원문 보기
ah buckle up um Tony I've been doing this as some kind of Chief investment officer since 1978 and this is about the wildest cocktail I've ever seen in terms of um trying to figure out a road map um just to frame things a little the recession we had last year or whatever you want to call it the economic downturn was 5X um the average recession since World War II but it did it in 25 of the time um more bizarrely during year while 11 million people um more were unemployed we had the largest increase in personal income in 20 years during an economic downturn this occurred and of course as you know that's because of the massive policy response we got the cares act added trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus uh how big was it in three months we increase the deficit more than if you took the last five recessions combined and those were big ones that was 73.75 the 82 recession the early 90s the.com bus and then of course the great financial crisis if you added the increase in the in the deficit and all those five periods and combine them we increased the deficit in the U.S more in three months in 2020 than we did in that cumin of total the FED in six weeks bought more treasuries than they did in 10 years under Bernanke and Yellen when people like me were screaming about how excessive um QE was during that period corporate borrowing which almost always goes down in a recession as corporations they literally liquefy and had already gone from 6 trillion to 10 trillion because of free money going into the period um actually went up um 400 400 billion dollars um just put that in perspective it went down 500 billion during the great financial crisis so we had this massive increase in liquidity this mass increases stimulus but um it's so this is this is sort of the background and obviously all this stimulus has flowed into financial markets in the Commodities and the financial interests so it's um it's sort of a bizarre background the other thing I would say I'm excited that we have an Asian audience today because the juxtaposition of the various policy response is somewhat breathtaking um if one of the best ways to encapsulate what I just talked about is since 2018 M2 in the U.S has grown 25 percent more than nominal GDP so we've had a 25 increase in liquidity in China M2 to nominal GDP is where it was three years ago so they haven't borrowed anything from their future we've had a massive liquidity input and frankly very low investment it's primarily been transfer payments and fed stimulus and we've done a horrific job with the virus the Chinese basically Asia in general the Chinese the Taiwanese Hong Kong they pretty much defeated the virus they haven't borrowed from their future so the background could not be more different but it also could not be more exciting if you're a macro investor because on top of all this um there's the other big force in the equation which is vaccines and it's possible in fact probable that all this stimulus is still going to be in place and frankly increasing just when we unleash the biggest increase in penalt demand globally we've had maybe since the 1920s which could make the world look extremely different than it looks today so let's jump off that one of the Hallmarks of your career has been a willingness to take risk in many different ways in many different markets and so as you look at all of the arrows that are in your quiver right now across kind of all the major asset classes and if I ask you to pick one asset that you think should offer the best opportunity set for call it the next year or so what would your pick be that's not really the way I play the game Tony um I'd like to use more than one Arrow if it's appropriate I would say my overriding theme is inflation relative to what the policy makers think um but because of the policy maker response which could be very varied based on the vaccine and how they respond to various metrics I found it's better to have a matrix so basically to play potential inflation um I have a short treasury position primarily at the long end because the FED could drive me crazy and not really let that come to fruition I also have a large position in commodities the longer the FED tries and keep rates suppressed so they'll have stimulants in the pipeline the more I win on my Commodities the quicker they respond the quicker I might have a problem with my Commodities and then because of the juxtaposition of our sub policy response versus age and I have a very very short dollar position so let's turn to the stock market for a moment and specifically to the tech space you've been all over the mega theme as it relates to the cloud for a long time now um but as we just heard some of the macro the big macro Dynamics in the game are are changing and perhaps in a way that's probably less supportive for secular growth companies than it may have been prior to all this and so how do you currently look at the runway for Tech be it Mega cap Tech or some of those Cloud names or even some of the smaller names that have been very high velocity in the recent period it's a tough question because there's no question if we get say four to five percent inflation in the U.S a couple years out um and Bon yields right precipitously that's very negative historically for growth stocks relative to other stocks um on the other hand I think the comparisons with 2000 are ridiculous and the reason I think they're ridiculous is we had a double whammy back then we not only had the Raging Mania over evaluation but the earnings were about to end because those companies that were growing rapidly then were all about building the internet itself and the internet and I for one didn't see this coming at the time the internet had already built been built so imagine companies selling railroad ties just as a Union Pacific had crossed the United States and it was done um I do think the combination of valuation uh and challenge Bond markets could certainly make growth stocks in a very very challenged environment the next five years certainly relative to what they've been which is not not saying a lot having said that you mentioned the cloud I'd say we're in the third or fourth inning we jumped in covid from the first inning to the third or fourth but we're not in the ninth inning and if anything company after company I talked to is actually speeding up their transition because they're going to competitively die if they stay behind within digital transformation and you take a company like Amazon it's inconceivable to me that all these people that never used um the internet before and the whole movie AWS I don't see them going back and a lot of their competitors despite the fact that they're up 100 in the last two days in a short squeeze across the board a lot of their competitors will be extremely wounded