저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 조정(딥시크 충격)은 매수 기회. 엔비디아는 AI 칩 유일 공급자 수준이라 지위 불변, 2025년 나스닥 20,000 및 기술주 15% 추가 상승 전망. 소프트웨어·사이버보안 중 승자 중심 투자, 약자는 도태. 상대 출연자 Nancy Tengler(Laffer Tengler Investments)는 엔비디아·브로드컴 기존 보유 유지, 장기 AI 수요 지속 주장하되 단기 추가 매수는 안 함.
다듬은 글
joining us for more is Dan IES the global head of Technology research at wed Bush also here with us for the whole hour is Nancy tangler CEO and chief investment officer at laer Tangler Investments thank you both for being here with us right now let's talk about Dan the epicenter of all of this and you've been a notable Bull on many of these companies many of the technologies that are at the center of the Meltdown today does this worry you I mean to my in my view it's a top three buying opportunity that I've seen in the last decade for for Tech and the reason I'm saying I spend the whole weekend talking to Tech Executives cios individuals that I know that are going down the sort of AI arms race or going through use cases in no way of really 25 companies does this change their sort of plans and a lot of these could be seven eight you know even upper eight figure type budgets I just continue to view this as it's a model and a lot of the det I think still need to be vetted out in terms of 6 million do they actually have the h100s how they actually built it but this is something we're going to look back on and I think the street and the market got this way wrong in no way does it Dent our bothy that's what we've been telling clients really since the weekend these are the times you own these names Dan not all of the companies at the center of the selloff today are necessarily affected the same way chip stocks Nvidia Kelly mentioned it a half a trillion Dollar in market cap lost that's more than the size of Exon Mobile that's roughly the size of United Health Group in terms of an entire company lost in market value some are affected more than others Mega Cap Technology not as much so across the board as say Nvidia per se when this is a buying opportunity how much of a buying opportunity and how specific do you have to be well first un envidia that continues to be I think the Golden Goose in terms of what Jensen and that company are ultimately there is one chip in the world there's one GPU that's fueling Ai and and it's Nvidia and when you think about these build outs when we talk about the Enterprise the two trillion of AI CB backs next three years that doesn't change from deepsea you know we're talking about one 1,000s of ultimately the buildout that you're going to need for a lot of these Enterprise use cases you look at names like paler you look at the hyperscalers I could argue with the inferencing if you actually think costs are coming down it's actually bullish for even some of the software players names like sales for service now Oracle and others I just think this is one when you look at Nvidia I think we sit here 6 9 12 months now and look at this as a moment it was a golden buying opportunity and in no way changes our bull thesis for where this is all head analysts are a buzz as Bank of America Securities Vic Arya and experts like Dan IES continue to place Nvidia as a top pick leading up to its pivotal fourth quarter earnings call with an anticipated Showcase of nvidia's robust growth potential in their data center sales and expanding role in artificial intelligence all eyes are on this Tech Giant welcome back to invest accy I think you've outdone yourself today we're going to have to get a full shot okay at some point including the Japanese the the the sneakers yep painted in Japan I believe correct Japanese yeah exactly from an artist in Japan so we we could do the full we get to that in a minute but let's talk about why you continue to see and be the bullish stand IES that you have been for quite some time look and it speaks to rvu going into the year NASDAQ 20,000 is ultimately where I think we head tech stocks up another 15% because even though this has been led by Godfather of AI Jens and Nvidia the multiplier for every dollar spent on Nidia chip 8 to10 flowing through the rest of tech software infrastructure semis and I think Now consumer AI Revolution with what's happening in apple in my opinion it is 900 p.m.
in the AI party that goes to 4:00 a.m. and I think this Tech Market bull Market's going to continue how long does it take to get to 4:00 a.m. though I think there a two in our opinion it's a 2-year Tech bowl Market because I think the next phase is second third fourth derivatives it's about the use cases playing out of course you see what's happening with Microsoft hypers scars Google Amazon but then next it's going to be names like paler mongod DB I think what mcder is doing at service now you look at Oracle if someone told you Dell is an AI name 6 months ago they'd say there's no way look at it today and I think this is It's a 1995 moment not a 1999 moment I think numbers go up significantly going into next year and it speaks to our view where the Bears will continue to yell in their caves about valuation with their spreadsheets but I think this Tech Market continues to move higher are you been saying it's 95 for 2 years Dan how long does 1995 last so I think look and N in 995 ult and becomes in 96 97 but the difference here is that you talk about the cap back or meta 50 billion what we're saying might 100 billion as some of that cover tax back in the late '90s this is not a bubble this is not a 99 here it comes moment which is I think now it's about really a fourth Industrial Revolution it's about that multiplier now it's soft for and I think when you look at consumer that's why Apple it's going to be the Renaissance of growth that starts as Aid driven super cycle from Apple net Apple Microsoft Nvidia on the Enterprise side that's where I think it's a get out popcorn moment in our opinion for tech stocks still 15% higher and even when you're sometimes negative on names you seem to still be positive on them I think of Tesla which by the way you were right to stay positive because the stocks come back but you know on the negative side you do write uh the losers are going to be in this revolution will be the Tech players that get squeezed out of sales Cycles techn ology driven platforms and future growth opportunities because they don't have the tools Tech or software Engineers to compete so what is that mean and who is that likely to be yes you've seen some of the disasters UI path and some of these smaller players that have been squeezed out of sales Cycles what's happened across software so I think what's going to happen is across software across semis those it's not just saying AI 40 times in a conference call now to M exp now the next 69ine months it's about execution I think strong gets stronger I think a lot of the smaller players get squeezed out ultimately think that will be massive consolidation in terms of that phase for software but I think any sort of Hiccup that these companies you'll see these stocks down 203 40% which in our opinion is you focus on the themes you focus on the winners the microsofts the apples and then even go like midcap I think in cyber security and I talk about value I think software and cyber security is where I see just massive value names like croud strike zout pal Alto continue to be that as a table pounder even though you know many including New York City C driver with barish on pal out those 6 months ago it speaks to what we're seeing with this Cloud AI Revolution all right you're going to let us know when 99 2000's coming though right but right now you won't be able to do that to bullish but but the point is it's 90000 p.m.
