저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오는 미국 국가부채(약 34조 달러)가 수요(매입자) 부족과 높은 이자비용으로 위기 국면에 진입하고 있다고 경고한다. 공급·수요 불균형으로 국채 금리가 상승하고, 이자비용이 예산의 상당 부분을 잠식하는 부채 악순환 위험을 제시한다. 정치적 양극화도 해결을 어렵게 하는 요인으로 꼽는다. 다만 과거 2차 대전 이후처럼 경제성장으로 부채비율(GDP 대비)을 낮출 수 있다는 가능성도 언급한다. 영상 해설자는 달리오의 이력을 근거로 경고를 신뢰할 만하다고 본다.
다듬은 글
are we in a debt crisis or are we headed for one um we are at the in my opinion we are at the beginning of a billionaire investor Ray Doo is warning about a $34 trillion debt fueled tsunami that is about to strike the US economy with each passing second the storm is getting larger and larger making it even more painful when it finally does hit the fall out of which will likely be felt for Generations listen to Doo explain are we in a debt crisis or are we headed for one um we are at in my opinion we are at the beginning of a very classic late cycle late big cycle debt crisis when the supply demand Gap when you're producing too too much debt and you have also a shortage of buyers what's happening now is we have to sell all this uh debt is we then have do have enough buyers there were changes now in terms of the quantities in the world that are being held by um large investors around the world that have lost money in these treasury bonds and so on and then there are geopolitical changes which are having an effect some cases some countries are worried about sanctions and then there's this geopolitical shift so when I look at the supply demand issue is a supply demand issue for that debt there's a lot of debt it has to be bought has to have a high enough interest rate so a crisis that's you know if we continue down this path in terms of what what's likely over the next you know five and 10 years then you what you reach the point that that Balancing Act becomes very difficult how will we know and is it really a function of not having enough buyers for the federal debt is there any evidence of that so so far um we we're right at the brink of starting to find out that the amount of selling of government debt um collapsed right we didn't issue government debt um and now we're going to issue a lot of government debt and so when one looks at when we look at the buyers there appears to be a shortage a significant shortage of the buyers for that government debt but we're now at the brink of being able to see what that's app man P um picture looks like as we go over the next year and two with each parsing second the US national debt grows adding fuel to the potential debt crisis Doo mentioned in that clip however until relatively recently this hasn't mattered much but according to raid oo things are now finally starting to change and here's why for the better part of the last 100 years US government bonds have been considered by many the safest investment in the entire enre world the US economy is absolutely massive and the country is home to many of the largest companies on the planet this Dynamic provided protection in the eyes of investors the thought being that if you lent money to the US government you didn't have to worry about whether or not you were going to get paid back as the taxing authority of the world's largest economy if the US government ever ran into trouble it could simply raise taxes and use that money to pay back borrowers because of this US government bonds have been viewed by investors and the finance Community as the only truly quote unquote risk-free investment that exists this commonly accepted belief has led to US government bonds being extremely popular Investments for everyone from Individual investors to Pension funds to Banks and even other countries the supply of investor money wanting to purchase government bonds has consistently exceeded how much money the government has needed to borrow as a result result borrowing money has always been relatively cheap for the US government however that Dynamic May finally be starting to change the Ripple effects of which would be felt throughout the world let me explain the cost for the US government to borrow money is determined by the laws of supply and demand this concept can be easily explained with this graph here on this line we have the supply of money willing and able to be lent to the US government think of this as the amount of money individuals corporations and countries are willing to let the US government borrow the willingness of investors to lend money to the government can change due to everything from the health of the economy to geopolitical issues and everything in between this line here represents demand from the US government to borrow money think of this as the amount of money the government needs to borrow to pay its obligations the point at which our two lines cross represent the cost for the US government government to borrow money just like other loans that is expressed in an interest rate so the higher the interest rate the more expensive it is to borrow money as the borrower will be paying more each year in interest on the other hand the lower the interest rate but cheaper it is to borrow money as the borrower will be paying less in interest on that loan what I'm about to say gets to the core of raay Elio's warning and it is super important the US national debt is currently at a whopping 34 trillion and is getting larger by the day this is up from $22 trillion in 2019 and from roughly $5 trillion in national debt back in the year 2000 as Doo explained the US is heading towards a Tipping Point the national debt has grown so large that there is a real possibility that there is more government debt outstanding than money available from investors to buy it if this turns out to be true the consequences will likely be dire here here's how going back to our supply and demand graph let's shift our demand line up and see what happens moving our demand line up represents the US government needing more money to cover its notice how now the two lines cross at a higher interest rate if Government debt grows while the supply of money available from investors Remains the Same the US government will be forced to pay a higher interest rate to borrow money let's push our demand line even further up as you can see the two lines cross now at an even higher interest rate higher borrowing costs for the US government would be extremely painful for the country and its citizens given the massive amount of national debt the country has Here's a thought experiment for you to demonstrate what I mean as mentioned earlier in the video the US national debt is roughly $34 trillion if we assume a 2% annual interest rate on that debt that means the US government has to pay $680 billion in interest each and every year just to stay current on its debt this is easily calculated by taking the debt outstanding and multiplying it by the interest rate for reference in 2023 the US government had an annual budget of $613 trillion to cover all of its spending for the Year this spending including things such as social programs Education Health Care the military the list goes on and on but you get the point in our example here the $680 billion annual interest rate on the national debt makes up roughly 11% of the entire annual budget that means that 11% of the annual budget is spent not on providing services and resources to Citizens but instead just paying interest on debt the