80% Chance of December Fed Rate Cut? Ed Yardeni Breaks Down The Market Shift | Business News

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CME FedWatch 기준 12월 금리 인하 확률이 약 80%로 상승, 연준 인사들의 비둘기파 발언이 이어짐. 케빈 해싯 차기 연준의장 유력설과 연준 독립성 논의 언급. 소매판매·PPI는 해석이 엇갈리나 소비 디플레이터 2.3% 수준으로 인하 가능성 유지. 기술주 조정은 종목별 차별화 국면이며 AI 경쟁으로 구글은 강세, 엔비디아는 약세. 향후 방향에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 없음.

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01. He's the dini Research. Yad. Is it now certain that there will be a December rate cut? Now I think it's become more certain. If you look at the uh probability according to the CME Fed watch model, it suggests that the likelihood is something around 80%. Last time I looked, these things can change pretty quickly.

02. Uh but a couple of days ago, it was actually actually under 50%. So I think uh the market has concluded that uh a few Fed officials here recently have turned quite dovish. On Friday we had uh the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York uh suggest that a rate cut could very well happen in December and then two Fed officials today and yesterday I should say reiterated all that.

03. And so, yeah, I think it uh looks as though we're going to get a 25 basis point rate cut. And the market obviously rebounded from the Thursday sell-off. And uh not just that, Ed, uh the market is also wondering who the new Fed chief is going to be. And it seems like it's going to be a December announcement.

04. Yeah, it seems so. I mean, there's a lot of rumors floating about that it's going to be uh Kevin Hasset and that uh he would be a very plausible choice to be the next Fed chair. I think the market would just like to have no know who's who the players are looking into next year. But all in all, it's uh in in an ironic way, the Feds become more independent because each of the participants on the Federal Open Market Committee seems to be more independent of the Fed chairman.

05. So even if uh the president uh Trump gets somebody that uh that he appoints and is accepted by the Senate uh who's agrees with him that interest rates should be cut. Uh we can still have a lot of dissension in in the committee. But right now it looks like the momentum is moving towards a rate cut now and then they'll reassess it again in January.

06. Right. Hi morning. um also want to get your sense on some of the US macros that we've seen uh last evening in terms of their retail sales which seem to be slightly under pressure and also their wholesale inflation is not you know looking very rosy it's not too concerning but not too looking very rosy either what is your take on some of these macros as we look at some um other macros like GDP and core PC numbers today

07. yeah well you know uh when uh when economists and policy makers look at economic data they tend to biased by their their their own perceptions of what the economy is doing. Uh and so the the interesting thing about the data recently is you could almost tell whatever story you want to tell. I mean retail sales were weak in uh September, but they were revised up the month before.

08. The PPI was in line with expectation. It wasn't it wasn't really all that hot. uh uh but it's it still suggests uh along with this the CPI that the consumption deflator which is what the Fed watches suggests it's going to be up maybe 2.3 and that would still be allow the Fed to go ahead with the rate cut and what about the entire uh you know tech cool off piece because what we saw about a fortnight ago up until last week was also smacking of a risk off I mean not just for uh the Fab 7 or the MAG 7, but also what was happening in other asset classes like a Bitcoin.

09. Do you think we're out of the woods when it comes to the techies off? Well, I think the the market's becoming uh more uh discriminating about uh which stocks you want to be in. It's it may no longer be that you want to be in all of the seven magnificent seven. Uh right now, at least the past day or so, it looks as though Google suddenly is the hot stock among the Magnificent 7 and Nvidia has been not so hot.

10. Uh I think what we're learning is that this uh AI race is going to be very very competitive. It's going to uh the the whoever is running ahead of the race could could fall behind and somebody else could race ahead. So, it could be a very volatile trade here until things sort themselves out. Maybe they never will sort themselves out.

11. Maybe a AI technology is uh so state-of-the-art and so fast in terms of innovations uh that it's going to make it hard to figure out who the winners are. But right now, it certainly looks like anybody that's associated with Google uh whereas somebody companies associated with Nvidia don't look so hot. Yeah, seems to be the case. Bed, thank you so much for joining in today.