저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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관세 부과에도 시장이 차분한 이유는 미국 경제의 회복력에 대한 신뢰 때문이며, 2분기 실적은 낮아진 기대치 덕에 상회 가능성이 높다고 봄. 다만 CPI 근원물가가 약 3%에 머물러 연준의 금리 인하 여지는 제한적이며 금리는 현 수준이 적정하다는 견해. 관세는 결국 미국 소비자·기업이 부담하는 세금이며, 엔비디아의 대중 칩 판매 재개는 협상 가능성을 보여준다고 평가. 연준 독립성 훼손 시도에는 부정적이고 달러는 바닥을 형성했다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Yardi is with us. He's president at Yardi Research. Ed, good morning. Great to have you back on the show and on the program as well. Uh you know, this Indonesian deal uh 19% the latest at 32%. How should we How should others who are kind of sort of, you know, waiting to negotiate read this? Uh you know, as I I was saying and earlier, I don't know if you if it's the right way to look at it that maybe yeah, there is room for negotiation, but eventual tariff rates are looking like they're going to be closer to 20%, so very high, still very high.
Yeah, still very high and I think the president has a number of objectives when it comes to tariffs. Uh one of them is to raise revenues and he's uh clearly very pleased with what he's seen so far uh because at an annual rate um over the past 3 months, we've seen customs duties uh up at an annual rate of $300 uh plus plus a you know, a little bit higher than that actually.
Uh so, he I guess he's figuring if he can get that with 10% then with 20% he could get $600 and if the rest of the world is okay with it, then that's what it'll be. Uh but at the end of the day, it's not Indonesia that's going to pay that. It's going to be American consumers. It's going to be American companies.
Some Indonesian companies may uh give a break to their American customers and uh uh eat some of that uh tariff, but for the most part, it's a it's a tax on Americans. Mhm. Uh and the new tariff rates are much higher than the base case that most investors and economists were expecting, but despite all that and markets have been very well-behaved.
It's been a very muted reaction in the financial markets. Uh so, what do you make of that and what are your clients saying, thinking, acting now? Well, I think uh my clients are kind of reflecting what's going on in the market. They're a little bit the relaxed than they were back in April about what's going on with tariffs and its impact on the market.
I think one of the reasons the market uh is doing so well is because people have come around to kind of a view I've had for really the past 3 years and that is don't uh bet against don't underestimate the resilience uh the strength of the US economy. It put up with a dramatic uh increase in uh the federal funds rate dramatic uh monetary tightening and yet we did not have a recession and here is so far knock on wood uh so far so good.
We've had a situation where um the uh uh tariff turmoil we've had so far doesn't look like it's really uh causing a recession. So I I think there's just more confidence that the economy is resilient. Not only that but earnings were very good in the first quarter and now there's expectations that the second quarter could also see earnings beat expectations because they've been knocked down so low it's not going to be that hard to beat them.
Mhm. Hi Ed, good morning. Good to see you. Well, you know, just looking at a couple of estimates and earning season in the United States is expected to deliver 4.3% growth which will actually be the lowest growth we've seen in multiple quarters. And yesterday the earnings that we got in from some of those banking names, Wells Fargo, you know, JP Morgan, BlackRock, some of them were digested as a bit of a miss.
So how do you see you know earnings pick up from here on? Do you believe that the you know that earnings will actually be better than what sheet was working with uh point number one and point number two just wanted your comment on the inflation print that we got in yesterday. I think you're in the camp that believes no more rate cuts, right?
Uh of coming from the Fed in this year. So just want to comment on that as well. Well, sure, absolutely. So uh the bank uh earnings looked looked just fine to me. I think the reason the bank stocks uh didn't uh rally on them is because they already rallied. I think there was a lot of expectations that the banks would do just fine.
The bank stocks have already discounted a lot of the good news and the number I'm looking at is like 3 and 1/2% maybe you're right. Maybe there's another number out there 4 and 1/2% for year over year as the current consensus of earning analysts, but they always tend to be too pessimistic almost always tend to be too pessimistic and I I think it's going to be double that.
