저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 미국 부채한도 합의는 통과될 가능성이 높고, 연준은 추가 금리인상 없이 pause(동결)할 가능성이 크다는 견해. [부채한도·미국 증시] - 의회의 부채한도 합의 통과를 낙관하며, 디폴트 위기는 일어나지 않을 것으로 봄 - 좋은 소식은 이미 시장에 선반영되어 있어 큰 상승 모멘텀은 제한적일 수 있음 - 최근 몇 주간 미국 증시는 꽤 견조하게 상승해 옴 [인도 시장] - 올해 인도 증시는 크게 올라 사상 최고치에서 약 2% 수준까지 근접 - 2024년 총선을 앞두고 인프라·자본재 등은 6개월 전부터 선반영되는 경향이 있다는 점 언급 - 인도는 중국 리스크와 미·중, 러시아-서방 지정학 갈등 속에서 공급망 분산 수혜국으로 유리하다고 평가 - 해외 직접투자(실물 투자) 유입 가능성도 긍정적으로 봄 [중국·원자재] - 중국 경제는 록다운 이후 기대만큼 회복되지 않음 - 중국 민감 원자재인 구리 가격이 약세를 보이고 중국 부동산 시장도 어려움 [연준 금리] - 시장은 향후 두 번의 회의 내 25bp 인상을 반영 중이나, 본인은 연준이 이미 인상을 끝냈다고 봄 - 인플레이션은 완만히 둔화 중, 미국 경제는 저성장이지만 성장 중 - 핵심 리스크는 은행 위기이며, 고금리가 신용 경색·경기침체로 이어지는 것을 연준이 원치 않을 것 - 현재 연방기금금리 약 5~5.25% 수준이 한동안 유지될 가능성 언급 - 연준 목표(2% 인플레)는 2025년 무렵 달성 목표로 보며, 현재 정책 경로는 적절하다고 평가 - 기술혁신이 미국 경제의 중요한 자극 요인이 될 수 있고, 경기침체 우려는 후퇴했다는 인식이 증시 랠리 배경 [리스크] - 은행 위기 재확산 가능성, 연준의 인내심 상실(추가 인상) 가능성이 주요 변수 [출연자 전망] - 연준 동결 지속, 금리 인상 종료 판단 - 인도 시장은 구조적으로 유리하나 선반영 우려 존재
다듬은 글
eduardinis president of yadny research is joining us now to take some questions and good to have you with us here should this pass uh the con first of all do you think I mean there'll be any problem in uh getting this through uh the U.S Congress won and if it were to be the case will it spark a risk on Rally or it'll all be pricing by the time we get get to it all great questions uh look I think that uh a deal is going to get passed by Congress I I never anticipated that we'd have a problem I thought it would be a last minute kind of situation which is what it was uh I think the stock market really hasn't been all that worried about it quite honestly I mean look the Market's been actually going up pretty nicely in the past few weeks and that withstanding concerns that there could be a terrible uh default crisis which is not going to happen and I never thought would happen uh so I I don't know that there's going to be there could be like for you know a morning kind of trade situation uh move to the upside but I think a lot of the good news uh was already anticipated by the markets the markets we've seen this play before and uh it's turning out to to work out the way it has in the past and hi good morning given everything the Indian markets have really uh you know rallied quite a bit in fact this year now we're hardly two percent away from all-time highs yet again uh there we also have some big cues coming up of course there's the uh the rape cycle but apart from that we are heading into an election year in 2024 and generally when that happens markets sort of uh you know see a lot of the gains being priced in six months in advance whether it's an infrastructure capital goods Etc how are you feeling about India now and what is your prognosis well when I look around the world um India still looks uh as though it has a lot going for it uh the Chinese economy is um isn't doing as well as people had been anticipating coming out of the lockdown uh lockdowns that they had imposed on their people there was an anticipation that there would be a lot of pent-up demand and yet what we're seeing is the price of copper which is very sensitive to developments in China remains weak I think the property Market remains in trouble over there meanwhile the Cold War Hot War situation between the west and China between the west and um uh and Russia uh these cold Wars uh have been pretty hot they've been extremely hot of course in in the Ukraine which is a proxy war really between the west and Russia uh and so from that perspective there's a lot of pressure to uh put Supply chains in areas of the world that are viewed as relatively stable and secure and India certainly stands out in that regard so the geopolitical situation is favoring India with the rights to foreign investors and I just don't I don't mean just foreign investors into the stock market I mean direct Investments people actually companies actually investing in India foreign is uh everyone was looking forward to uh this debt ceiling deal uh being reached and as you said maybe majority of the good news is in the price but the problem I think for Equity markets is from non not anticipating any rate hike or considering it as distinct possibility now there's a high probability that we get another rate high coming from the FED what's your sense we get the trade hike and then they pass I think you're right I mean you know now that the debt ceiling issue is very likely to be behind us assuming that Congress passes it this week uh we'll move on to other things to worry about and the FED will be back in Focus uh the markets I think uh are discounting a 25 basis point increase in the FED funds rate uh sometime over the next two meetings I think the FED will pass on raising the FED funds rate at the next meeting they could very well do it at the following meeting but I it's my view that the FED is done um I think inflation is continuing to moderate I think that the U.S economy is growing but at a slow pace the big issue is the banking crisis uh we've been very lucky that the banking crisis hasn't become an economy-wide credit crunch in a recession and I don't think the FED wants to really push the limits of what the financial markets can withstand in terms of high interest rates I mean we are restrictive territory with regards to the FED funds rate as evidenced by the banking crisis so I I haven't given up on the notion that the fed's going to pause for a while for a long while perhaps and uh that we may not get further rate increases this year okay um and you've kind of held that view for a while that uh you know they're looking at backward uh sort of data and uh for all practical purposes they should be done whether they're actually done or not we'll see but a pause is uh coming but in any case we will it's also your view that we will hold on to these uh you know five five and a quarter five and a half kind of levels of the FED funds for some time Ed yeah I think the FED in the past uh interest rates went up and then they came down pretty quickly this time around I think the FED is trying to find a level that's restrictive enough without uh causing a recession to bring inflation down and I think they're they're at that point right now I hope they don't get impatient they've said that they want to get to their two percent inflation Target not by this year not by next year but by 2025 and I think they're exactly on the right course for that and I think the stock market uh has rallied on the perception that we're not going to have a recession after all and that technological innovations that could be a very important stimulus to the US economy okay all right Ed we leave it at that thanks a lot for stopping by and speaking to us at CNBC TV 18 of course for our own markets the Bulls have come back in a big way we are at the cusp of new highs it looks like today could be that day whether we hold on to that of course time will tell but for now um the optimism is real and the momentum has been intact so
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