원문 보기
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the channel. In today's episode, we're going to look at next week's catalyst. We're going to talk about Tesla earnings, my expectation around that. Am I bullish? Am I bearish? What are my thoughts? I also have Kathy Wood's outlook out today where she has a or out today about 2026 kind of her full year expectations.
And I want to play that for you. Again, Kathy Wood was one of the first adopters of Tesla. Made a crap ton of money buying uh Tesla stock. And we'll hear what she has to say about Tesla, about technology, about AI, all of the main themes for this year. So, those are the things we're really going to cover in today's episode.
Some of the catalyst for next week, Tesla's earnings, and what Kathy Wood says about this market. Hit that like button as well as subscribe to the channel if you guys have not done so already. Work is cut out for us in today's episode. If you guys want to come trade and invest alongside us, check that link out down below in the description of today's episode.
Now, let's start this video off with some of the catalyst for this upcoming week from a broader market perspective. Economic data on Monday. You don't have much. Okay, there's really not anything. You have the inflation numbers out of Canada. Again, not really a catalyst. We just had CPI that came in much better than expected for America.
That's three months in a row of better than expected CPI and the markets really haven't reacted much to it. We're not going to react from Canada's numbers. Tuesday, we have the ADP employment change weekly. You're expecting around 12,000 uh weekly job ads in that report. Wednesday, don't have much of anything.
pending home sales uh month over month and year-over-year construction spending month over month as well for September and October. But that is it. On Thursday, you're going to get core PCE month over month. Expecting a 0.1% number, like expecting a really good number there. Last month was 0.2%. Core PCE um month over month for November expecting 0.1%.
versus uh uh we don't have a number for last month, but it it it says the consensus is 0.2% and the forecast is 0.1%. Headline month overmonth is expected at uh 0 3% and uh last month was 0.4%. Now, you're also going to get personal spending month over month for October expecting that at 0.1% down from 0.3% last month and personal spending month overmonth for November expected at 0.5%.
So, that will move the needle for rate cut expectations to some degree. Although, it's kind of weird what's happening right now because the labor market is not great, not terrible. Inflation has been nothing but great for months and then and rate cut probabilities are still coming down. So, you know, you've like you went from pricing in a rate cut in March to pricing that in in April to now pricing in a cut in June and nearly pricing in a cut in July.
So you went from pricing in your first cut in March to now you're pricing one in in July or June and almost in July for your first rate cut. Not like three rate cuts, but your first rate cut. That that's kind of weird at a time in which inflation has really been coming in better than expected for three months in a row.
Now, Thursday, we get your GDP growth rate quarter over quarter final numbers for Q3. Expecting that at about 4.3%. Um, as well, not expecting that's going to move markets all too much cuz that's what we're expecting, right? It's not going to be a big um shocker or a big surprise. You also get the Kansas Fed Composite Index and the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index next week on Thursday.
Friday, don't really have much of anything. flash numbers for the S&P Global Composite uh PMI, global manufacturing PMI, and global services PMI that will be coming out and then final numbers for Michigan consumer sentiment for January. So, in fact, there's not a whole lot in terms of like economic data that's going to be moving the markets.
The big catalyst as of now could be on Tuesday with the Supreme Court ruling. We know the Supreme Court is going to rule on on something on Tuesday. We just don't know what it is. Now, for two weeks now, we've been waiting on the Supreme Court ruling. And if we get that this Tuesday, that that could be big because why?
Well, Supreme Court rules on tariffs. It's going to be better than feared. Wall Street is bracing for the worst when it comes down to it. And you're likely to see a buy the news event. and uh a buy the news event could look really good for this market. Now, one thing I will point out again is the AI investor sentiment survey, as I did in the last video, is sitting at a one-year bullish high, but yet stocks are not like super bullish.
Look at Tesla. Tesla's down over 12% in the start of 2026. Yet the AI investor sentiment survey shows by far the best bull number in the past year. It's because of these catalysts that we have upcoming Supreme Court ruling. You're only going to see stocks do so good heading into that because of the potential volatility that you could see if that ruling comes in bad, right?
