저자: TheCreativeInvestor채널진행자 · 외국인
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CPI 발표 전 파월 발언(인플레 진전)과 금리 인하 기대, 공매도 많은 소형주·금리민감주 숏스퀴즈 가능성을 강조. 다만 소비 둔화 신호와 월마트 실적이 경기 방향의 관건이라고 봄. 전반적으로 CPI가 완만하면 주식에 긍정적이라는 시나리오 제시.
다듬은 글
judging off of what we seen markets do today with the NASDAQ up 0.64% the Russell up a lot more than that you could be setting up for a really Market wide short squeeze if tomorrow's data comes in how it seems like it will what I mean by that is Jerome Powell today sounded pretty dovish he sounded like he already knows CPI is going to come in lower than what the markets are currently expecting this has the potential to one move markets big tomorrow but odds are move your small caps your interest rate sensitive stocks that are heavily shorted in fact over the past couple of days you've already started to see the start of that with yes gme AMC going higher but also other stocks that are not deemed in the meme stock category like Tes like Beyond me like paler like fubo and Sofi these other stocks that are heavily short or heavily sold short they've also started to Rally I would argue maybe because markets are trying to get ahead of a good CPI report we'll talk about all of this here in this video my expectations and much more hit the like button and subscribe to the channel if you have not done so already on strats Tom Lee said investors should buy stocks ahead of this week's release of the April CPI report he said the setup appears favorable for higher stock prices as disinflation makes progress an inline CPI report or better would increase the chances of three interest rate Cuts this year that is my expectation as well now I think we could get a lot more than three Cuts if the economy does weaken but as long as we do see this disinflation narrative continue to be intact yes you had a hot CPI report in January February March if April comes in light then maybe people are going to say hey the first three months of the year that's seasonal we should expect that now throughout the rest of 20124 the disinflation is here and it's here to stay that would be insanely positive for markets Tom Lee said in a recent note that you should buy in May because the trade is still in full force after the P 500 jump nearly 4% so far this month Lee expects those gains to continue with the upcoming April CPI report likely to likely to show disinflation progress which would push stocks higher as investors shift to pricing in more than two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year we think an inline April CPI will cause the number of fed cuts to rise from 1.8 cuts by the year end of 2024 towards 2.5 Cuts or more the rationale in our view is that this April CPI will highlight the possibility that auto insurance a disappropriate impact on CPI is a betting Tom Lee says bottom line we're still buying may I actually think if you get a good number tomorrow you could see something that looks more like a short squeeze for the broader Market specifically your interest rate sensitive names small caps and overall heavily shorted stocks let's be honest for the hedge funds and institutions that are looking to hedge their portfolio they've been hedging in this in these interest rate sensitive stocks and that's been well so far um in 2024 I mean that trade has done well if that starts to be questioned that could be where you see a lot of the buying coming tomorrow today you had 10-year treasury yields that fell over two basis points down to 4.45 s% which you're coming off of your high that you set recently at about 4.70% so you have seen quite a drop here in 10year treasury yields in the last couple of weeks and this is again fueling a lot of that risk on behavior that we are seeing in the markets New Edge wealth on X wrote this markets reacted initially negative to PPI but when details like auto insurance medical care and airfare showed a mild reading yields were unable to break the range to that means to the upside right yields fell on your 10year treasury as I just showed the Silver Linings and services have Traders on alert that CPI could be a downside surprise now current expectations for CPI on your core month over month are expected around 0.3% last month you came in at 0.4% so if you come in on the low side of 0.3% that's going to be great and what I mean by that there's a low side and a high side because we just get the round number and that's what alos mostly react to but hear me out if you come in at 0.25% it's still going to show up as 0.3% that's on the low side that's close that's that's you know in the middle basically of 0.2 and 0.3 if you come in at 0.34 that's on the high side of 0.3 that would be bad right and if you come in at 0.3 5 or higher you're going to round up to 0.4 and that would be really bad so if you come in around 0.25 0.26 that's going to look like 0.3% when you're looking at the news wire or you're looking at trading economics or just the headline numbers themselves but under the surface that's actually going to be some good news now if we come in at a high 0 let's say 0.24 you're going to get rounded down to 0.2 and that's going to look like on here just outright coming in better than expected which that