I think it's going to be 7% on a year over year basis. So I think we're going to beat that and that's exactly what we did in the in the first quarter. Now with regards to the the Fed the CPI today came in warm not hot. Came a little bit stronger than anticipated, but we're looking at CPI inflation rate on a core basis excluding food and energy of close to 3%.
I think what the Trump tariffs have done is they've kind of stalled out. They've uh forced the decline in the CPI inflation rate which was heading down to 2%. Looks like it's stuck now around 3% which is not what the Fed wants to see. The Fed wants to see that inflation's going to continue to moderate to 2%.
If it's stuck now at 3% all the more reason why the Fed will not be in any rush to satisfy Donald Trump. I mean there's no way they're going to give him more 1% Fed funds rate when it's 4.3% now and there might be no way that even if he gets rid of Powell that remaining consensus on the FOMC the Federal Open Market Committee will in fact again lower rates.
So I I think rates are where they should be. Um yeah absolutely and two very quick points if you can respond. One of course is I think there was some comments from the Treasury secretary last evening out last evening where he said that well I I he kind of sort of pushed back on the idea of this shadow Fed.
He said it'll create confusion. So, uh so that is one if you if you want to sort of weigh in. Second, of course, is Nvidia being allowed to sell these high-end chips to China once again. And Nvidia was the reason Nasdaq was higher last night. So, does that show a bit of thaw in that relationship or not really?
Well, I I I think what it shows is that everything is negotiable and everything can be renegotiated a few times. So, uh uh this the the head of Nvidia went to see the president and and convinced them that the chips that uh Nvidia wants to sell China are not uh state-of-the-art and in any at any way uh at any rate that the Chinese are going to develop their own chips if uh we don't sell them our chips.
So, the the president uh uh understood the logic of that and agreed to it. So, yeah, I think it shows uh some indication that uh we're willing to be flexible on some of the issues with with China. But, to a large extent, it was the president uh responding to an American company saying, "Hey, look, uh we the the we're going to be number one no matter what and we might as well sell to China." Uh what was your other question?
The Fed, the shadow Fed. I think he uh yeah, I mean It's a crazy It's a crazy idea. It's It would be extremely messy. Uh I I I'm not quite sure what Trump's goal is here. I mean, he says his goal is to get rid of Powell, but I I'm wondering if his real goal is to pound the dollar cuz every time every day that he beats up on uh uh on Powell, the dollar goes down.
Now, I I happen to think the dollar's bottomed here and that the markets are starting to get a little bit bored with these attacks on on Powell. And the markets realize that it's a committee at at the Federal Open Market Committee. And so, even if uh Powell is replaced, that doesn't necessarily mean that the Fed is going to give the president uh what he wants.
But I also heard that there's some rumors about the possibility that Treasury Secretary Bessant might also be appointed the head of the the chair of the Fed, which would be kind of a strange situation cuz that would certainly muck up the the credibility of the Fed as being independent. But I mean my advice to the president is uh you've you've accomplished a lot.
Go on the campaign trail for the midterm elections and leave the Fed alone. You don't need lower interest rates. The economy is doing just fine. Yeah, save save low interest rates for when you really need them. And do something about the deficit that's really you know, reduces outlays and increases receipts.
You know, on that subject about Scott Bessant being the Fed chair, I think Bloomberg ran a story after that saying that US president stated that Treasury Secretary Bessant is an option for the post, but not necessarily the top option because he likes the job that he's currently Bessant is currently doing as the Treasury at the moment.
Okay. All right. Well, we'll thank you Ed for joining in and giving us uh your view on the markets, economy, as well as on earnings. And guys, by the way, it wasn't the big beautiful bill. He spoke about coal yesterday. He said it it should be called not coal, but clean beautiful coal. So, he changed it around from the big beautiful to now clean beautiful for coal itself.
Quite interesting thing coal, clean and beautiful. Well, I think you can you can rebrand anything, right? You say it often enough. Well, let me just quickly
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