저자: Ale · 외국인
요약 보기
AMD 신형 Threadripper 가격·출시일 발표와 리테일 주식 반등을 다루며, 개인적으로 AMD와 장기적으로 강세를 기대하지만 리테일 업종은 아마존 때문에 장기 투자 대상으로 회의적이라는 결론 [AMD 신형 CPU] Threadripper 1950X(16코어/32스레드)는 약 $999~1,000, 1920X(12코어/24스레드)는 약 $800으로 발표됨. 칩과 메인보드는 8월 초 출시 예상. 발표된 인텔 대비 가격 비교: 인텔 i9-7960X(16코어급)는 $1,700, i9-7900X(10코어)는 약 $1,000로, AMD가 같은 가격에 코어·스레드 우위라고 주장. AMD 주가는 당일 5% 이상 하락했으나 최근 며칠은 상승세였고, 애널리스트 평균 의견은 Hold(30개 의견). [AMD 전망] 발표자는 AMD가 시장에서 과소평가받고 있으며 내년쯤 주당 약 $20 수준까지 갈 수 있다고 주관적으로 전망함(근거 제시는 부족). [리테일 주식] Target이 2분기 이익 가이던스를 상향(주당 $0.95~1.15 예상 상회)하면서 Macy's, Kohl's, Gap 등 리테일 종목이 4~7% 반등. JC Penney는 장난감 매장 확장 발표로 약 7.8% 상승. 거시 근거로 1분기 미국 GDP 1.4% 성장, 6월 소비지출 1.1% 증가, 소비자신뢰지수 118.9(5월 117.6)를 제시하며 소비 개선 가능성을 언급. 다만 Target 연초 대비 약 -26%, JC Penney -40%, Macy's -37%, Kroger -33%로 부진하며, 아마존 온라인 쇼핑 경쟁 때문에 리테일 장기 투자는 회피하겠다는 입장. 월마트·베스트바이는 상대적으로 낫다고 평가. [기타 종목 언급] Fitbit 당일 6% 이상 상승했으나 프리미엄 스마트워치 전략에 회의적이며 개인적으로 추천하지 않음. Amazon vs Google 구독자 투표 결과 Google 57%, Amazon 43%로 집계됨(발표자는 Amazon 선호). [시장 전반] 당일 나스닥 +2.1%, 다우 +1.0%, S&P500 +1.9%로 보고(시간외 거래 기준 언급). [조건·리스크] 단기 주가 변동은 노이즈로 보고 장기 투자 관점을 강조. 리테일 업종은 아마존 경쟁과 온라인 전환 리스크가 큼.
다듬은 글
Yeah. Hey, what's up everybody? Welcome to Ala's World of Finance and welcome to Stock Market Daily. I hope you're all having a fantastic day. Got a few things to talk about today. So, we're going to talk about AMD because AMD just uh released some information about the Thread Rippers. So, we're going to talk about that.
We're also going to talk about some retail stocks because they had a nice bump today. But, we're going to go over that. We're going to talk about it because Target uh kind of increased their guidance and that helped them and that helped some other retail stocks. But we're going to go we're going to go over it and we're also just going to talk about the markets in general.
But before we get started, I just want to give the results for the last poll question that we had in the last video. So Al's world consensus here. The question was, which stock do you like more, Amazon or Google? And we had a total of 21 votes. 57% went to Google, 43% went to Amazon. So if you were on the fence, now you know.
uh Alice's world consensus here. We voted for Google. Now, just to let you know, my vote did actually go to Amazon and my girlfriend is actually invested in Amazon. So, she also voted for Amazon. So, if you take my vote out and if you take my girlfriend's vote out, then you're left with 19 votes and 63% go to Google and 37% go to Amazon.
So, even more dominant here uh for Google. Now, I do like both stocks a lot, tremendously. I mean, they're both great stocks and you could really just hold them forever. But at the moment, I I guess I'm just a little more bullish on Amazon just because I feel like Amazon is always in the news. We're always talking about Amazon.
