Cathie Wood Crypto: Trillions Incoming! 😳

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결론: 캐시 우드는 비트코인이 17,000달러 부근에서 바닥을 다졌을 가능성이 있고, 블랙록-코인베이스 제휴 등 기관 자금 유입으로 장기적으로 크게 상승할 수 있다는 낙관적 입장이다. 비트코인 200주 이동평균선 분석 작년 11월 약 7만 달러 고점 후 최근 1만 7천 달러대까지 하락했고, 이는 200주 이동평균선을 하향 이탈한 부정적 신호였다. 기술적 분석가들은 이 선을 빠르게 회복하지 못하면 1만~1만 3천 달러까지 하락할 수 있다고 봤다. 이번에는 이동평균선(약 2만 1~2만 2천 달러대)을 회복해 안정화 신호가 나타났다. 이번 하락폭은 과거 80% 이상 급락과 달리 상대적으로 완만했다. 우드는 이동평균선 회복으로 1만 3천 달러 하락 가능성이 낮아졌다고 보지만, 공식적으로 바닥이 확정됐다고 명시하진 않았다. 블랙록-코인베이스 제휴의 영향 세계 최대 자산운용사 블랙록이 코인베이스와 제휴해 고객 기관에 암호화폐 접근성을 제공하기로 했다. 블랙록 알라딘 플랫폼의 운용자산은 약 40조 달러로 언급됐다. ARK의 연구에 따르면 기관은 변동성을 줄이려면 암호화폐에 2.5%, 수익률 대비 위험을 높이려면 6.5%를 배분할 수 있다. 이를 적용하면 블랙록 플랫폼에서만 약 1조 달러(2.5% 가정) 또는 약 3조 달러(6.5% 가정)의 수요가 생길 수 있다고 주장했다. 현재 전체 암호화폐 시가총액은 약 1조 달러 수준이다. 기관 자금 시나리오별 비트코인 가격 전망(우드 발언) 기관 1% 배분 시 비트코인은 약 4배 상승해 사상 최고가 부근(약 10만 달러 근접)을 회복할 수 있다고 제시했다. 2.5% 배분 시 현재 가격 대비 약 9배 상승 가능성을 언급했다. 6.5% 배분 시 20배 이상 상승 가능성을 제시했다. 이는 개인 고액자산가, 연기금, 보험사, 국부펀드 등 기관 자금만 가정한 시나리오다. 결론적 입장 200주 이동평균선(약 2만 3천 달러 부근)은 향후 방향을 결정할 중요한 가격대로 제시됐다. 우드는 이 가격대 돌파 방향이 50 대 50이라고 보면서도, 기관 자금 유입을 근거로 암호화폐 시장에 대해 매우 강세적인 입장을 유지했다. 출연자는 ARK Invest의 캐시 우드 및 팀의 월간 분석을 소개하는 형식이며, 진행자는 Investing Made Simple 채널 운영자다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. we just had the news that 20 trillion dollars of new capital will be getting access to crypto will this be enough to pull crypto out of its bear market now it's a hot debate right now whether crypto already bottomed back in june at a 17 000 bitcoin or whether it's just a bear market rally and a bigger crash is still yet to come welcome back all and as kathy wood and the team arc invest have just completed their monthly crypto analysis we'll be taking a look at the biggest insights and takeaways for the month including a major indicator that just got broken how the 20 trillion dollar blackrock news can impact the price of crypto and then we'll finish up showing exactly how all institutional capital can and probably will send crypto to the moon as always if you do enjoy anything in the video then drop a like always appreciated okay first up a major indicator just got broken so does this mean kryptos bear market is over or a bigger crash is still yet to come the 200 week moving average of bitcoin remember bitcoin peaked close to 70 000 last november and it got down to somewhere in the 17 000 range uh in um very recently um and that broke the 200 week moving average uh so that was a very negative sign so the the technicians out there were saying well if it cannot reclaim and get back up there pretty quickly then um then we're probably going to 10 to 13 000.