what they were pre-covered so the other thing I would say is within within Tech itself Fang or let's just talk about say Amazon Microsoft that brand they've actually been big under performers the last two or three months it's like the market has rotated into 40 times sales tech companies or into radioactive reopening socks and if you actually look at the Amazons and the Microsoft's the Googles of the world they're not overvalued they're GARP names and they're currently out of favor and If the Fed continues to push the envelope in terms of friendliness I'm not really too worried about those stocks if anything I would think they could keep going somewhat given that it's been a very hot start to the year in local Equity markets could we just maybe dig a little bit deeper on your current investing views on on the region does any any Market or any asset class there really stick out to you Japan China Korea Etc I own them all and I don't know what they're going to do over the next week or two you're right they've had a they've had a very good start to the year but when I look at how much the United States broad from their future and when I look at what Asia and how they've handled it I just think they're the big big winner coming out of covid and even within specific areas like Tech um Intel's thrown in the town so Asia owns Foundry um they own memory they're ahead in robotics I just think um the next the next five years or so Asia looks a lot better to me than the United States because at some point um we got to pay back in terms of productivity in terms of higher rates in terms of a lower dollar for all these transfer payments we've made the last nine months and it looks like we're going to continue to make so I'm uh I'm quite constructive on the number of names in Taiwan and Korea and China I guess like the rest of the world we don't see um in in Singapore but I just think long term I don't know about the next two months uh I'm I'm unfortunately right with the consensus I think Asian is gonna Asia's gonna be an outperformer their Equity Market versus the US and especially their currency Market um again I mentioned it but China's done virtually no QE the last two years well our QE to GDP has been like 14 other their real yields are higher than ours and continue to run a current account Surplus I'm sure you're selling the financial times this morning that net investment into China actually passed the US for the first time ever this year and I just think it's the beginning not the end of a trend I'd like to spend a minute on your process for money management and you had referenced this earlier but you've remarked me before you can't make big money without confronting big swings and real Market volatility and yet one of the Hallmarks of your career is you just you just don't lose money not that you don't have drawdowns of course you do but I think you've been running Duquesne since 1981 and I believe you've you've never recorded a down year and so I just want to ask a little bit about your portfolio construction process and then your risk management around that is there a specific process or given set of principles you tend to follow at all times first of all the no down years is true but a lot of it is luck um I've been deep in the hole three or four years and in every case something came along and it was just a coincidence of the calendar December 31st December 31st I happen to be out had you measured from another part of the Year say May to May um I would have had some down years but I would say Tony and you're right I referenced it earlier um the fact that I can travel around five or six asset classes does a couple of things number one um it can point you in the right direction and if you really believe something you can make big big gains there number two is a macro investor currencies and bonds trade 24 hours a day and they're very liquid and you can change your mind which I've had to do a lot in my career because I've been wrong a lot of my career number three this is more subtle but it also gives you discipline not to be playing around in an area that is dangerous if you're an equity only investor it's your job to be in equities if you have the latitude to say I'm just not going to play it's too complicated you don't plan them so I think in many cases credit would be a perfect example I've never lost money big in credit because the only time our bad credit is every eight years there's a complete debacle in the credit Market and we go in and we buy a bunch of credit well if I was a credit investor I would have had three or four down 30 years so that's uh the other thing I would say and this is totally counterintuitive I'm very much of the philosophy which also creates its own discipline put all your eggs in one basket and watch the basket very carefully you know I have found time and time again that every investor has three or four big Winners a year and usually you know what they are and where you get in trouble is something you're not entirely focused on well when you put 50 60 70 of your assets or more in one asset class trust me you're focused and you're more risk-averse than something where you might have five or six in and you can have a blow up um I've never used VAR we had to use it at Soros to get banking lines from great companies like Goldman Sachs but basically very unsophisticated I watch my p l every day and it starts acting in a strange manner relative to what I would expect out of a matrix I described one earlier for today you know my antenna go up and I've always used my p l because I found all those risk models they're great until complete chaos happens and then all the correlations break down and they can suck you into a false security if you're watching your p l and your antenna that are up and you've been doing it for 30 or 40 years I found it a much better warning system than some of these uh some of these mathematical models out there they're useful they're just not useful when you really really need something like that Bitcoin is this the mother of all asset bubbles or perhaps something more genuine and more lasting maybe both um I think it wouldn't be doing what it was doing if we didn't have the Central Bank Behavior we have um I was skeptical three or four years ago when it came out why would anybody buy this thing but they've done this unbelievable marketing job it's been around 13 years and particularly younger Millennials look at it the way I've always looked at Gold I do doubt I have my doubts whether anything um whether Bitcoin itself will be anything other than a store of value because it's got all sorts of problems as a currency number one it uses up a lot of energy number two it's volatile um there's other technical problems with it I don't really understand um but you know right now it's
Comments 0