를 보이며 정책 효과가 좋다고 평가. 제조업이 중국에서 인도로 이전되고 있으며, 애플도 최신 아이폰 생산을 인도로 옮겼다고 언급. 소프트웨어와 인프라 관련 종목을 주목하며 Apollo 등을 거론. 현재 비중은 대만이 여전히 인도보다 높으며 점진적으로 조정할 계획. 중국 시장: 중국은 당대회 이후에도 정책 기조가 빠르게 바뀌지 않을 것으로 봄. 외국인 투자 유치를 위해 노력하겠지만 투자자들이 중국을 기피해 어려움이 있다고 평가. 인도가 채권지수에 편입되면 자금 유입이 늘 수 있다고 전망. 유럽 금융: 크레딧 스위스 등 유럽 은행 문제는 중앙은행이 대형 은행 지원에 나설 것이므로 대형 사태로 번지지 않을 가능성이 크다고 봄. 다만 대형 은행도 위험할 수 있다는 경고 필요. 암호화폐: 전 세계 통화공급의 약 2% 수준이지만 유통 속도가 빨라 소비에 영향. 미국에서 암호화폐로 돈을 번 사람들의 소비가 계속될 것으로 봄. 금: 투기 목적이 아니라 안전자산으로서 모든 포트폴리오에 일부 보유 권장. 크레딧 스위스 파산 같은 사태 시 유용. 기업 및 리스크: 기업 선택 기준으로 자본수익률, 부채, 이익 성장을 봄. 인도에서 아직 확신을 주는 기업 조합은 찾지 못했다고 언급. 정치적 압력으로 연준 독립성이 흔들릴 수 있다는 리스크도 언급. 출연자 전망: 미국은 단기 약세, 인도는 상대적 강세, 중국은 단기 변화 제한적으로 봄.
다듬은 글
us we we are also now joined by uh a famous investor a student investor and someone who really is has seen emerging markets for a long long time Mark Mobius is founder at Mobius Capital partners and he's joining us right now to take some questions mark great to have you always here on CNBC TV 18. it's been a while uh I mean a bit of a gap and since then so much has happened right uh in June the markets globally made a bit of a bottom we got a trading bounce that has gotten sold into especially viciously in the U.S how are things looking to you now uh starting with U.S and the impact that we will see because of what's happening there well first of all thank you for those kind words uh regarding the U.S I've been saying for quite some time now the FED is going to continue raising rates and that of course is putting a damper on the market uh people must remember that the the playbook for central banks around the world particularly the FED is that they want to raise interest rates above the inflation rate now the inflation rate that they use versus the CPI the Consumer Price Index which now stands at about eight percent that means interest rates have to go to nine percent of course if the CPI stays in this level so I think more is in store for the markets and as you know for the S P 500 we're right at the support level if it breaks below the support level then we're going to see um more blood on the streets the interesting thing is that India is really bucking this trend it's amazing what the Indian Market has done and it speaks very well for the policies that the government has pursued and the general buoyancy of the Indian market is very good okay good afternoon so what what are you buying now in India because we have seen a clear shift IIT which was leading the value for three years has taken a big backseat while banks have started to outperform well we're looking at both uh software the systems for example would be one and we're looking at infrastructure related stocks uh like Apollo um Apollo 2.
so these are the kind of stocks we're looking at and we think uh those are the stocks that will perform very well going forward hi Mr Mobis uh you know the past as well you've been bullish on both those two names but uh you know in terms of approaching equities globally I think Taiwan was one of the highest allocations India and then China how have things changed for India have you increased weightage in the last few months if you could give us a you know a broad number out there and also is India now top of the pack well I think India is a really uh beginning to take more and more manufacturing share from China and I think the government policy this the so-called uh gati Shakti a policy uh uh you know speed speeding up the bureaucracy is going to be very very good for India you're going to see more and more companies moving manufacturing to India and as you know Apple has moved its latest uh iPhone manufacturing to India as well so I think these are very good signs going forward so we're going to be in the lookout for companies that manufacture this kind of equipment and also companies that are going to contribute more and more on the software side British in India has increased though uh Mr Mobis uh in the last few months since things are looking uh you know on the policy front uh uh you know the economy as well has recovered quite a bit uh have you increased weightage to India and what's the pecking order now you know Taiwan used to be number one I think uh in terms of exposure has India overtaken Taiwan now uh no not yet uh we of course continue to look at India's for possibilities of uh editions uh but as you know in our portfolios we move very very slowly when we have a stock that we think is going to be good we hang on to it and that's the reason why for example the stocks that we have in India we haven't sold we continue to hold them and the same thing is true in Taiwan although in Taiwan The Waiting has been pretty high so we want to reduce that by either decreasing Taiwan or increasing uh the com countries like India um you know you're giving us this thesis and we kind of explored that in some detail about Emerging Markets generally doing very well and uh foreign outflows out of India because of that not country specific uh and how there were some Global funds now which who were launching mandates ex-china Etc uh are you still seeing that that is one and second later this month in the middle of the month we have the big party conference in China many are expecting that you know the ones that is done they will kind of completely dramatically change their policies in terms of zero covered attitude towards businesses the Crackdown there Etc so there will be a big shift post that uh would you agree with that go on uh no I don't think the policy uh mandates in China will change very quickly particularly if she is the re-elected and becomes the Paramount leader again uh so I don't think there's going to be a big big shift however the Chinese are well aware that they need to have more uh dollars flowing into the economy they need more funds to support the economy so they will do their best to attract our foreign investors but within reason uh the problem is for them is the reluctance of many investors to go back into China I mean we've been in client meetings where we say well we want to talk about emerging markets and immediately the clients say we don't want to talk about China talk about anything else except China so a lot of people have been burned in China which means that India is in a pretty good position because the problem with India is that up to now they've been rather restrictive and the markets rather smaller less liquid but the interesting thing is that if India is added to the various uh Bond businesses emergency Market bonds indices that could mean more and