02. uh so uh it has reclaimed uh the 200-week moving average which is a little bit above i think 21 or 22 000 so that's that's reassuring we've seen some stabilization there and the decline this time around believe it or not it was pretty intense but was not as steep as it has been in the past normally it's more than 80 percent decline so this was close but we didn't quite get there so the 200-week moving average is a four-year chart which correlates to bitcoin's four-year halving cycle and historically when breached has turned out to be an excellent time to accumulate now kathy wood remains positive that because bitcoin reclaimed back above that we probably won't be going down to the 13 000 level however she hasn't taken an official stance saying that the bottom is in next up we just had one of the biggest pieces of news this year for crypto which was blackrock the world's largest asset manager choosing to partner with coinbase and what impact could this have on crypto prices the other reassuring piece of news recently that came out was an agreement yesterday between announced between blackrock and coinbase to partner so that blackrock could through its aladdin technology solutions ecosystem on which 40 trillion dollars worth of assets sit they wanted uh a seamless on-ramp into crypto that coinbase is going to to provide uh so this is another legitimization of bitcoin and um and crypto generally as a new asset class if we're right that 40 trillion just from blackrock's um uh platform uh hosting other institutions uh that would translate if you just uh took our study which uh which basically said if you want to access crypto but you want to minimize uh you're more focused on minimizing volatility than increasing your sharp ratio then you would put two and a half percent into crypto and if you're more interested in the sharp ratio so returns per uh measure of risk than you are about that about volatility you'd put six and a half percent so assuming that two and a half percent on this 40 trillion dollar platform that's one trillion dollars of demand now it's not that and and that would more than double uh the the crypto uh the bitcoin price right there if we just assumed it was all done in bitcoin so the institutional clients of blackrock have been screaming to get access to crypto and when you add all their assets together it's an incredible potential 20 trillion dollars of new capital for crypto and as you saw from kathy's calculation if the clients of blackrock just allocate two and a half percent this works out to be one trillion dollars of new capital and remember the entire crypto market right now is just over one trillion and if they allocate six and a half percent this works out closer to three trillion dollars and this is just from black rock alone now to finish up on a high note and to get you salivating like a puppy in a pie shop let's take a look at how all institutional capital can and most likely will be impacting crypto prices as it's huge this is a chart put together by yasin almandra and the team arc invest and basically what it shows is the hypothetical impact of all institutional investment on the price of bitcoin and the different categories we have high net worth individuals we have the mass affluent pension funds insurance companies and sovereign wealth funds and this is what it can potentially do to bitcoin's price and remember bitcoin's price right now is about thousand dollars and the all-time high was about sixty nine thousand and they've got three categories a one percent allocation two and a half percent and then a full six and a half percent and amazingly if you just take the most conservative just one percent allocation this would get bitcoin back above its all-time highs and very close to a hundred thousand meaning the market would do a 4x and this alone would put everybody back in profit so for me this is a very realistic and optimistic target then at a two and a half percent allocation this means bitcoin would 9x from today's price meaning the crypto market would probably be doing multiples of that and then the full six and a half percent would be over a 20 x and this is just institutions this isn't including anything else so the 200 week moving average currently sits at about 23 000 and this is a pivotal price point and for me it's really 50 50 as to which way it breaks this week we had the epic news that blackrock will be giving its institutional clients access to crypto to the tune of 20 trillion dollars starting with bitcoin and if all institutions were to allocate just one percent to bitcoin then this would be enough to four times the market take it back to all-time highs and put everybody back in profit and that's not including anything else going on and for this reason this is why i remain so bullish on the crypto market so there you are guys hope you enjoyed now any questions or comments just post them below but for now just to say if you did enjoy anything in the video then drop a like and a big thank you to everyone who does and i'll see you in the next video bye for now you