저자: 서대리 · 한국인
요약 보기
엔비디아 주가가 실적 호조(매출 47.3억달러 +57%, 데이터센터 +160%)에도 부진한 이유를 분석. 데이터센터 매출 둔화 우려, 게이밍 비중 확대와 암호화폐 수요 사이클 반복 우려, 현금흐름 악화(영업CF -22%, FCF -48%)를 주요 원인으로 꼽음. 영상 말미에 엔비디아 보유 주식을 올해 중 매도하고 다른 종목(반도체 ETF 등)으로 옮길 계획을 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Assistant Manager Seo. I suspect that NVIDIA shareholders are currently facing a period of deep concern. This is likely because NVIDIA's stock price is performing relatively poorly compared to the overall market sentiment. Many feel it makes no sense to be left out in a market where NVIDIA holds the overwhelming number one position in the GPU market, which is essential for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, such as AI and autonomous driving.
This is especially true considering the "big deal" of acquiring ARM, which has further boosted expectations for the future. Of course, digital transformation has accelerated this year due to COVID-19, and NVIDIA's earnings have gained momentum, causing the stock price to rise breathlessly; therefore, the upward trend may return.
However, in a market where almost anything rises, the fact that NVIDIA isn't climbing further is inevitably frustrating for investors. Consequently, some NVIDIA shareholders have reached the limit of their patience, and an increasing number are ditching NVIDIA and shifting their investments to rising star stocks that turned around during this year's IPOs, such as Tesla, the "Big Three" Chinese EV companies that have been continuously hot lately, and Blue Tteu.
Even among those around me... Many people have been asking about the cause of NVIDIA's frustratingly stagnant stock performance. As an NVIDIA investor myself, I have taken this opportunity to summarize my own thoughts on the reasons behind the stock's rise and the outlook for future investments from a long-term perspective.
If you are concerned about NVIDIA's sluggish stock performance, please refer to this video. To understand why NVIDIA's stock price is failing to rise, we must first examine the recent quarterly earnings. Since NVIDIA's Q3 earnings were announced in mid-November, I will review the results to see if there were any causes for the stock price decline.
For reference, NVIDIA has a slightly unique accounting standard, so this Q3 period covers from August 2020 to October 2020. Also, since membership is in 2021, I would like to mention in advance that I will refer to it as Q3 2020 for the convenience of explanation in this video. Unlike the stock price correction, the company announced earnings for this Q3 with an earnings surprise.
Both revenue and IPS showed significant growth compared to both the previous year and the previous quarter, indicating strong performance in the semiconductor sector. This is because it demonstrated that it is the industry leader. Revenue reached $4.73 billion, up 57% year-over-year and 22% quarter-over-quarter, while the adjusted PS also rose to $2.91, increasing by 63% year-over-year and 33% quarter-over-quarter.
It not only achieved significant growth compared to the previous year and quarter but also exceeded market expectations. With revenue rising 7% and the adjusted PS falling 13%, the company demonstrated through results, not words, that it is one of the top three major stocks without any "four lanes" (referring to a specific strategy or strategy).
Despite showing such insane growth rates and performance, the stock fell on the day of the earnings announcement and continues to fail to rise, driving NVIDIA investors absolutely crazy. Looking at the earnings in more detail, NVIDIA's Gaming and Data Center divisions carried history once again, as always.
However, the key point this quarter is that, unlike the collapse of the past, the Gaming segment once again recorded a larger share of revenue. The Gaming segment reached $2.27 billion, growing 37% year-over-year and 37% quarter-over-quarter. NVIDIA It was stated that the company was able to achieve good results thanks to the launch of the new RTX 30 series and the continued sales structure of the Nintendo Switch.
In fact, according to an interview with NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, it may take time to open up new businesses to meet the demand for the RTX 37. As the new products are hitting the jackpot as expected and the Nintendo Switch continues to sell well, and with the cloud gaming platform GeForce 5 having doubled its subscriber count to over 5 million in just seven months, the future of NVIDIA's gaming business looks very promising.
Oh, by any chance, are there any users who have been using GeForce since its release? I would like to hear some reviews. If any of my subscribers are using GeForce 5, please let me know in the comments. Anyway, as the environment for the gaming overuse business continues to be created and the demand for GPUs themselves remains sustained, the gaming business has reclaimed the number one spot in NVIDIA's revenue share.