You know, it's like, oh, you have a delivery. It was from Amazon. You know, Amazon just acquired Whole Foods, so they're going to be in your grocery store. Uh, you know, that's a that's a cool thing. Where'd you buy it? Oh, I bought on Amazon. Uh, you go into retail stores and and you see people comparing prices with Amazon all the time.
You know, you talk about trying to do stuff in the cloud and and Amazon Web Services and uh Amazon, you know, Prime Video and Prime Music and they're even they even own Twitch. So, they're even involved with gaming and they broadcast esports, which is going to blow up in my opinion. So, I mean, there's just so many things that Amazon does.
It's just incredible. I mean, it's it's like mind-blowing. But, at the same time, Google is also very dominant. And you know people argue about monopolies with both both companies Amazon and Google. So and and Google has their search engine and you know you talk about Google Maps and and all their kind of uh cloud storage and and cloud services and all the things that they do.
It's just amazing. So I really like both stocks. I wouldn't have any problem owning either one. I'm just slightly more bullish on Amazon at the moment. But anyway, thank you everybody for voting. This was kind of cool. We got to see what everybody feels and we got a good amount of votes here. So, 21 total votes.
Uh, but Google did did win this one out. So, 57% compared to 43%. Now, for the next poll question, uh, I'm actually not going to do one in this video. We're going to have one on the next video because the next video that I'm doing is going to be a stock analysis video that you guys have been asking for.
So, you guys asked me to do a stock analysis video on AT&T. So, I'm going to do that. I heard you guys. I'm going to do that video. And on that video, we're going to have a poll question on uh related to AT&T. So, so you guys will get that question when that video comes out and you can vote there. Uh no, no poll question on this video today.
So, anyway, thank you guys for voting and that was that was fun. So, now let's look at the markets here. So, let's go ahead and get started. So, looking at the markets and we're still in extended hours trading by the way, but the Dow Jones closed uh up 10 up 10% not 10% up 10%. and the NASDAQ was up 21% leading the the three major indexes here and the S&P 500 is up.19%.
Now, looking at some popular stocks here, Fitbit, so I actually just made a video on Fitbit and I got like uh you know, mostly positive comments. I think there was like one or two comments that said that, you know, that that they're very bullish on Fitbit. So, they kind of disagreed with me a little bit because I I mentioned that I'm not really bullish on Fitbit.
I'm I'm kind of okay, you know, if anybody wants to invest in Fitbit, I'm kind of okay with it. But I definitely wouldn't touch it because with their upcoming smartwatch that they're saying is going to really like help their company and kind of save them. It's a premium smartwatch. It's very expensive.
is hundreds of dollars and I just I don't know about I don't know how much you want to exercise and and risk damaging your your you know premium you know what was it like $300 or $400 maybe like $300 uh smartwatch I I just I can't see that like I can't visualize that. I I think that they're aiming for a more premium watch and that market is heavily saturated.
So, they'd have to stick with cheaper uh like um sports bands and things like that and they're just not doing well with that even right now. So, they haven't been doing well. Their their stock is just it just keeps going down. So, I don't know. I just personally I can't I can't really recommend investing in them.
But that isn't to say that, you know, that I'm not wrong. You know, I could absolutely be wrong. And today, Fitbit actually went up. So, that's very good for Fitbit. And very good if any of you guys are invested in Fitbit, that's very good for you guys. So, Fitbit stock up over 6% today. Very good. Target is up almost 5% and we're going to talk about Target because retail stocks were up today.
So, we're going to go over retail and Macy's here, another retail stock up uh getting close to 5% up over 4%. Tesla is down 1.76% for the day as well. Now, looking at some of the gainers and losers here. So, GAP is up over 5%. Again, we're talking about retail here. So, retail stocks are did very well today, and we're going to go over that.
Uh, let's see here. So, Kohl's, another retail stock. Uh, Advanced Micro Devices. So, AMD announced today some of they gave some more details on the Thread Ripper and gave some prices and, you know, talked a little bit about release date and things like that. So, let's look at it here. So, the AMD Ryzen Thread Ripper 1950X, that's the 16 core, 32 thread with 3.4 4 GHz base frequency and 4 GHz turbo frequency.
