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if you're going to bet the shop you you better have a better indicator than value gamestop is a good place to start and that is uh obviously a company of very little value that was oddly picked up by aggressive individuals of with recent experience shall we say little experience and and push through the roof and in the process caught some short sellers in an embarrassing position and forced them to cover which of course is always fun for the reader and painful for the hedge fund perhaps bitcoin and hertz was a famous one from last year where a bankrupt company suddenly multiplied by five or ten times um with a guaranteed value of nil tesla as an enterprise has consistently done the impossible and no doubt will continue to do so but if you're a financial analyst you you can push the numbers involved to justify today's price and it is of course quite remarkable and if you're a believer in market efficiency you have a little problem here because while the company's sales have gone up um between 20 and 25 the stock price has gone up 700 percent or it's multiplied by eight times so which one was sufficient was it efficient a year ago before covered or is it deficient today but you can't have both so one of those two numbers was gloriously inefficient we'd be better off with a fed that had the simple instructions to try and maintain a steady increase in the money supply in relationship to the gdp period and all its fancy obligations are misplaced misdesigned and i have a simple experiment which i love it shows debt to gdp ratio in the u.s climbing back from post-world war ii slowly rising across the page imperceptibly until you reach greenspan there is simply no proof that debt increases growth there is a convention that it does predicting the future is a beast we know that and uh we're kind of limited as historians to to the history that we have and and we've been favored by a few wonderful demonstrations of crazy invested behavior but amongst the serious bubbles japan is far and away in a class of its own the apparent old wives tale that the land under the empress palace was worth more than the entire state of california we spent two days looking at it and it was true japanese land the biggest bubble in history japanese stock market's the biggest equity bubble in history followed by 20 and and 2021 in my opinion so we've had a little set of these and they all have one thing in common they are all characterized by accelerating price above the average of the bull market and they are all characterized by increasing craziness and by investing as i say going on to the front page going into the cocktail party intruding in the lunchtime uh television show and we have checked off every one of them now if this wants to break break out and make a new branch of history it can do that it nothing is ever certain this thing could go on for years and years and and bitcoin could become like a rembrandt masterpiece worth exactly what somebody wants to pay for but if history means to repeat itself as a general principle i've always made a fuss that each bubble is different what you're looking for is just the spirit of the exercise is it crazy is it accelerating and when it gets into that mode mode that we have been in for a few weeks it has always lasted no more than a few months there's a two levels of response the the metal level is you don't think a bubble peak occurs with a background of pessimism it doesn't it it occurs when you when you have a perpetual bull story that something is a new high plateau in 1929.
that alan greenspan's 2000 market that the internet is going to drive away the dark clouds of ignorance forever and we will have forever higher productivity he argued he got almost nothing right in my opinion every bull market has a permanent story lovely profit margins abnormally high in 1929 in 2000 in in every one of them in japan will last forever because the conditions that got them there will last forever that's well well put thank you that's completely my view um but to back up a second to use an asset class that is the most overpriced it has ever been where 20 of sovereign bonds have a negative real return and they guarantee to take some of your money over the 10 or 30 years that you give them your money it's pretty bizarre and it's ex absolutely without historical precedent to use that as the yardstick and say well u.s stocks aren't any more overpriced than the most overpriced bond market in history by a lot it's an odd way uh to determine value why not use bitcoin hey relative to bitcoin the u.s looks really cheap i buy some more if i read it it is a ludicrous idea to use a highly overpriced asset as a benchmark of any kind yes we're in a desperate situation in the us because we have an extraordinarily overpriced bond market coinciding with an extraordinarily overpriced stock market that doesn't make me feel better that makes me feel worse it should make me feel worse it means a 60 40 portfolio is is doomed to have a terrible 10-20 year return from here there are there's always one way to run a portfolio and that is to predict the future on a stop-by-stock basis and to do it slightly better than the marketplace the marketplace is often pretty good the marketplace is occasionally ludicrously wrong um the actual present value of the long term stream of dividends would justify a very steady progression of the market since 1925 when we did the data ebbing and flowing only one percent here or there the reality is that as we know is that it ebbs and flows it turns out 17 times more volatile than is justified by the clairvoyant stream of dividends so we have designed a marketplace to be more a measure of hysteria than a measure of value it's completely overwhelmed on occasions by by the psychology of crowds now in between these every 10 or 20 year speculative events the market can be pretty close to fair value can do a pretty decent job uh the paradox says that the only time that really matter in portfolio management are these deviations from fair value sometimes they're on the downside the my my favorite all-time letter was called reinvesting when terrified which we we published the day by luck the day the market hit its low in in in 2009 and and and we said you know get your act together the market's being crushed you can have double-digit returns for a long time get your program together get it in front of your your committee and and start getting getting yourself dragging yourself back into the market and of course you feel paralyzed why wouldn't you conditions are very bad and i made the point then that the market doesn't stop when it sees light at the end of the time the market actually turns when everything is really black but it's a subtle shade less black than it was the day before and the same here at the top the market doesn't doesn't turn when something really bad happens it turns on the second most optimistic day for the last 20 years but it's a little less optimistic than it was yesterday and by the middle of the following week a little less optimistic and the next month a little less optimistic again and then you begin to realize that the game you
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