저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
연준이 금리 인하를 피할 수 없으며 9월 25bp 인하가 유력하다고 주장. 금리 인하 시 MMF 자금이 위험자산으로 이동하고 유동성이 늘어나 주식·암호화폐가 급등할 수 있다는 논리. S&P500 7000 도달 가능성을 언급하며 XRP를 포함한 자산 상승을 기대. 1분기 GDP 마이너스 등 데이터 근거를 제시. 차기 연준의장 후보(베선트, 월러, 워시)에 대한 언급 포함.
다듬은 글
But give us the other side, Shamaz, if you have it. I believe Jeron Powell is in an increasingly untenable situation because he will be seen as someone who politicizes the position of Federal Reserve Chairman. There is sufficient data to justify the rate reduction. If rates are reduced, and we've talked about this before, two things will happen.
First, people will withdraw some money from money market funds because they will want to seek higher returns elsewhere. This will increase the velocity of money at the same time. And so, if we are at an all-time high, today with rates at 4 and 5% and Powell is up against the wall to cut it, the only way from here is probably up.
Right now we are at an incredibly pivotal point in the stock market, the cryptocurrency market, the real estate market, you name it. Rate cuts are closer than ever in the United States of America. The only developed nation that has not been reducing rates is America. And there's so much pressure right now on Jeron Powell to take action, and he's been dragging his feet time and time again .
People are starting to get very fed up, especially certain politicians like Donald Trump, who has been extremely harsh on Jerome Powell about this. But here's the thing, right? No matter how much he drags his feet, Jeron Powell will be forced to cut rates very soon. It will be toward the end of this year or very early in 2026.
I think we'll see a huge number of rate cuts, and whether it happens in the next three months or in four or five months, it doesn't really matter because the potential price action we'll see after this, when the world's largest economy starts printing potentially hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars, will be monumental.
The markets will go absolutely crazy. And yes, that includes XRP in case it happens and repeats past historical examples. So I'm preparing for this. I think everyone should be preparing for this. And Shamar does a great job explaining how he believes this will play out very soon, talking about reaching the highest all-time highs in history, which I think is supported by a lot of data.
which are also shared in today's video. So hit that like button so everyone in the XRP army can see this video. Let's get into what Shamaz has to say here. If I were a gambler, which I am, I believe that trading for free money here is something you can make a lot of money right now. Because? the speed of money.
So what is this? This is the M2 money supply. It is a measure of how much money is circulating in the economy. What this shows is the impact of interest rates, where we were able to start slowing down and contracting the money supply. But then, how did you see it? As the economy stabilized and people began to project what was possible in 18 to 24 months, you started to see money returning to the system.
That's great because a percentage of this capital is allocated to things that can generate a higher return than the money markets. So I'd say, "Okay, where does it go from here? Look at how much money is in money market funds. This starts to show you that you have trillions and trillions of dollars of dry powder sitting on the sidelines that will need to find a home.
And then you might see this revalue quite aggressively. And then the question is, do you do that where you manage your risk and your short positions in some things, or do you just say, 'You know what?'" I'm going to take everything and remove most of my short positions and let things run their course.
I think if Powell starts an aggressive rate-cutting program, whether he has to or he's trying to keep his job, man, you could see the S&P hit 7000 pretty fast. And so if we're at an all-time high today with rates at 4 and 5% and Powell is up against the wall to cut, the only way from here is probably up.
A flood of economic data has just been released . The GDP impression for the first quarter was -0.5%. I mean , how could anyone at the Fed or in the media covering this not understand that, by the way, when we were talking about this, just as I said that we were probably going to print a three in GDP in the second quarter, we also talked about the fact that we were probably going to have a negative print of GDP in the first quarter?
So we've known it for months, we've basically been predicting it correctly. So why is there an inability to simply look at the data and state the obvious and true? I think that no matter what you think of Trump, it does n't really matter. Rates shouldn't be where they are today. They should be between 50 and 100 points.
lower base . He is categorical, he will do it in September. He's going to make a cut of 25 in September. There is no logical explanation for it. There is a subjective explanation, and that is political. I think after the tariffs, he said, "let's leave it for a month or two, get more data, and then we'll reduce it in September." What is the difference between a cut in July, August, or September?
It probably won't be significant in the overall story arc, but if you're against tariffs and you're buying into Jim Krammer's doomsday narrative or Larry Summers' doomsday narrative, that's more of a reason to cut. There is a polymarket about who will replace Powell. Nick, is there anything there about who will replace Powell?
He'll announce it, I mean, I think he'll just announce it and it'll be Beson. People seem to like Beson; he seems like a firm hand, he seems to have experience. Obviously it will be Beson. Who is the most likely new Fed chairman or something like that? I think it's Bes. Here it is. Oh, there's Chris Waller.
Beson only has 14%. I think that's your opportunity. Listen, there are 1 2 3 4 5 6 people with 14 to 22%. So this is Beson is at 14%. Yes, I agree. That seems low. Assets up 18%. I have worked with both of them. That's a and it has that. And I know them both well, and they would both be great. Both have a lot of experience.
A lot of time spent in the game. What do you want? Warsh has been in the game for a long time. He really knows how markets work. I mean, it's your mouth. Is this the case with Ox? Is this a case of choosing? You have a bench. Do you want to remove Besón from where he is doing a good job? I think Besón is having a field day with the treasure.
I would love to keep him at the job, so I think that's the decision. I think elevating Waller has that is an interesting set of implications. Warsh knows, very accomplished and capable of doing the job. The question is, does Trump think he 's a magician, or does Trump think he's more of an established Republican?
Sorry, there's another name on the list that we forgot. Musk or Trump. Oh, Chama is there. Oh, okay. Let's see. Okay, let 's raise those numbers. Those are rookie numbers. You can win 99.8. I believe I am part of a cascade that occurs if something else happens.
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