The data center division, which took the top spot for revenue share for the first time last quarter, saw its revenue share drop from 45.3% to... It dropped sharply to 10.2%. Beyond NVIDIA's top two competitors, the data center business was also tremendous. Although its revenue share fell back to second place, the year-over-year growth rate was insane.
This is because quarterly revenue reached $1.5 billion, growing 160% year-over-year and 8% compared to the previous quarter. As indicated by this insane growth rate, it is reported that they set a new record for quarterly data center revenue. As shown in the earnings data released by NVIDIA, market expectations were exceeded as the application of AI—including AI platforms, BellaKnox, and network solutions—spread across leading clients such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and Alibaba.
Naver from Korea also appears on this list. Furthermore, given that NVIDIA has supplied approximately 70% of the world's supercomputers with GPUs and network solutions, it appears that NVIDIA's dominance in the era of its own business will continue for the foreseeable future. For reference, Intel, which announced its earnings before NVIDIA, saw its data center revenue decline by 47% year-over-year, challenging market expectations.
Consequently, there were many concerns that NVIDIA's data center revenue would also be sluggish, but It is positive that NVIDIA achieved high growth in data center revenue, contrary to concerns. In particular, Mellanox, which is evaluated as a successful acquisition, recorded its highest quarterly revenue.
Thanks to the purchasing power of China, which recorded a year-over-year high growth of 80% in the third quarter, NVIDIA was able to maintain an upward trend in the data center sector, unlike its interior business. Indeed, a company that is destined to succeed succeeds no matter what. NVIDIA is generating such positive votes with its earnings, so why is its stock price so sluggish?
Even after announcing earnings that were a near-earnings surprise, the stock price fell from the 7.8 mark. Is it because it has already risen as much as it can and there is no longer any reason to go up? Of course, it has risen by over 140% in the past year, but in today's market where even unprofitable stocks rise by 200% as a baseline, NVIDIA's stock price must be frustratingly stagnant.
I believe there are three main reasons why NVIDIA's stock price is being sidelined in this environment, and I will explain them one by one. First, the biggest obstacle to NVIDIA's stock price is data. I suspect the concern regarding data center growth might be the issue. This is because NVIDIA's recent stock performance is being influenced more by data center results than GPUs.
It is similar to how the performance of the cloud divisions was crucial when Amazon and Microsoft's stock prices experienced explosive growth. While it may not be a 100% match, there is a certain correlation between NVIDIA's data center revenue and its stock price. Before the data center business emerged as NVIDIA's core business, GPUs were the second most important component.
However, as the industry accelerated, NVIDIA's data center output exploded. The fact that the gaming division relinquished its number one revenue share for the first time in the 9th fiscal year speaks volumes. Consequently, I believe NVIDIA's stock price naturally reacts to trends in data center revenue.
Of course, the strong sales of gaming GPUs certainly play a role, but since stock prices grow on expectations, the market reacts more strongly to data center revenue growth. Just looking at the fact that the three-year average annual revenue growth rate of 53% is overwhelming among NVIDIA's various business segments, it can be considered the most significant factor influencing NVIDIA's stock price.
Furthermore, the market There is another basis for the possibility of data centers. Specifically, regarding the earnings call, the fact that the majority of questions asked during the Q3 earnings announcement were related to data centers and Mellanox indicates that the market considers data centers to be a key factor driving Nvidia's stock price.
In any case, given this situation, Nvidia mentioned during this Q4 announcement that data center revenue would decline compared to the previous quarter. I suspect this was the direct trigger for the drop in Nvidia's stock price. In fact, since revenue from the volume pre-ordered by Huawei will drop in the Q4, it is a fact that data center revenue will decrease to some extent.
However, considering that the AR market for data centers is still expanding, I believe Nvidia's app business is still a separate matter. Just as Cryo and TSMC promoted Huawei's volume without significant impact, I do not think it will be a major issue for Nvidia because it already has demand and a "waterfall" effect.
In short, the current situation, where the stock is ambiguously not rising, is a chance to sell aggressively. Of course, this is under the assumption that the market does not collapse due to a resurgence of COVID-19 or similar factors. Nvidia has not taken significant action. I believe the second reason is the expansion of the gaming revenue share.