I I would fully expect the markets are going to have a 10% correction if the Supreme Court has a a you know worst case scenario kind of ruling. I don't think it's going to happen. I think we're solidly in the buy the news camp for uh the Supreme Court ruling, but it is a possibility. Now, the other set of catalysts we're going to have for this week and really over the next couple of weeks is earnings.
Tuesday you have 3M, Fifth, Third Bank, regional banks really a lot of those on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. You also have Netflix Tuesday and after hours. Wednesday you have Johnson and Johnson, Halle Burton um in pre-market after hours, Kinder Morgan, a bunch of regional banks again. Thursday you have PNG in the morning and then uh you have Intel in after hours as well as Capital One.
Capital One's going to be a big one. What's really interesting here is Tesla is not on this chart on on this list. Tesla typically reports the week after major banks. The first, you know, uh like the 21st, 22nd, 23rd, which is this upcoming week. This week is I mean 21st is Wednesday, 22nd is Thursday, 23rd is Friday.
And Tesla's not here scheduled yet. They have not confirmed what date they're actually going to report. I think it would still be this week, probably on on Thursday. Um, if not, it's the following week, but it would be pretty weird if Tesla does not report this week because the following week you start to get like big tech earnings and Tesla always reports before your Apples and your Googles and your Amazons, right?
Always the week before. And let's face it, I mean, you're going to hear a lot of bullish things for 2026. You're going to hear about Robo Taxi. You're going to hear about the Tesla Semi. You're going to hear about the new uh solar panels that Tesla is launching and and now starting to sell. You're going to hear about the new mega pack.
You're going to hear about FSD subscriptions and why they think that's a good idea. I mean, I'm not expecting to hear too many things negative on this on this call. And it's it's really about what's priced in, what's, you know, going to be said, and what's 2026 going to look like. And the fact of the matter is, you know, Tesla's at $440 a share, but it's it's not pricing in that much of an optimistic scenario for 2026.
I think uh you know, the setup looks really good heading into heading into earning. Now obviously depending on what is said you know the reaction will be different. Tesla historically has a negative reaction upon earnings most of the time not every time most of the time but when you are down this much heading into earnings it does uh make the probability for for a rally a lot higher versus you know if if you rally into earnings then you most likely are going to sell off.
Now with that said I want to share uh Kathy Wood's outlook with you. It says here, "Arc Invest CEO Kathy Wood on 2026 outlook expects strong deflationary pressures." So, take a listen on the markets, tech crypto, and her outlook for 2026. Kathy Wood is here, Arc Invest CEO and CIO. Um, 2025 was uh quite a year both up and down and back again to some degree.
um when you when you look at some of the big holdings that you have, whether it be Tesla, maybe we get into crypto and everything else, where where do you think things are headed and to the extent that there were things that you were wrong about, frankly, in 25? Uh what was the lesson? Sure. Uh well, great to see you.
Happy New Year, Andrew, uh Becky, and Joe. Um so yes last year Morning Star had in the morning star uh rankings uh I think we had uh uh three of the top five or four of the top five were ARC uh funds top performing. Uh of course we had two big corrections. We had the trade uh turmoil in in April. That was an amazing buying opportunity.
And what we do typically is concentrate towards our highest conviction names when we have an opportunity like that. We did that. Same with the um same with the uh government shutdown. That was a little a little less uh severe. Uh what did we learn? Well, you know, one of the things that we've learned over the last few years is we can see inflation coming down clearly, but it in the reported numbers it is stuck.
Uh and I think a lot of people are wondering, wait a minute, this market is near uh near record high valuations. How can this be? This is a setup for a correction. And uh we're looking at other periods in history. If you go if you look into the '9s up to 97 I think it was and in the 2000s, the early 2000s, we had very strong markets uh a as the multiple moved down.
Uh so what does uh last year teach us? We must assume that valuations are going to compress and we do we do that uh in our bottomup analysis for every company. Uh so but we're pretty excited about the inflation outlook thanks to oil prices, housing prices big time. You see the home builders KB home cutting its prices by 7%.