would obviously be great news now PPI this morning came in at 0.5% for your core and for your headline and wall Street's kind of chalking that up to certain components within PPI that don't necessarily translate into CPI or pce but this is also getting people excited last month PPI on on the headline was 0.2% it was revised to NE 0.1% same is true for your core PPI month over month it was 0.2% last month and we and was revised to negative 0.1% so the deflationary just I mean not even dis disinflationary but deflationary pressures were relevant last month with PPS so that was also a pretty strong sign that maybe we will start to see some disinflation here in the next coming months furthermore adding to that was Jerome Powell today Jerome Powell gave a speech at about 10:00 in the morning this morning Eastern Standard Time fed Powell said it looks like it will take longer to get inflation confidence but then he said we've made real progress on inflation suggesting that maybe that inflation number number tomorrow is going to come in around expectations if not lower but definitely not suggesting a Miss on CPI keep in mind Jerome Powell has been very open and public about this they get the data before the markets do so Jerome pow giving a speech today saying what he said well he probably I mean I I we we can't know definitively but it's a safe assumption that he most likely already knows what the CPI numbers are going to be tomorrow jome Powell said the FED is confident that they will get to 2% inflation he said non-housing Services inflation is the one that may take the longest Powell says that it's non-controversial to say us fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path jome Powell also acknowledges that Lags from current rents to CPI is longer than they thought he goes on to say the housing inflation has been a bit of a puzzle and they're really not sure why the current market rents are being factored or not being factored into CPI why we're still getting such a high housing number in your inflation reports when in all reality I mean there's not a lot of rent inflation out there today but this is one of the quotes that probably sent the markets higher especially the small caps and subsequently sent 10-year treasury yields even lower fed Powell says I don't think it's likely that the next move would be a rate hike it's more likely that we would hold the policy rate where it is Jerome Powell also says restrictive policy may take longer than expected to do its work and bring inflation down Jerome Powell says I wouldn't call the PPI reading hot but sort of mixed so these are some of the headlines the markets reacted to and took them as favorable from Powell again most notably Jerome Powell's not even talking about needing to raise rates again all he's saying is we need to be patient and let policy work and odds are the next move is a cut from here not a rate hike Fitch ratings just said today decelerating income growth will dampen us consumer spending in the second half of 2024 Morgan Stanley in a note today said recent credit card delinquency data is quote encouraging year-over-year growth in car delinquencies slowed across the broader group in q1 a clear indication that we are past Peak deterioration we expect growth to continue slowing on a year-by-year basis eventually Contracting around year end I think that's a pretty strong statement to make based on q1 credit card delinquency data past Peak deterioration I wouldn't say that makes any sense at all based on the data that we have seen for durable goods for GDP for metrics of consumer spending you haven't even started to really see the deterioration so I don't think it's fair to say you're past the peak of the pain if you will for the consumer people are running out of money and they're not spending as much as they once were that's obvious companies are telling us that um be careful long story short what you hear from Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs or some of your overly bullish Banks remember they're trying to sell you things investment products and savings accounts and things of that nature and they do have notoriously terrible track records for being correct on the economy now coming out tomorrow morning at the same time you get CPI is also retail sales month over month now this one's going to be an important one for the state of the economy as well and the overall consumer now last month you came in at 0.7% there's going to be another revision here so that can be important but the forecast is 0.3% month over month if this number comes in bad let's say it comes in low and inflation comes in low that's probably the best possible outcome for stocks now imagine a scenario where in inflation Falls comes in lower than expected but retail sales is like -2 or 3% uh something really really bad then obviously that's going to be seen as probably bad news that's really going to jump the odds of a cut coming this summer but in the grand scope of things if the economy does start to weaken and it does look like we're going into recession well that's not going to be good current expectations for the next fed meeting are that the FED is not going to do anything 91.3% chance