저자: TerrySmith · 외국인
요약 보기
테리 스미스의 펀드는 10년간 연 약 19.5%(수수료 차감 후)로 S&P500 평균 약 17%를 2.5%p 상회했다는 점을 강조하며, 그의 투자 철학과 기준을 설명하는 영상이다. 성과 비교: 발표자는 펀드를 FTSE100이 아닌 S&P500과 비교한다. 연 2.5%p 차이가 30년 복리로 쌓이면 자산이 약 2배 차이 난다는 예시를 든다. 투자 원칙: '좋은 기업을 찾고, 과하게 지불하지 말고, 그냥 두라(find great companies, don't overpay, do nothing)'가 그의 핵심 모토다. 발표자는 그의 연례 서한을 근거로 든다. 핵심 지표: 1순위는 투하자본수익률(ROCE, 영업현금흐름/(자기자본+순부채))이다. 찰리 멍거의 발언을 인용해 ROCE가 장기 수익률의 좋은 예측 변수라고 설명한다. 그의 포트폴리오 기업들은 S&P500·FTSE100 대비 ROCE가 높다. 수익성 지표: 매출총이익률, 영업이익률, 현금전환율, 이자보상배율을 본다. 그의 기업들은 매출총이익률과 영업이익률이 S&P500보다 높고, 현금전환율은 비슷하다. 밸류에이션: PER 대신 잉여현금흐름수익률(FCF yield)을 쓴다. 평균적으로 S&P500보다 약간 비싸지만, 품질과 성장성을 감안하면 여전히 합리적이라는 입장이다. 버핏의 '평범한 기업을 싸게 사는 것보다 훌륭한 기업을 적정가에 사는 것이 낫다'는 말을 인용한다. 포트폴리오: 상위 20개 종목이 대부분 비중을 차지한다. 최근 2개 분기 13F 기준으로 알파벳(3Q/4Q 2021), 마이크로소프트(4Q 2021), 아마존(3Q 2021)을 추가 매수했다. 발표자는 이들이 높은 ROCE와 수익성, 낮은 부채를 가졌다고 본다. 리스크: 그의 기업들은 대체로 우량 블루칩이라 폭락장에서 하락 방어가 상대적으로 낫다고 설명한다. 다만 밸류에이션이 시장 평균보다 높은 편이다. 출연자 전망: 종목별 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
in this video we will look at fund that is run by terry smith he's a british warren buffett style investor with great track record we will look at what ratios he looks at when he finds businesses for investing and then we're gonna look at two main additions to his portfolio during the last two quarters it is absolutely free and you will not miss a single new video imagine that you can copy world-class athlete or a world-class programmer in investing you can do that and today we're going to look at the portfolio and investment style of terry smith he's a british warren buffett style investor he'piles his annual letter to shareholders for the last 10 years his famous motto is find great companies don't overpay and do nothing and today we're going to compare his performance to the s p 500 usually he compares his fund to the ftse 100 or the mci world index ftc 100 is a british index but most of the companies have revenue from the united states and other countries so for me it was really interesting to measure his performance to the s p 500 and on this table we can see his funds performance for the last 10 years after subtracting all the fees on average it was around 19.5 percent if we compare that to the s p 500 the average performance was around 17 so it's 2.5 percent higher than the s p 500 if you think that is not a lot let's use an example if we invest 10 000 for 30 years for 10 annual growth rate compounded annual growth rate we will get around 170 000 in 30 years but instead if we use compounded annual growth rate of 12.5 percent we will get two times more in 30 years we will get 340 thousand dollars in 30 years so we get two times more if we add only 2.5 percent of company of compounded annual growth rate most fund managers underperformed the s p 500 and terry smith was able to beat the s p 500 for more than 10 years so it is extremely interesting to see what kind of metrics what kind of ratios when he chooses businesses to invest in and on this table you can see the main ratios terry smith uses when he analyze companies so this from his annual letter to shareholders the first ratio is returned on capital employed there are several ways to calculate it and according to the book written by terry smith he uses operating cash flow divided by equity plus net debt so here is the formula so if we return to his motto find great companies don't overpay and do nothing find great companies is based on these ratios and return on capital employed is the most important metrics of all so this metric tells us what kind of capital is needed to get one dollar in profits charlie munger famously said that if we invest in business that has six percent return on capital employed it is very likely that we get six percent compounded annual growth rate so this ratio is extremely good predictor of the future price performance as you can see from this table his companies on average have much better return on capital employed than s p 500 or the futsy 100 next comes the three profitability measures the first one is the gross margin it is the revenue minus cost of gold sold as a result you get the gross margin companies that have high gross margin will do much better in a high inflation environment that companies that have lower gross margins i have made a separate video on this topic i will link to it in the end and again companies that terry smith invests in has much higher gross margins than the s p 500 or the ftse 100 then comes the operating profit margins if we subtract sales general and administrative expenses we get the operating profit margins again this margin is much higher than the s p 500 or the ftse 100 cash conversion how company can effectively convert its profit into cash this is in line with the s p 500 and lastly comes the interest cover times what is the debt level of the company can it repay its interest expenses according to terry smith the most important measure is the first one if we look at this table we can see all industries by their return on invested capital on the left we can see the companies that have higher return invested capital and on the right we can see with low return invested capital and this ratio rarely changes over time so the left side of the chart is the industries that terry smith invests in so it's a very interesting topic on its own okay if the first point was find great companies the second point is do not overpay and tara smith uses free cash flow yield as a valuation metric he doesn't use price to earnings because price to earnings can be manipulated so he uses free cash flow yield which means that he takes free cash flow divided by market cap and if we compare the average free cash flow yield from for his companies to the s p 500 we can see that he has a little bit lower for cash flow yield so this means that his companies are a little bit more expensive than the average company on the s p 500 but if we adjust for quality for growth they are not so expensive so this is the main point you get much more value for the high quality company over time than from the average company as warren buffett famously said it is better to pay average price for the great company than great price for the average company not only that but his companies pay large dividend he invests in blue chip type of companies that have predictable earnings there are even called bond proxies as a result these type of companies are more protected during the crash so they have more upside and more protected downside okay now let's look at his portfoli he has other positions but there are around or less than half a percent so these 20 are his largest positions and in the last two quarters he had three significant additions microsoft google and amazon according to his 13f filings he has added google and microsoft in the fourth quarter of 2021 and he added amazon in the third quarter of 2021.
google microsoft and amazon have high return invested capital great profitability measures and have low debt and if we look at the free cash flow yield of google we can see that during the fourth quarter it was on the high end so knowing his investment style we can see the logic behind his purchases also i have made a video on google here's the video here is the video about profit margins
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