저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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관세·예산안 불확실성이 완화되며 미국 증시가 2월 고점 수준까지 V자 회복, 밸류에이션(약 22배)이 높아 밀어올림(멜트업) 가능성도 언급. 연말 S&P500 기본 시나리오 6,500, 멜트업 시 7,000 이상. 경기는 하반기 개선 전망이나 약하면 연준 완화 기대로 상승 가능. 달러는 약세 베팅에 반대(저점 근접 가능성), 금은 연말 4,000달러 전망 유지. 저유가 수혜로 신흥국(특히 인도) 긍정적, 중국은 규제 강화로 투자 불가 판단.
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All right, with that, let's uh go across to Ed Yadini who joins in. He's the president of Yadini Research. Uh Ed, you know, it's been a big rally that we've seen from the lows in the US markets. The streets now looking to live with this uncertainty that was there and that uncertainty itself is uh you know, slowly coming down.
What will be the two most important things that you'll be watching out for when it comes to trade negotiations and at the same time the big spending bill which has been lined up? Well, I think with regards to trade, it's pretty clear that the administration would like to get this issue behind them. Uh they uh are negotiating and there will probably be some deals announced, some major deals maybe even with India in the p in the next several days and uh that will be a positive for stock markets in the US and India and and around the world.
Um, I think that uh there will still be issues perhaps with Canada, but uh what we're watching is negotiating. We're watching deal making. Uh deals will be done. And again, I think the administration recognizes that they'd like to get trade behind them and they'd also like to get the the budget behind them.
And I think they'll certainly do that the way things have just gone in in this in the Senate. Um I I think the important thing to realize about the the budget bill is that uh what it really does is it extends uh the tax cut that was already in place with without it we would have had a rather large tax increase that it could really have hurt the economy.
I I don't really view this bill as being particularly stimulative. It's just not going to be a uh situation where we're suddenly slamming on the brakes. Uh so I think that the two big issues that the administration started out with are going to become uh less uh less pressing, less uh less immediate impact on the markets.
And I think the markets are going to especially in the United States going to turn to second quarter earnings. That season that second quarter earnings season will start in in April. Sorry, let's uh do that in July. Uh I'm looking backwards instead of ahead. So in July we will get the uh second quarter earnings outlook and that should be interesting.
I think u on balance it'll be a positive one because earnings estimates have been cut back so much. So Ed on the whole uh do you think the US equity markets can move higher from here on? So far, despite all the noise in the background related to tariffs, whether it's the big bold beautiful bill, uh geopolitical, uh geopolitics, US markets are at record highs.
They've scaled back to those levels in record time just shows the remarkable resilience. So, keeping that in mind, do you say more legs to go run? Yeah, look, uh everything you said makes a great deal of sense. Uh we we have the market basically back to where it was on February 19th. The valuation multiple is around 22, which is where it was back uh in February 19th.
We've got uh earnings estimates uh relatively strong. And so it's as though uh you know nothing really happened between February 19th and now. Of course, a lot has happened, but it's been a V-shaped kind of correction. It's been in many ways a a normal correction certainly uh with a 18.9% drop in about 48 days.
What's been remarkable as you said is how quickly the uh the other side of the V how quickly we've we've recovered from that uh correction. Uh but I'm I actually just wrote a piece saying that we could be looking at a meltup scenario again. I I and others were saying valuation multiples are kind of high back in February and here they are kind of high again.
Uh so I think the market's going higher on earnings but I can't dismiss the possibility that we'll see some irrational exuberance and see that the valuation multiple goes even higher. Hi Ed, always good to see you. So where do we go then on the S&P 500? I think we were talking about 6,500 or thereabouts.
If you're going to be going for a meltup, how how much higher can it go? Yeah. Well, my my my most likely scenario, my base base case is still 6,500 by the end of the year. Uh even that is uh awfully optimistic because the assumption is that the market will be discounting $300 uh a share in earnings next year with a multiple of about 22.
Uh so all that is is optimistic. A meltup would be an a situation where we see the markets uh maybe still sticking with that kind of optimistic outlook for earnings but getting up to 23 24 25 multiples in which case we'll be looking at 7,000 by by the end of the year or maybe even more than that. Okay, a quick word on the US economy though.
We had the PCE data that came out on Friday that appeared to be pretty much in line. However, the core PCE number that was a little bit higher, looked a little bit hotter than what was expected. Well, there are signs that you know that there is some kind of slowing down if you look at the spending as well.