it is not midnight and I think this thing goes to 4:00 a.m. and this is a man who knows had a party I mean look at well you know the old saying the clocks have no hands that was like as the trading day Dawns Vivic arya's enthusiastic endorsement of Nvidia has caught the attention of investors everywhere with a bold price target of $190 and his assertion of an upcoming modest beat in the earnings call The Buzz is louder than a Wall Street trading floor during earnings season arya's calculated optimism backed by nvidia's ongoing Blackwell product transition and geopolitical challenges in China offers a more nuanced narrative're longtime investors um we already have pretty decent sized positions in both um broadcom which we've owned actually for 10 years uh and also Nvidia um so the news out yesterday obviously start a lot of people um but it doesn't fundamentally change our view in the long term AI demands and applications are going to continue to drive the demand for compute power and we can get into the details of why because it sounds a little counterintuitive given what we heard yesterday all right why yeah so you know it's pretty obvious that these guys have come up with a more efficient model and because it's open source people are right now you know checking the veracity of the efficiency of the training part of it but also the inference uh part and if they've come up with something that really is more efficient terrific imagine all the new applications that will be able to Spring out of of something like that but the chip guys Nvidia in particular really took it on the nose yesterday including broadcom and the question there comes if you're um Amazon if you're Microsoft and all of a sudden you have a more efficient uh model are you going to you know take your foot off the accelerator and say okay I guess I'm done I don't need to spend all that money in the meantime Microsoft across the street is is now taking advantage of it um buying all those gpus and delivering something even better so one has to look beyond the obvious to the competitive forces between the AI providers open AI Amazon Microsoft to really figure out how much they're going to spend and there's great analogies from the past on this nvidia's share in the aid driven Market remains astounding and by 2025 their data center sales are expected to exhibit over 60% growth according to arya's projections and yet despite glimmers of competitive pressure from Asic vendors like broadcom and Marvel Technologies nvidia's grip on the market remains firm currently commanding over 80% of the sha you think that it it's game on then off 17 a decline of 17% must have been a big buying opportunity did you put more money to work in either shares of Nvidia or broadcom yesterday no we didn't you know one has to put that in context though right I mean when you we got a lot of questions from clients about this when you look at the year-over-year um performance I mean Nvidia was still up 88% something like that broadcom up over 60% um and and so you know there's there's a little bit of a pullback a little being a lot when it's a company big yeah when it's a big market cap evaporation in history in in one day exactly I mean when when you're that big you know disruptions in Risk in the future right an increase in Risk which clearly this is um will cause multiples to contract reductions in potential growth forecast will cause the stock to fall but one has to think back to history I mean imagine you're in the 1980s 1990s Intel has come out with a better CPU per bit you know computation costs went down for decades did people buy fewer Intel chips because they said oh I got all the computing power I need no they kept buying more so even as the cost per comp per compute went down the demand continued to rise and we'll see that to the question of of valuation for this stock did you think it was overvalued uh two days ago did you did you think this was a situation or did the situation change to say okay maybe there's not going to be uh such a strangle hold and and Invidia being the only company that can actually deliver on that or not because if you didn't think that that had changed somewhat I would think a 177% off would be a great buying opportunity unless you thought it was overvalued to begin with no yeah we didn't think it was overval valued uh we did recognize though that there's an awful lot of growth embedded and what yesterday taught us is that um expectations can change suddenly when a new piece of innovation comes out when new information comes out but if you're a long-term investor you know you don't move on that uh necessarily we already had a full-size position we didn't want to add to it and that also speaks to the importance of building you know client portfolios that are Diversified and and so that's what we try to do here at ACM but you know one of the things I think people should recognize now is that we're going to see a lot more information come out about this and more importantly we're going to see how how the companies using these and developing these AI models react remember Nvidia still is the only game in town right we're going to see some new chips from AMD but if you want the best most powerful compute power you still have to go to Nvidia now you have a more efficient model to run on that more impressive compute power it doesn't mean you're going to back away and say well I guess I won't use it all or I guess I won't take the most advantage of it nvidia's current market trajectory buoyed by a robust demand for Aid driven Solutions and a projected $500 billion total addressable Market by 2028 offers a compelling case for bullish optimism but what about you dear viewer what do you think of nvidia's trajectory
Comments 0