You might think, "What kind of nonsense is this?" but if you have invested in Nvidia stock for a long time, you will remember how the stock languished and struggled starting from 2018. At that time, a global cryptocurrency boom occurred, and the demand for GPUs skyrocketed in pursuit of being at the forefront.
However, as Bitcoin fluctuated, that demand disappeared, and as a result, Nvidia's stock price followed a long trajectory of stagnation. But this time, we are seeing signs of a similar movement. As Bitcoin hit $20,000, the market once again focused on filling the gap in the virtual market, and there is now an intention to cause a supply shortage of Nvidia's new products.
It would n't matter if Bitcoin were properly recognized as an asset rather than a bubble and reached a stable price. However, if history repeats itself with a price crash like last time—with GPU demand decreasing and MB's earnings falling—it seems we cannot rule out the possibility. In other words, there is an underlying concern in the market that the surge in GPU sales might be a temporary phenomenon.
Will this time be different, or... I think seeing a reenactment of late 2018 is a point worth watching. By the way, seeing how Bitcoin skyrocketed and plummeted the moment I decided to invest a little, I guess I am just a human indicator. Personally, I do not think the revenue growth in the gaming division is a temporary phenomenon.
First, as the gaming hobby triggered by COVID-19 spread to more people, the gaming market itself has a weak point. At the same time, as game specifications keep rising and requiring better CPUs, it seems there will be continuous demand. Well, it's not just gaming; there are countless applications for GPUs, such as AI and autonomous driving.
And I believe NVIDIA will undoubtedly be the dominant player in those fields. The third reason NVIDIA's stock price is stagnating is that its cash flow has worsened. NVIDIA is in a situation where it continuously needs large sums of money due to ceaseless R&B investments and the acquisition of ARM, yet this quarter's operating cash flow and FCF decreased by 22% and 48%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
On top of that, they also need to raise funds for the ARM acquisition; since cash is draining out, I think investors were concerned about this aspect. But come to think of it, to finance the ARM acquisition... A paid-in capital increase seems inevitable, and I suspect this will be the moment the stock price drops the most.
Anyway, setting the ARM acquisition aside due to too many variables, I believe the current deterioration in cash flow is temporary. In fact, if you look at the company's financial statements, year-over-year revenue and inventory have increased, and cash expenses have risen. Since this is likely a temporary phenomenon caused by the explosive sales of new products, I do not think we need to assume NVIDIA's financial situation is bad simply because operating cash flow has worsened.
I believe the same applies to cash flow and FCF. Basically, it appears that FCF has decreased further because investment spending has grown to record levels. They are not resting on their laurels with the title of #1 in GP5 and are continuously injecting capital. As mentioned in a previous NVIDIA video, they are also consistently spending on R&D.
Therefore, considering NVIDIA is the GPU powerhouse, I think it will be difficult for AMD to catch up to them in terms of technology. Of course, spending a lot on R&D doesn't guarantee technological superiority, but at least they won't be exhausted like Intel. That is the conclusion. Because NVIDIA has such a promising future, I believe its current stock price movement is providing opportunities to many buyers preparing for the future.
As someone who is also investing in Media, I am gradually finding it enjoyable. However, as I have mentioned in every video, it is true that I feel strangely sleepy when investing in high-tech companies like those dealing with transported materials. While I do monitor factors such as their dominant market share, whether they are consistently maintaining R&B costs, and their physical reactions, it is fundamentally difficult to determine whether the company will maintain strong competitiveness in the future.
Furthermore, I cannot place a significant weight on the "Jjolbok" character h. Even regarding NVIDIA's DPU right now, I don't have a clear sense of how it will be used in our daily lives, how it will help corporate businesses, or whether NVIDIA l will truly work in the parenting market. I believe one of the most important aspects of long-term investing is psychological stability.
One should be investing in stocks that one cannot worry about growing, so that one can maintain composure amidst volatile market conditions. However, stocks like Media, which are high-tech companies these days, keep playing hard to get with my emotions. Therefore, I plan to sell this stock within this year and move on to other stocks below that suit me...
I am currently debating whether to focus on this or fill my portfolio with semiconductor ATFs that can contribute to the growth of the semiconductor sector itself. What are your thoughts? Please leave your various opinions in the comments, including NVIDIA investment points and one other. This has been Seodae.
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