Sure. How do you read the state of the US economy? Well, it's kind of like tossing up a coin and heads you win, tails you win. um in in the following sense that if the US economy is in a uh soft uh in sort of a soft patch, something that's not going to last very long and the economy starts to look better in the second half, which is what I think.
I think the market obviously has been held down the the the economy and the stock markets have been held down by concerns and uncertainties related to to tariffs. We also had that whole deep seek uh phenomenon that kind of rattled the market. Those those are issues are behind us now and I think the market and the economy can do better in the second half of the year and so that would take the market up on earnings.
Now if I'm wrong and the economy is actually getting fundamentally weak here because the consumer is retrenching well then the Fed put is still out there. The Feds has been saying that they are no rush to lower rates. They've been stressing that they they are fundamentally dovish. They are planning to lower interest rates.
They're just not sure when. So if we get a weaker economy, they'll lower interest rates and the stock market will go up on that still further. That's a wonderful analogy there. Heads, you win, tails, you win as well. On the way up, you have the earnings that will take the market higher. If not, it'll be the Fed that will take the market higher.
In any case, the market is likely to move higher is what you're calling the US markets. Let's shift focus to the emerging markets as well as your call if you have any on gold and the dollar itself. Uh you know we've seen weakness in the dollar as well as gold. Gold prices are about at their one month lows.
Do you think the best of both of them is behind them? That's one. And secondly, if the US markets are doing well, what happens to emerging markets? Yeah, let's let's let me cover those issues. Very important points. emerging markets I think are getting a big benefit from lower oil prices. Certainly India is getting a tremendous benefit from lower uh oil prices.
So uh the the the bad news for the energy producers is great news for most emerging markets other than the ones that export oil. So I think that's uh that's a big driver there. I think also the perception is that if this tariff issue gets settled uh sooner rather than later that that's also a positive I think for the global economy and for emerging markets.
Uh and they have have been doing well. With regards to the dollar I just I'm not bearish on the dollar. Everybody seems to be bearish. Maybe I'm being too much of a contrarian here. Uh but the US capital markets are the largest in the world. I don't think that the euro or the yen are uh candidates for becoming reserve currencies anytime soon.
And I will not be surprised if we're pretty close to seeing a low in the dollar here. It's been a really in a volatile trading range for a couple of years. So, we're at the bottom of that range. If it breaks through down below that, I'll have to rethink my what what I'm missing. But right now, I I can't I'm not that bearish on the on the dollar.
With regards to gold, I've been very bullish on the dollar, think on gold, thinking we could get to 4,000 by the end of the year. And we're I think that's still possible. Right now, gold has uh seen some profit taking on the fact that geopolitical risks have come down a lot as a result of the ceasefire in the Middle East.
But meanwhile, central banks of countries that don't get along very well with the United States are still committed to buying more and more gold in their reserves. And I think that keeps gold going higher. So, I'm going to stick with 4,000 by the end of the year. Uh, so if you get that right, you're positive the dollar, you're positive on gold.
You believe that the gold prices can go to $4,000. And you're positive emerging markets as well. Correct. And you're negative oil. Correct. Got it. And in emerging markets, you want to quickly tell us your view on India and if it's changed at all in the last few months? Well, I I think that uh India is uh sort of in competition with China when it comes to uh global investors uh looking for opportunities around the world.
I think China's uh still got some serious problems here. U we may see a resolution of just about all of Trump's trade issues, but the the relationship with China and the United States is going to remain tense and it's probably going to be reflected in ongoing issues with regards to to trade. I think uh the relationship with India on a trade basis will probably be resolved very quickly and we might get a deal here in the next week or so, maybe two weeks.
I I I don't have any inside information on that, but the administration seems to be indicating that they're expecting some pretty big deals and I think it would be a very big deal if we got a good trade deal between the United States and India. Uh so I think India still looks pretty good. Um you know the the market's benefiting from lower oil prices.
China does as well but India's got a much better demographic profile. uh the the the English language is widely uh spoken whereas in China not not so much but uh India is more of a capitalistic uh economy than is China. So I I think India continues to perform very well. All right. So India over China, right?
Because the argument is that at these valuations maybe in fact China could be the near-term story. What is your take on that? India's a short story. Yeah, I have I've been fundamentally opposed to investing in China uh primarily because it's not a free market system. I think they were moving in that direction and I think they embraced capitalism for a few decades and that's why they made so much progress with their economy.
But in the past few years they've really clamped down on free market capitalism. They've been much tougher in regulating business. This doesn't mean that they can't uh continue to grow and and succeed with technology in areas like that, but it's not an investable area for uh for global investors in the sense that the rules can really change uh just overnight. Ed, it's been a great conversation. Thank you very much for joining
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