of a continued pause 8.7% chance of a rate cut if you get really bad data data that starts to come out between now and June 12th then it's possible you could get a cut but I think the data would have to be pretty bad and the inflation data would have to be pretty good now I'm expecting the first cut July 31st markets currently are not so I think this could lead to some upside in stocks if we start to expect a rate cut because inflation Falls not because the economy weakens remember I if if we start to expect more Cuts because the economy is weakening that's not good and that will never be good for stocks if inflation Falls great that's awesome as long as the economy holds up the July 31st fed meeting has a 29.2% odds of a cut so that is not consensus view about onethird of um um Traders on the this fed fund Futures Contract for July 31st are expecting a cut 68.6% of investors are expecting no action from the FED at all you are pricing in your first cut coming September 18th 2024 49.7% odds of that and 32.9% um odds of a continued pause there is 16.2% odds of two rate cuts by September and then by December You're Expecting the second rate cut at 36.2% odds 31.9% odds of just one cut and 10.2% chance of no cuts at all in 2024 whereas there is a 17.9% chance of three rate Cuts this year and a 3.6% chance of four rate Cuts still this year so I do think tomorrow's CPI numbers are going to be massively important for markets because typically wall Street likes to say 3 months makes a trend so you've seen January February March CPI numbers inflation readings coming in hotter than expected you're kind of starting a trend of inflation um resurfacing again if April also comes in hot then that's going to further validate that inflation is probably here to stay if inflation does come in lower than expected you're going to probably need two more inflation reports before the FED felt confident uh about cutting rates and that's why the markets are expecting September if the economy does weaken um then obviously that could push along getting rate Cuts coming sooner but if inflation does indeed fall tomorrow I would expect that would be very positive for stocks as long as retail sales do not come in at a terrible number fear and greed index over on CNN today is at 53 which is considered neutral almost in greed territory yesterday you were at 49 which was also neutral so you're up four points today alone you have Market momentum that is in greed territory stock price strength that is in extreme fear territory stock price breath is neutral put and call options is Extreme greed today so people feeling pretty dang bullish heading into CPI numbers coming tomorrow morning Market volatility is neutral and Safe Haven demand is in fear uh junk bond demand is also sitting at neutral will have some earnings today in after hours with new bank um that's one of the banks backed by Warren Buffett Brazilian bank I believe next tracker on track Health um dragonfly DHT canoe Rumble tasa um none of these companies are going to be important for the broader markets though tomorrow morning you have Dole that could be interesting for food price in inflation but really not much of anything tomorrow morning either tomorrow and after hours you have Cisco uh Copa Airlines couple other smaller companies but nothing too major there also Thursday pre-market that's actually your big day you have Walmart that reports earnings buou jd.com John Deere nice light light speed under arour ads Canadia Goose all kinds of different companies that report Thursday premarket now Walmart obviously your big one Walmart has by far the best color into how the consumer is spending their money if they're cutting back if they're um you know still spending a lot based on what I can tell based on what you've heard from McDonald's and Target and Dollar General and and all of these other um companies that are heavily dependent on how the consumer is doing directly they've all been warning about a Slowdown in the consumer that the consumer is pinching pennies a lot of them have said if Walmart confirms that I think that is a Smoking Gun for the economy and for the consumer if Walmart comes out and says people are just doing fine like they're still spending money they're not going crazy but they're not really cutting back that's great news for markets that is fantastic news for markets if Walmart comes out and gives a warning about the consumer that the consumer is slowing down that Walmart's profits may also slow down as well that could be like another you know August 14th of ' 07 moment where Walmart comes out and really warns markets and warns about a Slowdown in the consumer and subsequent recession so I am personally paying very close to Walmart earnings Thursday premarket I think a lot of other people are as well and that it could could be one of those I guess underlooked Catalyst for this week that you need to be prepared for coming on Thursday TLT is up a half of 1% % today oil is down 1.43% today and the dollar is down about 0.2% today all of this suggest that maybe a weaker than expected inflation number is coming tomorrow so with all of this said
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