country incurred in the past you're able to see how this can create what is referred to by ra Leo as a debt spiral let's see what happens when interest rates increase let's take the interest rate on the debt up to 6% that annual interest expense jumps up to roughly $2 trillion now the annual interest expense on the national debt makes up 33% of the entire National budget let's take things up even one step further and bump the interest rate up to 10% that annual interest expense skyrockets all the way to a whopping $3.4 trillion this annual interest expense would take up a staggering 55% of the entire Federal government's current annual budget you can see now why Doo is referring to this as a crisis while this is of course just an example according to Doo it is a likely outcome unless some significant changes are made however Doo doesn't seem too optimistic about whats to come listen to him explain given the challenges that we Face uh fiscal challenges that you describe uh we need a political process that will help us get out of it do we have that as goes to the second issue that you always deal with which is internal conflict well the the the things that you see happen over and over again when you look at history is when you have a financial not good situation at the same time as you have large wealth gaps you start to see the emergence of populism and we see extremism in both of the political parties okay we see that split a populace is an individual or a leader or a political person who will win at all cost that the rules of the game don't as much matter and so we're in a uh the the January 6th type of incident and so on is very interesting the political system in terms of primaries and and the parties tends to create that sort of polarity I think that um I think it's very clear that there is only one good outcome if we canat and that's a strong bipartisan middle because either of the extremes is not going to be able to be dominant you're um the small right this um or or even the small left and um and as result we're seeing a fragmentation geographically you're seeing people move to different areas not just because of taxes but of differences in values and so on um and so you're seeing this separation I think over the next um two years um the real question is can we maintain can we have a strong bipartisan middle or are we going to have that kind of fragmentation be we have two things three things aligning that are concerning uh on this uh short-term debt cycle I call it you know the seven-year cycle we're about halfway through in other words interest rates are now at a level that they're probably going to stay at but they're probably not going to rise much from here and there's tightness and the consequences of that are going to be a weaker economy going forward doesn't have to be a big big downturn because of the household sector but it is a balance sheet kind of um recession and I think you're going to that's things are going to get worse in the economy there's a financial issue at the same time as you have this internal conflict so I think that that's going to make for um a risky situation as the interest expense required for the US government to service its debt increases the government is left with two basic options first it can cut back spending dramatically cutting things such as spending on Military social security health care and education the second option would be to significantly raise taxes both of these options would understandably be extremely unpopular with citizens additionally the negative economic shock waves from drastic government's pending Cuts or higher taxes would be severe it's estimated that government's pending accounts for 37% of the United States economy as measured by GDP additionally a rapid increase in the federal tax rate would leave less money in the hands of individuals and businesses to spend while all this may sound scary there's actually a ray of Hope a way the United States could avoid a debt crisis for the this we have to look at history as Doo says it's important to study history because the past can teach us a lot about the present and what can happen in the future this chart here shows the size of the US national debt relative to the size of the economy to find a time when the US faced similar challenges relating to its debt you have to go all the way back to the World War II period of the 1940s as we can see in this chart the cost of financing the military pushed push the debt up sharply from around 40% of GDP before the war to a peak of nearly 110% of GDP as the war ended the US was able to avoid a complete financial and economic crisis in fact the post-war period was one of the most prosperous times in American history so how exactly was the United States able to dig itself out of this massive hole two words economic growth yes the US government did exhibit remark able Financial constraint in the post-war period however arguably even more important the US economy grew itself out of the problem you see a country's dead only really becomes a problem when it grows too large relative to the size of the country that is why a popular metric to measure the severity of a country's national debt is the public debt to GDP ratio this simple ratio is calculated by taking a country's government debt outstanding and dividing it by the size of a country country's economy measured by GDP the higher the ratio the worse situation a country is potentially in look at the United States the current size of its national debt is roughly $34 trillion the size of its economy is $27.6 trillion as of the most recent reading this gives the US a public debt to GDP ratio of a staggering 123% a higher reading than any other time period in the history of the country one option to get this number down would be to sharply reduce national debt as mentioned earlier this would be incredibly painful for the economy additionally with a drastic reduction in government spending any benefit from the reduction in national debt could also be offset by the economy shrinking ultimately resulting in no true reduction on the debt burden the better alternative and what happened after World War II would be if national debt stopped growing and the US economy would quote unquote grow into its debt look at how the numbers would work let's say over the next 5 years the US economy wants to grow from its roughly $28 trillion current size to $34 trillion that would bring the public debt to GDP ratio down to 100% if another 5 years passes and the economy grows to $40 trillion and national debt Remains the Same that ratio Falls further to 85% if we jump forward an additional 10 years and the US economy is now $50 trillion this ratio would have come all the way down to 68% still elevated by historical standards but more on par with levels last seen in the mid 1990s in the end only time will tell how all of this will play out however I do think it's definitely worth paying attention to what ra Leo has to say given his impressive track record I think it's fair to say he knows a thing or two about what he's talking about so there we have it make sure to subscribe to the channel because it's my goal to make you a better investor by starting the world's greatest investors talk to you again soon
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