It's going to be priced at basically $1,000. So basically $999 or $1,000. And we're going to compare with the Intel pricing in a second. But looking at it here, there's also the Ryzen Thread Ripper 1920X. And that one is going to have 12 cores, 24 threads at 3.5 GHz base and the same I think it's going to have the same boost as the other one.
And it's going to be available for about $800. So a little, you know, less cores, less threads. uh and $200 cheaper. Okay. Now, looking at it here, the chips and the motherboards should be available in early August. So, some of the reports I was reading was early August. And when looking at it here, they also talked about the AMD the a not the AMD, the Alienware uh PC.
I think it was what was it called? It was like the Alienware I think it was like Area 51 or something. Area 51 PC. I think that's what it was. And that one they previously said that it was going to be released July 27th. Well, they they actually confirmed that that's just a pre-order date and it'll actually be released around the same time as the other Ryzen ones as the other Ryzen CPUs in early August because this Alienware is actually going to have Ryzen.
So, uh it's going to have Thread Rippers. So, that that's why. Okay. Now, looking at it here, they also talked about Ryzen 3 and Ryzen 3 will be available in July 2027. So, we're looking at it here. The Ryzen 3 1200 and the Ryzen 3 1300X. Both of them have four cores and four threads. Those should be available on July 27.
It's going to be great and it's going to be really good for AMD to have those out. Okay, so let's compare some prices here with Intel. So, when looking at the Intel Core X series, uh that processor family. So, let's look at their high-end. So, looking at AMD's high-end Thread Ripper at 16 core, 32 threads, it's going to be at $1,000.
Intel's high-end is the i97980XE. That one has 18 cores and 36 threads. So, two more cores, four more threads, and $1,000 more. So, that is a much more pricey chip there. Now, the uh the Intel Core i9 7960X has the same cores and threads as uh AMD's highest Thread Ripper, and that one is going to be priced at 1,700.
So, you're still talking $700 more for the same cores and same threads. Now, when looking at it here, we can also look at, let's see here, the Intel Core i9 7900X has 10 cores and 20 threads, and it's priced at $1,000. So, basically the same price for the highest end Thread Ripper, which will have uh you know, it'll have six more cores and 12 more threads, and it'll just completely destroy this Intel Core i9 in multitasking.
I I think it'll absolutely destroy it. So, and it's the same price. So, I mean, it's I think this is really great news for AMD. I I um subscribe to a lot of YouTubers who talk a lot about PCs and they talk a lot about um processing chips and all kinds of different stuff like that. And so many of them are just really hyping up AMD.
Like, they're saying that they can't wait to to get these AMD chips and to really test them out more and to play around with them. And a lot of them are very bullish on these chips. And they're I'm telling you a lot of these pe a lot of these people in this market the market that they're trying to target AMD and Intel this market they know what they're doing and they know that Intel has been overpricing for a while and they want competition because anytime you're in a market you always want competition.
Okay? So you always want competition because it'll not only help with pricing but it'll also help with performance. Okay? So anytime you you have competition that means you got to lower your prices and you got to increase your performance. So this market that both of them are targeting, they want AMD to succeed.
I'm telling you guys, they want AMD to succeed because if AMD succeeds, it's just going to be better prices for the pe the consumers in this market and better performance. So I really believe that a lot of people are going to be picking up Ryzen and Thread Ripper and those type of things. So anyway, so that that's just kind of I don't mean to go off on a rant, but I'm just saying I think that I really think that they're going to do a lot better than than a lot of bears are are thinking that they will.
Now, speaking of bears, AMD stock went down today. So AMD stock did actually go down today, looking at it here, down over 5%. And they were actually doing good the last couple days. So, uh, they kind of just pulled back here a little bit, but, you know, who knows why they dropped. You know, it could could be people cashing in on this short-term profit kind of like traders and things like that and and um and there could be some manipulation.
