저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경기는 침체가 아니며 증시는 연말 S&P500 4600을 향해 완만히 상승할 것이라는 낙관론. 경제 상황: 4월 고용지표가 강하고 코인시던트 경제지표도 사상 최고 수준 가능성. 고령층 은퇴 및 외식·여행·의료 수요가 노동수요를 떠받치며, 금리를 500bp 인상했음에도 노동수요가 강하다고 평가. 증시 전망: 단기적으로 약 2% 추가 상승 가능하나 4000 부근 박스권은 아직 벗어나지 않음. S&P500은 올여름 늦여름~초가을 무렵 4600 방향으로 이동할 것으로 전망. 은행 위기와 금리: 지역은행 위기가 연준의 추가 금리 인상 여력을 제한할 수 있어 100bp 이상 추가 인상은 필요 없을 수 있음. 다만 강한 경기로 인플레이션이 더 오래 지속될 수 있음. 연준의 긴축 수준이 달러를 비교적 견조하게 유지할 것으로 봄. 미국 증시 구조: 상승이 대형 기술주 8~10개 중심으로 좁게 이뤄진 점이 우려이나, 건설·트럭 운송 등 고용은 사상 최고 수준이라 시장 지지 요인으로 봄. 미국 경제가 양호해 달러에 긍정적이며 해외 증시에는 다소 부담. 신흥국: 지정학적 긴장 고조로 중국에 투자하던 자금과 공급망이 인도 등으로 이동 중이라 일부 신흥국은 수혜 예상. 인도는 실적 개선과 밸류에이션 하락(선행 PER 약 23배→18배)이 긍정적이며, 중국과 미국 영향권 사이에서 성장 혜택을 받는 위치로 평가. 출연자 전망: 인도 증시 상승 추세 재개 가능성을 암시하나 지정학 변수를 함께 고려해야 한다는 입장.
다듬은 글
ediardini is with us he's president at yadi I mean what do you make of the April jobs report number out of the U.S uh this is uh are you surprised does it does it change things we get the core CPI number later this week out of the U.S uh but uh and of course it's interesting to see the market reaction right markets clearly worried about a big slowdown uh rather than maybe rates going up a little bit more or staying here well I think it the the numbers definitely confirmed that the economy is still growing it's not in a recession there have been some uh of the Bears saying that we're going to have an imminent recession but uh you know the employment data is one of the four components of the index of coincident economic indicators and it's probably the most important because it tends to influence the other ones and the the index of coincident economic indicators in April is likely to be at an all-time record high so how can we really talk about an imminent recession when the economy is doing so well I'm really not that surprised by the strength of the labor market I've come around to to think that demographics is having a very powerful impact on our demand for labor a lot of Baby Boomers are retiring and uh they're pretty well off and what they do is they go out to restaurants they go traveling they go to health services and that's where we need all the jobs so that was standing the fact that we've seen 500 base Point increase in the Federal federal funds rate the demand for labor remains very strong and part of it may not be interest rate some sort of all so the recession fares and the US are now beginning to fade not just with a stronger jobs data but also with the way crude is shaping upright there's been a recovery there uh are you getting a sense that they they may not be a full-blown recession at all in the US and if that's the case how do Equity investors across the globe approach this well I I think that uh a lot of uh issues have kind of come together very quickly here I think the reason the market did so well on Friday was because as you said the economies still shows no signs of falling into recession or no serious signs uh clearly some sections of the economy have been in a recession and yet their employment isn't an all-time record high look at Construction Construction and employment's all-time record high look at truckers truck drivers are all-time record high uh so I think that's helped the market the markets the concerns about the market has been that it's fairly narrow it's been kind of the mega cap eight you know the biggest technology names and actually it's been the mega cap 2 Microsoft and Apple now gone for 14 of the market I think on a global basis the U.S is looking like its economy is doing pretty well and that should actually be a positive for the dollar and it may be a bit of a hurdle for markets overseas we are in India we wake up to news that one Regional Bank or the other has more 40 percent or fifty percent higher or 40 50 lower do you think that this uh banking crisis could actually come to derail everything or do you think it's pretty much been taken care of and also in that sort of a backdrop you know going by all that you said I think in the last time we chatted you briefly hinted that maybe the S P 500 starts trending towards at 4600 Mark is that still on the cards that that's still my target I still think we'll be at 4 600 by the end of the year I think in the short term the market may continue to rise here maybe by another two percent but I I don't think we're out of the trading range just yet we've been actually moving sideways with a lot of volatility around 4 000 since last summer and so I I do think that uh it's going to probably be later this summer early fall where the market starts to move towards uh 40 4 600.
where does it leave Emerging Markets I mean do you expect the dollar to strengthen a little bit because I mean again there have been calls for imminent demise of the dollar as well which perhaps may not pan out of the US is still okay right well uh you know one thing I didn't mention that I was just asked about was the banking crisis and I think the banking crisis is going to limit the fed's ability to raise interest rates the FED doesn't have to do another 100 basis points if the banking crisis basically amounts to a hundred basis point increase at the FED funds rate so I think that's something important to consider uh on the other hand the strong economy uh may very well continue to cause inflation to persist a while longer and so the FED I think is sort of uh where it wanted to be it wanted to be restrictive it's there and I think it's restrictive enough to keep the dollar relatively firm Emerging Markets I think it's uh you know I don't think we can generalize you know India's done quite well over the past couple years uh there's a lot of geopolitical issues now where investors that used to go to China are starting to have second thoughts about that and of course we're seeing companies looking to move their supply chains to to places like India and so I think some Emerging Markets are going to benefit from the increasing geopolitical tensions so uh since we're talking about India right there are two things as working in India's favor one of course is that earnings have picked up especially large Pockets like banking Auto technology even and the other thing is that valuations are now looking better than they were at the start of fy23 I mean we were trading around 23 times forward and now India is about 18 times do you think these two reasons are reason enough for the Bulls to sort of come back for the uptrend to resume in the Indian markets well I think I think the the factors you're mentioning earnings and valuation are always the key drivers of the markets but I think we also have to factor in as I mentioned before the geopolitical developments uh the world is changing and it seems to be uh splitting into uh two spheres of influence China's fear of influence and America's uh sphere of influence India sort of Falls kind of in the middle it is sort of in that sweet spot where it will continue to benefit from the growth in Asia generally in China in particular but I think it also will benefit in being considered to be a world-class democracy along with others that uh and therefore a member of both spheres of influence all right Missy hardney always good hearing your thoughts thanks so much for stopping by and uh filling Us in with your inputs and let's hope by the end of this year the mother Market that's the U.S market S P 500 could head to around 4600 uh time to slip into a short break when you come back as promised we'll get straight to the top stocks that you need to track don't go anywhere
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