Uh and others following uh and productivity gains, unit labor costs coming down uh dramatically. Uh I think on a year-over-year basis, they're up 1.2% but last the last quarter reported they were actually negative. Uh so there are a lot of deflationary pressures and the last one I'll cite is technology.
Uh our focus is exclusively on technologically enabled innovation and in each of the five major platforms robotics, energy storage, uh artificial intelligence especially uh blockchain technology and multiomic sequencing healthcare. I saw uh the CEO of bio uh very good uh those [clears throat] are all very deflationary in their impact.
So pretty excited. We think the surprises are going to be on the low side of inflation expectations. Tesla's always been one of your big holdings. Um, you know, in terms of just sales, obviously things have been challenged, but there's a lot of excitement about autonomy. There's a lot of excitement about uh the Optimus robot.
What is your what is your sense of where things stand at Tesla right now? Yes. Uh, the EV sales environment has been challenged, but the market is shifting its focus to the robo taxi opportunity. So we're moving from 15% gross margins in autos the hardware to more of a SAS model where robo taxes recurring revenue model is uh those margins are more in the 70s and 80s and I think as analysts understand that that's where Tesla's going and they start uh building in the model for robo taxis uh they see uh they see tremendous tremendous opportunity.
So, it's been interesting to me to see upgrades even by some auto analysts uh now that they're beginning to understand that this is not an auto company. Maybe they're working with their tech analysts and and understanding the stock a bit better. So, when you think though about autonomous uh robo taxis and you think about um robots, what what does that look like?
And and is there an argument? Look, some of the critics would say, you know, cars aren't cars aren't working the way they're supposed to be working right now in terms of what's happening with the EV market and and some of these other ambitious efforts are going to take a long time to get to a meaningful escape velocity.
Well, we're keeping an eye on how quickly Tesla's footprint is expanding here, and it's expanding a lot faster, I think, than many people expected. Uh and it's interesting to watch Whimo as well. We draw in Texas. Uh uh we draw the footprint and and they're competing with each other. Competition is a good thing.
Uh so I think this is actually going to happen faster than most uh analysts think um in terms of the proliferation of robo taxis uh especially if we get more federal legislation instead of just state byst state. On the Optimus robot side, um there's a lot of excitement in robotics that in the private markets has been a huge space this this past year.
Um we look at an Optimus robot. uh our chief futurist Brett uh Winton working with Sam and Daniel have um concluded that an Optimus robot is going to be 200,000 times more difficult to get working correctly relative to uh relative to a robo taxi. So you'll have you'll have waves of Optimus uh improving with time, but full human is is going to be quite difficult.
Nonetheless, uh the the robots that we're seeing, you know, pick and pack and and and lifting things, they're they're starting to make waves. Should we talk about Bitcoin? We can talk about SpaceX. I mean, that's going to probably go public this year. What do you think it's going to go public at? Well, this next round is about $800 billion.
Uh so, a near doubling. Um, and we wouldn't be surprised to see it uh become the first trillion dollar company. And uh especially now that there's a new opportunity, data centers in space uh to avoid uh all of the not in my backyard uh obstacles that Tesla and others are facing. So, um we're starting to do the modeling work on that.
Wow. Uh Kathy Wood just gave some powerful bold predictions for Tesla's stock in uh 2026 and specifically in regards to Roboaxi. They're as bullish as as they've ever been and she thinks Roboaxi is going to scale a lot faster than Wall Street thinks and uh earnings is is going to be a huge catalyst to kind of reiterate that guidance of how many robo taxes are going to be out on the road.
You know, what's what's the future look like? Even more important than 2026 is 2027, right? If if we have a thousand robo taxis or 2,000 robo taxis out on the road this year, that's one thing. But, uh, Wall Street's going to start caring more about 2027 the deeper we get into 2026. So, let me know your thoughts on this down below in the comment section.
Hit that like button as well as subscribe to the channel. And, uh, yeah, have a great rest of your day and a great weekend. and I will see you in the next
Comments 0