Who knows? You know, maybe some huge investor is trying to get in, so they got to lower the price so that he can get in or who knows to be honest. But that's why I try not to pay too much attention to it. I'm a long-term investor and I try to look at it that way. So, and AMD's performance, stock performance is still green across the board and they're still doing very well.
But their average analyst rating here is a hold with 30 ratings. But I'm telling you guys, I really think I I think people aren't giving AMD enough credit. I really think that they're going to be I don't know. I mean, I want to say like around $20 per share probably by next year. Some something similar to that.
Maybe not exactly that, you know, but maybe around there. And I really believe in NV. That's just my opinion. I'm not telling you guys what to do, but I'm just saying that's my opinion. Okay. So, looking at retail stocks, starting with Target. Target raised its earning guidance and they said that they did this because they have seen improved traffic and sales over the past two months.
So Target stock went up almost 5% and that triggered a lot of other retail stocks to go up as well. So when looking at it here, Target said that they expect second quarter profits to come in above its forecast range which was nu 95 cents per share to $1.15 per share. Now as a result Macy's and Kohl's their shares went up around 4%.
Walmart was up a little over 1%. I believe Dollar Tree and Costco was up around 1% as well. But looking at Urban Outfitters, Gap, Kohl's, and Dillards, they're all up around five or 6%. Sears, which is Sears is actually like they're even bearish on themselves, but they went up around 7.2%. So, they're they're up very significant.
And then J C Penney also announced some good news here. They said that they plan to revive foot traffic by putting in specialty toy shops at all of its remaining stores. And uh this report here that I was reading, it says that it's an attempt to cash in on customers nostalgia for J. C. Penneyy's Christmas time cataloges.
And the company said it's been pleasantly surprised by test runs of larger toy inventories. J. C. Penneyy's shares climbed more than 7.8% on Thursday. So they their stock went up very significantly as well. Okay. So now let's talk about my opinion. So, I'm going to give you kind of my bullish opinion first and then I'm going to give you my bearish opinion.
And to be honest, I really have more of a bearish opinion. But let's kind of start with the with the bullish side of things. So, I I did Okay, so I was looking at this and I was thinking, okay, what what would make retail stocks go up? Well, you would need to have a strong economy, right? You need to have a good economy so that consumers have enough money to spend and then they can go and spend it on retail, you know, in retail stores and that will bring up retail stock, right?
So, I did some research on this. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, they had a report on the June 29th. They said that the US economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter. Labor has been doing well and wages have been going up. And this can increase a household's buying power, which means that the household can spend more money on, you guessed it, you know, retail stores, right?
In retail stores. In fact, when looking at consumer spending in June, it rose 1.1%. That's almost double from 0.6% in May. And when looking at the consumer confidence index, uh the consumer confidence index, it rose to 118.9 in June from 117.6 in May. And a lot of analysts are saying that this translates to higher consumer spending because obviously you increase the household's buying power, it's going to increase their spending.
Okay, so now let's you know, so why am I not why am I not investing in retail stocks? Why am I a little more bearish on them? Okay, so I'm gonna give that case now. So looking at Target stock here, they're up almost 5% today, right? But looking year to date, they're down almost 27%. They're down over 26% year-to date, and the average rating is a hold.
So, looking at some other stocks here, J C Penney is up over 7% and they're down over 40% year-to date. And Macy's was up around 4% today, and they're down around 37% year to date. And and then Kroger, you know, Amazon kind of Amazon just took over um Whole Foods. Well, Kroger, which does like grocery stuff, they're uh they weren't up 0.5%, but then they're down 33% year to date.
So, it's still not looking good for retail to be honest. And when I look at it here, when when I think about, you know, why am I not investing in retail? It's really because of Amazon and online shopping. And a lot of these retail stores are not even diversified. So, put it this way. You you can't really compete with Amazon too much in online shopping.
You can try. I mean, we've seen some stocks try like, okay, for example, Walmart, they're actually up year to date. Um, Best Buy, they're actually up year to date. Target is down, but even Target has a decent online shopping presence. Best Buy has a pretty good uh online shopping presence. I've definitely bought quite a few things from Best Buy online.