more close into the Indian bond market and of course that could be accompanied by more flows into the equity Market as well okay Mark uh you know the other issue which is uh dominating headlines or at least Financial headlines is what's happening in Europe uh with credit space and even with you know DB perhaps do you reckon this could snowball into another Lehman or do you think it's much smaller but that's quite a surprise and the fact that you know you have a bank like Christmas uh uh in them in the news it's regarding that but what it does is it begins to people have people start thinking about emerging markets and thinking wait a minute you know Emerging Markets have been considered very risky and so forth but how about these big banks in Europe and America what's the situation there so in some ways it's quite favorable for emerging markets and for India where people begin to think well maybe we should diversify a little bit away from Europe and away from the US now I request you to stay on now we need to take a break and we'll come back and address more questions so for now the Nifty is down 200 points the bank next is down 600 points at the lows of the day will come back and we'll continue this conversation with Mark mobiles okay welcome back I mean it's a 200 point cut right now on the Nifty sixteen thousand eight ninety one at the absolute low point of the day is what we have here in conversation with Mark Mobius uh Mark sorry that point that my colleague Anuj was asking you about Europe and uh Credit Suisse Etc do you expect a accident to happen or no not this time I I saw but of course I've been around many times before when I said things like that no one really knows but my thinking is that it's probably not going to happen because uh central banks around the world certainly don't want this kind of event to take place so they will do their very best to support these large Banks nevertheless uh it's a warning for many people that we have to be careful even even the big boys can get into big trouble you know you've mentioned a few stocks in the past poly cab Apollo pipes uh I think you know the other one that you just mentioned was persistent systems as well any additions you've made with regard to the Indian markets as well and I recalled when we spoke earlier in 2022 when we spoke about real estate you said you'd rather not take a direct exposure you played by the cement Road a lot has changed since then and cement stocks out you have done very well any exposure out there uh no not yet we haven't found uh the right combination of factors in these companies to make us bullish we look at things like return on Capital we look at debt for example we don't have we want to have companies with debt and of course do I have earnings growth so the combination of these things not easy to find in any Market but I think in India we'll probably be able to find more and more going forward but not at this stage at least the other issue is about you know the the FED uh the fat pivot or the fat Port what's your view on what's happening in the in the US because inflation Still Remains uh quite quite a serious issue uh still above eight percent but a lot of people believe fed may have already overshot in terms of tightening and it's it's a tough question right to deal with but what's your expectation over there uh well my thinking is that the FED will continue to raise rates uh as the CPI does not really come down you must remember there's been sort of an artificial uh down play on the CPI because the government has released the Strategic oil reserves and that has pushed down the price of gasoline in America but this is going to be temporary I think after the election uh prices will come up again so I think all these factors makes me think that the FED will continue to put pressure on those interest rates and raise rates aggressively another thing you must continue to remember is that cryptocurrencies are a big thing not only in the US of course but globally they represent according to our oscillation about two percent of money supply that may seem to be small but the velocity of cryptocurrencies is quite remarkable so there are a lot of people in America and elsewhere that are spending cryptocurrencies which they found very very cheap when they first bought them and now they're making a lot of money they feel rich and will be continuing spend in that way in my recent visit to the U.S I didn't see any let up on spending the planes were full the tourist spots were full the theaters were full my feeling is that this kind of spending is probably going to continue for some time so so that's an important Point what you're saying is stop looking for a pivot at every given opportunity right because the market is seems to watch onto any bit of slightly Soft Data to say well this is it uh the pivot is coming I mean for example I think there's a closed door fed meeting later today which I think is a usual scheduled occurrence but uh you know markets got very excited saying well you know pivot may come later today uh would that be the right way to look at it well they're going to do what they said they will which is bring inflation down to two percent and only then will they rest when they're convinced basically so nothing now a mark well that's I think they are conditioned that they of course continue to look at it the pressure on them is terrific let's remember I would ask what you say the central bank is subject to political pressure and of course the current Administration in America does not want uh to see interest rates too high they don't want to kill the market so there's a lot of pressure on the FED nevertheless uh they're mandate is to bring that inflation break down and they're going to do anything that it takes to do so final question then uh what about the erstwhile darling gold uh you know you have said in the past it's been prudent to have some gold in your portfolio given the kind of uh you know variables at stake globally uh what's your reading now I think that everyone should have some gold in their portfolio uh not for speculative persist but for safety purposes in other words when things really go very bad let's say uh credit Swiss uh announces bankruptcy or one major Bank uh globally announces bankruptcy then uh things will get very bad it'll be good to have some gold in your portfolio all right Mark always a pleasure to talk to you thanks a lot for joining us today that's thank you about for my
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