저자: DanIves/출연자소속제목·설명란미기재로자막내호명기준 · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아 92% 급락(시총 약 2,780억 달러 증발)은 성장 우려 중심의 반도체 업종 전반 충격으로 해석. 법무부(DOJ) 반독점 조사는 과도한 공포로 보고 AI 수요·Blackwell 출시 지연 해소를 근거로 매수 기회 제시. 아이폰16 판매 전망 상향(9,000만대 이상)과 빅테크 성장 지속 강조. 출연자들은 장기 낙관을 유지하며 변동성을 기회로 봄.
다듬은 글
host it was lighter on its feet this morning after dropping 92% yesterday that is a wipe out of 278 billion doll why was this only an August Redux or what was the trigger asterisk asterisk resident asterisk asterisk indeed it seems to me that the concerns are mainly about growth not only for NVIDIA but also for the semiconductor industry as a whole it was a catastrophe for the whole semi- food chain yesterday but has there been a fun fundamental change no for this reason we will be traveling to Asia in the next weeks Supply still can't keep up with demand although the response to earnings was subdued the demand for AI is still growing when you step back the Blackwell delays are over these sell-offs in my opinion offer opportunities for purchases rather than causes for fear asterisk asterisk host asterisk asterisk Dan if the antitrust probe from the doj escalates with this supo does that concern you at all for NVIDIA asterisk asterisk resident asterisk asterisk look you need to consider it in the perspective of technology in general with another Google trial scheduled for next week Apple and Google are also facing regulatory scrutiny it's just the mood in Washington right now we don't worry too much about Nvidia their outstanding performance which puts them well ahead of AMD and others is the reason they have dominated the doj probe seems seems to me more like a terrifying headline than a serious issue like other large tech companies Nvidia is only responding to regulatory pressure their primary Competitive Edge remains unaffected asterisk asterisk host asterisk asterisk one of the charges is that suppliers find it more difficult to switch which hurts buyers what could possibly go wrong in this situation a break in the vast Mo surrounding Nvidia or a chip Fisher asterisk asterisk guest asterisk asterisk Nvidia has created a moe that is here to stay having the doj investigate this could in fact result in an all clear which is a good thing for years businesses like apple Google and Amazon have demonstrated this with a substantial portion of the anticipated trillion doll ey capital expenditure over the coming years Nvidia will continue to lead Innovation asterisk asterisk host asterisk asterisk could huge tech companies like Nvidia be subject to further antitrust monitoring in this political environment where both presidential candidates are vying for the most populous policies is there a chance that this time will be different asterisk asterisk resident asterisk asterisk there is no doubt that the climate is changed the regulatory landscape may change in the wake of Google's recent victory in actuality however the strong just gets stronger you brought up significant Tech like mags and that tendency isn't going to go away the I revolution will if anything hasten their domination another example is Apple's upcoming iPhone 16 launch next week the largest factor will be M and A yet big Tech will still prosper in spite of regulatory obstacles asterisk asterisk host asterisk asterisk seeing the supply chain is one of the things you're doing while in Asia what do you hear regarding demand particularly in light of the impending iPhone launch are businesses discussing the possibility of new tariffs on Asia asterisk asterisk guest asterisk asterisk yes of course I've traveled to Asia twice in the past month to assess demand from an iPhone standpoint the first estimate for the iPhone 16 was between 80 and 84 million units however it is currently anticipated that over 90 million will be sold which is optimistic the iPhone 16's owered super cycle is still underappreciated that is concerning in the context of of the US China Tech conflict particularly as the elections in November get near what does each candidate mean for the I trade investors are asking the largest uncertainty is that asterisk asterisk host asterisk asterisk are companies taking any actions to protect themselves ahead of potential election results or are they waiting asterisk asterisk resident asterisk asterisk they're mainly waiting right now due to their strong ties to Taiwan and China their options are limited it will take time for it to change but nothing fundamental has changed this recent sell-off simply reflects broader anxieties even though there is some hesitancy leading up to the fall elections we still think that these tech companies valuations will increase until 2025 asterisk asterisk host asterisk asterisk as an advocate for Invidia Dan we recognize your long-term optimism but should I now consider my investment in Vidia to be divided into two parts one for trading around these 5 to 10% fluctuations and one for the longterm asterisk asterisk resident asterisk asterisk certainly in technology you must wear a seat belt the journey will not be easy Pilots will alert you to the presence of turbulence however as demonstrated by yesterday's events and Black Monday in Tokyo that opens up opportunities although volatility exists these are growth scares rather than structural shifts instead of seeing it as the beginning of a downturn I see it as an opportunity asterisk asterisk host asterisk asterisk Nvidia refuted yesterday's rumors of a doj sapuna Nvidia wins on Merit as reflected in our benchmarks and value to customers they informed Jim Kramer clients are free to select the option that best suits their needs Nvidia stated that they have contacted the doj and have not received a sapuna but they would be pleased to to respond to any inquiries what do you think of the Stock's lack of reaction asterisk asterisk resident asterisk asterisk to be honest I believe that people were anticipating something more spectacular the sell-off had already taken place therefore there was little movement in the stock the market was influenced by larger concerns impacting the whole semiconductor industry not by The subpoena announcement when all the rivals were also impacted Nvidia wasn't the only one asterisk asterisk host asterisk asterisk you purchased additional Nvidia and Dell products yesterday however I would want to discuss Nvidia why did you add after the massive drop asterisk asterisk resident asterisk asterisk yes in order to raise some money I have been cutting back onvia lately but my average level is still between 106 and 105 in addition to having a lot of support we're underweight Nvidia which is on uncommon for me I restored nvidia's weight to roughly 5.5% which is comparable to the S and p500 waiting in essence nothing has changed the report was excellent and by the end of the year I believe he'll be back above 130 asterisk asterisk host asterisk asterisk the report was great but was it great enough given the stocks massive runup asterisk asterisk resident asterisk asterisk this quarter's results don't matter if you're optimistic about Nvidia it involves imagining a time when their $20 billion in Revenue would increase to $200 billion and their profitability will reach $5 per share that is far too cheap for that future reality at $16 per share you are invested in Vidia due of their long-term Trend not for a single quarter and Blackwells Fay asks the host asterisk asterisk guest asterisk asterisk able deliver this fiscal year but there will be a slight delay since everyone is using it to develop their eye architecture we're just making sure there are no bugs or functional problems they have increased the chip yields for profitability and demand is still high asterisk asterisk host asterisk asterisk prior to nidia's findings last week a Trader suggested a protective options bet what can you tell us about the outcome of that exchange Tony Zang asterisk as IST Tony asterisk asterisk we paid about $3.75 for a September 12310 put spread it was trading at $99.75 this morning representing a 160% return now given the job data that will be released tomorrow I would advise rolling that down to a 10490 seconds put spread in order to control risk and capture any potential downside ask asterisk asterisk coost asterisk asterisk how much is this new trade going to cost asterisk asterisk Tony asterisk asterisk we lose $3 in profit on this new spread but we still have protection against the downside with a 3:1 reward ratio if Nvidia drops below $92 by the time it expires in 15 days you can profit $9 for every $3 you risk the host says thanks Tony this version eliminates difficult language and grammatical problems while maintaining the entire discussion if you would like any other changes please let me know in vif has already experienced a 20% decline from its peak it's down more than 30% I believe yes it cost more than $130 the stock fell 50% in 2022 therefore you must own these equities as a component of a diversified portfolio rather than as your sole asset because much of its value is already priced in it's acceptable to hold it but be ready for the potential that the market as a whole may be rising while Nvidia is sharply declining
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