And Walmart has a decent shopping pre online shopping presence as well. And Walmart even acquired, what was it? Uh, Jet.com. I believe it was Jet.com. They acquired them to compete more with Amazon. So, they're doing things to try to adapt, you know, and hopefully they continue, right? They got to continue to and improve on it.
But Best Buy also has a really good gaming program where they offer like very competitive discounts to Amazon, uh, like very similar, and they also have a really good credit card. They have a really good rewards program. Um, Walmart, uh, Walmart has really good online shopping. Walmart is very diversified in their store.
You can go into Walmart and you can get clothing, you can get, uh, you can get anything. uh food, pharmaceuticals, uh you can get electronics, you can get like almost anything at Walmart. But you look at stores like J C Penney or maybe Macy's. What what would you buy there? You go in there for just what?
Clothes, maybe, you know, some jewelry, maybe some cosmetics, things like that. But I mean, at the end of the day, you can get all those things at Walmart. You can get all those things at Amazon. Uh Best Buy may not be as diversified as uh as say Walmart, but Best Buy also does a really good job in what they do do, which is like electronics and stuff like that.
And they have Geek Squad, so they have instore services and those services can also come out to your house. We know that Amazon is trying to implement that as well. But I mean that just kind of proves my point. Amazon is trying to take everybody out and they're trying to do anything that they need to do to take everybody out.
They're trying to form their own kind of geek squad service. I forget what it's called. I think it's like Amazon like home. I don't know, Amazon Home Service or something like that, but I think they come out and they actually do stuff like that as well. And and now Amazon is taking over uh took over Whole Foods.
So now they're they're they're starting to have more of a or at least they're trying to have an in-person presence, which is really the advantage and the strength of a lot of these retail stores is that they can have an instore in-person presence. I think that plays to Best Buy's benefit because with electronics, usually you want to get professionals opinions, right?
So you can get sales associates who are hopefully educated and they know and they know what they're talking about and they can kind of help you out. Whereas Amazon doesn't really have that. But but Amazon is, I'm sure, is going to start building up that at some point as well. So I don't know. The point is Amazon is a beast and it's going to continue to be a beast.
And the companies who are really trying to fight back against Amazon, like maybe Best Buy and Walmart, they're they're kind of they're they're they're fighting back and they're staying along, but I I don't know how long they can do that. And all these other retail stores like J C Penney and Macy's and these little clothing stores, I don't know if they can really compete, so I would never touch them.
But I think those are great stocks for traders and maybe people who are shorting and things like that and you want to take advantage of different like little dips and things like that. uh you know like traders and stuff like that. But as a long-term investor, I just can't really wrap my head around retail.
I just can't. Even Best Buy, I like Best Buy, and if I was forced to invest in one retail store, maybe Best Buy or Walmart, but I I would never touch them to be honest. There's other stocks that I'd love to invest in more. And honestly, I'd rather invest in Amazon than invest in those. But anyway, that's just kind of my opinion, but I don't know what you guys think.
But anyway, uh I think that's about it for today, guys. So, thank you so much for watching. and I really appreciate it and I hope that you enjoyed the video and if you're new, please subscribe. If you like the video, please hit the like button. And if you watch the video all the way through to this very moment in time, then you are I'm not going to say your retail stocks because they're up today, but they could be down tomorrow.
So, you never know with retail. So, I'm not going to say your retail stocks. Can't really say you're AMD because even though I'm very bullish on AMD, I think that uh that well, they dropped today. So, I can't really say that you're AMD either. So, I would say, you know what? In the spirit of having that last poll question, I'm going to say you're Google, right?
You guys voted for Google. It looks like Google is the stock that you guys like more. So, you guys are Google and and I believe in you guys and you guys are a beast and you guys are amazing and I really appreciate you guys. So, anyway, thank you for watching and I hope that you all have a wonderful, beautiful day and take care.
Comments 0