저자: SvenCarlin,Ph.D. · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 장기적으로 신흥국과 원자재·귀금속에 선투자하고, 선진국 자산은 비싸므로 비중을 줄이는 것이 유리하다는 주장. 경제 구조: 경제성장의 2/3는 생산성, 1/3은 단기·장기 부채 사이클에 좌우된다고 설명. 단기 부채 사이클은 약 5~10년 주기로 중앙은행 금리 정책의 영향을 받음. 장기 부채 사이클: 미국은 1930년 대공황 이후 약 85년이 지나 부채가 GDP 대비 크게 늘어 지속 불가능하며, 언젠가 붕괴해 장기 디레버리징이 올 것이라고 주장. 금리가 하락해온 상황에서 향후 경기침체 시 금리 인하 여력이 없어 스태그플레이션 위험이 있다고 봄. 생산성 전망: 인도(10% 이상), 태국(6%대), 중국(7%), 멕시코·싱가포르·한국·러시아·아르헨티나·헝가리(약 5% 내외), 미국(약 2%), 유럽은 부진할 것으로 전망. 역사적 GDP 점유율: 1602~1870년 아시아 비중이 가장 컸고, 미국은 1950년대 정점 후 하락 추세. 인도 등 아시아 비중 회복을 장기 흐름으로 제시. 투자 전략: 현재 선진국 자산은 비싸고 신흥국 자산은 상대적으로 싸다고 평가. 연준·ECB·일본이 돈을 찍는 한 선진국 자산 버블은 지속될 수 있으나 전환 시점은 예측 불가하다고 언급. 원자재와 귀금속은 저평가 상태라 비중 확대를 권고하며, 지금 확대하지 않으면 나중에 늦는다고 강조. 신흥국은 낮은 밸류에이션과 높은 배당수익률로 선제 대비 가치가 있다고 봄. 리스크: 시점 예측 불가, 인플레이션이 낮은 기간이 길었다는 점, 선진국 자산 조정 가능성. 출연자 전망: 장기 전망이며 단기 가격 방향은 명시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
good day fellow investors one of the most important things for an investor to know is what's going on in the economy in the global economy in the credit cycle what's going on with the productivity of the country he is invested in you might not think that is important because those are very long-term trends however is it take a look at those your returns can really be extraordinary in the long term one of the person that's very focused on such long term trends and he studies human history for thousands of years back to see what helped me going on with humanity with financial markets with culture is raid au Virginia hedge fund manager pretty famous and especially those papers when Tony Robbins based his book brought practically around ray Daniel and the all-weather portfolio strategy all-weather portfolio strategy looks at what's going on in economics and makes a portfolio that is all whether that's whatever happens you are protected and you make good returns I'll make a video on how to create an all-weather portfolio in this environment but first let's look at the economic environment through radios I he's very famous for creating YouTube videos that has more than four four million clicks how the economic machine works let's a half an hour video is better to read the free hundred page report on his website I have of course read the report and I will shortly summarize it here in this video so stay tuned for essential economic knowledge that will improve your investment returns there are three major things that impact an economy first and most important 2/3 of GDP and growth and economics is impacted by productivity so how productivity goes so will the economy the other 1/3 is impacted by short-term and long-term cycle and you can see in this figure in the long term the economic growth is pretty stable in short-term and long-term cycles are creating these balances but if the productivity growth so grows the economy almost at a straight line but the main factor is productivity we'll come back to that later let's not see the short term and the long term debt cycle the short term debt cycle is most influenced by monetary policy and the short term situation in the car when the economy is expanding the central bank in this case the Fed is forced to trim interest rates which eventually leads to a short-term contract with out the best businesses and then recovery starts again especially when monetary policy is if this happens every ten years five to ten years on average so we should go into history expect the recession in the next few years the long-term debt cycle is something completely different this is really coming from Delhi of historical research that goes back centuries the long-term debt cycle explains how countries enter a long term 75 year debt cycle the last time the US economy and other developed world economies were at the top of the death cycle world during the Great Depression of 1930 now we are already eighty-five years later and we have we can see how us total depth as a percentage of GDP has been booming in the last 40 years this is of course unsustainable and somewhere in the future this cycle will go bust and then it will be very painful long-term deleveraging for the US on top of its household debt service is very high almost unbearable in the long term in relation to historical level so if we looked at what has been going on interest rates have been growing up to a certain point in the last 70 80 years and then steadily declining in all the order to save our from the de leveraging process in the last eight years the Fed has kept interest rates below so that it keeps the situation as it however sooner or later when there is a recession the Fed won't be able to lower interest rate it will be only possible to print money that we will have economic stagnation and inflation the worst possible outcome for an economy that scores the so called stagflation at the end of the cycle that's usually what happens and there are other issues for developed economies and they are coming from emerging markets if we look at the future expected productivity per country we can see that India will growth for the period more than 10% Thailand is six cylinders in China 7% Mexico at around five percent Singapore Korea Russia Argentina Hungary and then the u.s.
will probably grow as productivity 2% which is still good European countries are fried I'm sorry to say that that is the truth and let me show you another piece of history that's very important and that gives me an indication of what expects us in the next 20 to 40 years I always want to know what will happen in the next 10 20 years because I want my money to have the tailwind of inevitable economic trends don't go against economic trends this day will show the share of global GDP per country or continent and you can see that from the 1602 1870 the largest economical share of the world was in Asia much larger than Europe only later the u.s.
became more important which the peak in the nineteen fifties and health is slowly declining since then with the effects of colonization in India and communism in China the political environment is India stops having an impact on the economy we can see how their share their GDP global share has been booming and given their productivity growth explained before it will continue to boom in the future so economic trends for the future 1020 years are clear how will that affect our investments well the problem is that I don't know when will the when will something change in financial markets around the world for now we have extremely expensive well developed world assets relatively fair price emerging markets efforts cheap commodities that's the situation as long as the Fed keeps interest rates low prints money European Central Bank print money Japan print as much money will have inflated developed SS I don't know when that will change and that's always the problem in such long-term trends so the only thing I can do is be prepared and thankfully it doesn't cost much to be prepared if you're overweight developed market look at emerging markets yourself lower valuation higher dividend yield thus the cost of being prepared by increasing your exposure to emerging markets is even lower commodities are achieved and we have been eight years without inflation or low inflation when inflation picks up eventually it has to pick up thanks to the huge amount of money that's helping printed you want to be in commodities so they are cheap the downside risk is low the potential is very high precious metals also similar situation with commodities so you might want to increase your exposure and you want you want to do it now when the cost is low later when things already start to change it will be too late then it will be getting interesting to look at developed markets so it's all about finding miss pricings finding low-cost exposures for high potential rewards I'll be making a review about how to create an all-weather for following this environment how to make a portfolio strategy so please subscribe for more content leave your comments below a mess very interested in seeing how do you see this environment how do you see this lobster macroeconomic changes and trends I feel in the next video
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