저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경제는 강하며 연준이 50bp 추가 인상해도 경제에 큰 문제는 아니라는 낙관론. 금리·경기: 연준 500bp 인상을 견딘 경제의 회복력 강조. 헤드라인 인플레는 개선 중이나 근원 인플레는 끈적함, 다만 주거(렌트) 인플레는 계속 하락 예상. 증시: 유동성이 주가를 지지해 여름 동안 쉬었다가 연말에 더 오를 수 있다고 봄. 급등(melt-up)은 우려. 연준 정책: 연준 발언을 존중해야 한다는 입장. 연준이 두 차례 내외 추가 인상할 가능성을 기본 시나리오로 보며, 인상 후 인하 시점은 경기 둔화 때문이라 증시에 부정적일 수 있다고 언급. 신흥국: 중국은 부동산 거품 붕괴와 수입 정체로 회복 기대가 꺾였고, 인도는 지정학·미국 제조업 이전 수혜로 상대적으로 매력적이라고 평가. 섹터: AI 기대로 기술주, 정부 인프라 지출·온쇼어링으로 산업재가 강세. 3월 지역은행 붕괴 후 금융주도 대형은행 스트레스테스트 통과로 회복. 리스크: 상업용 부동산 익스포저가 큰 소형은행 문제는 남아 있음. 출연자 전망: 증시 여름 횡보 후 연말 상승 가능성 제시, 기술·산업재·금융 선호, 인도 선호, 중국 비관적.
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mixed reaction okay well Ed yardini is now joining us president at yadny research and good morning you know the weakness in the U.S data is not showing up I mean the core pce perhaps is one of the many uh which kind of showed some amount to weakness softness but otherwise it's been pretty strong and steady uh what does it mean uh Ed I mean once again markets have been pricing in hikes in July by the fed this week we've got some data points lined up out of the U.S will you know so we get a July hike and then what more but the market seems completely unconcerned and you'll have to unmute yourself you'll have to unmute yourself sir we would like to hear what you have to say are we Audible nope all right okay I think we'll just fixed that Ed can you hear us okay I think we'll just uh okay I think he is with us okay I think we'll just have uh have him back in just a bit from now some uh technical uh issues coming up uh you know let's just quickly take a look at what the age yeah Ed we can hear you go on sorry you were on mute but now we can hear you okay and you can see me as well right see you and hear you okay all right I don't know what happened uh to the uh microphone but anyways no problem good to be back with you look I think investors have come around to appreciate that the economy is remarkably resilient and it's withstood a 500 basis point increase in the federal funds rate so I think investors are getting kind of uh confident that even if we're doing even if the FED does another 50 basis points uh that's uh that's not going to be a problem for the economy uh meanwhile we are seeing quite a bit of improvement in the headline inflation as you point out the core inflation is still quite sticky but quite a bit of that is rent we know the rent inflation is going to continue to come down uh meanwhile there's liquidity in the uh in the economy uh enough to keep the stock market moving higher I I hope it doesn't uh go into a melt up situation I hope that we can kind of rest of the summer and then move higher later in the year but uh I don't run the uh the the the markets uh Playbook the market has has a mind of its own clearly uh and uh morning this is Rima here how does India stand in the Emerging Market Basket investors bet on China at the beginning of the year on hopes of reopening and money moved away from India into China but that turn in the middle of uh you know sometime in February and March once investors realize that the promise of China growth reopening isn't materializing to the expectation as per as according to the expectations and money once again moved back into India and FIS have been lapping up India how does India stand in the mind of foreign investors and how does it compare with the Emerging Markets well I think you're right a lot of investors uh clearly are looking at China and India as the alternative uh ways to invest in emerging markets in terms of having very large economies uh large populations and uh very industrious people uh and uh you're absolutely correct that once China eliminated its lockdowns those widespread expectation that China would really show a very strong economic growth but I think what has been revealed is that the underlying weakness in the Chinese economy is very much related to the property Market they've had a property bubble that's burst and I don't think as much they can do to turn that around and that's been an important source of economic growth over over in China do you know that Imports in China have been flat for like over a year now wow that's a very telling indicator I think that domestic consumers just aren't bonding to the end of the pandemics with the kind of enthusiastic buying binge that we saw in other parts of the world particularly in the United States so compared to all that India looks quite good and especially in a geopolitical context but where there's increasing concerns about doing business in China Manufacturing in China because of the geopolitical concerns and as we just saw with Prime Minister Modi visiting the United States the United States is reaching out to India and I would like to partner more with India and less with China good morning Nigel on this side a couple of questions you said that we could possibly get a couple of more rate hikes what are you factoring in how many more hikes in this year and by when do we get the first signs of a cut from the FED because the equity markets they want that some said at the end of 2023 but it's more likely now in 2024 going by the commentary that we're getting out from the Fed look I think we have to be flexible and uh open-minded minded here on what's fed policy is uh going to do and we do have to listen to the FED there's an old adage don't fight the fed and if fed officials are telling us that they believe that inflation is still too high relative to their two percent inflation Target and that in that the FED funds rate isn't restrictive enough to bring inflation down to two percent uh and that they will and believe that they need to do another 50 basis points between now and urine or even the next two meetings then we have to take that face value as the most likely scenario in my opinion the economy's uh resilience doesn't uh suggest that inflation can come down on its own I think a lot of the inflation was related to the shock and the aftershocks of the of the pandemic as the pandemic is debating I think we've seen inflation come down dramatically in Goods markets so that's in services that we are seeing persistence but I think that will change as well but I have to factor in that they're going to do another 50 basis points because they're quite adamant about it um maybe maybe I mean actually on the flip side once they start to cut maybe the market will not like that right because the cut will finally come when the economy starts to weaken I mean it's uh this is happy I mean I always precious points and the market is doing just absolutely fine red well you know there's a lot of moving Parts here uh we know that uh there's a lot of enthusiasm about artificial intelligence so that's been a big source of strength for the technology sector we also have a tremendous amount of spending going on by the government in infrastructure spending and and incentives for onshoring to bring manufacturing back to the United States so Industrials have done extremely well and now we're finding out that the financials are doing well because after they got uh hit quite hard back in March I think there's a growing sense that we're not going to have an economy-wide banking crisis and as you know last week the FED uh reported its latest stress test of the banks and the banks passed the stress test however it was 20 the 23 largest banks it wasn't the 4 000 small banks that still have a lot of exposure to the commercial commercial real estate market um but at least the 23 large big Banks passed the stressed in light of what we had to face in February and March with a collapse of three regional Banks thank you very much for joining in need to get into a very short break there are lots of individual stocks
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