저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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달러는 트럼프 2.0 하의 재정적자 확대와 통화 팽창으로 약세가 예상되며, 이는 귀금속과 신흥국 증시에 유리하다고 주장. 미국 빅테크(매그니피센트 7)는 고평가 상태로 하락이 임박했다고 보며 대체로 회피 의견. 중국·홍콩 주식은 저평가 상태로 전술적 매력이 있다고 봄. 인도 시장은 지금 매수는 기다리는 편이 낫다는 입장. 원자재(식량)는 바닥을 다지고 있다고 판단하며, 금은 화폐가치 하락에 대비한 보유 자산으로 권유.
다듬은 글
back with closing trades and quite a bit of bleeding is what you're seeing at an index level not just index level individual portfolio level and let me not even talk about what's happening within individual sectors because that's going to give you a clearer picture of the kind of um you know uh clobbering uh that you're seeing in the markets right now look at the new age stocks look at what's happening within the realy index cap Goods Telecom infrastructure power Banks technology pick up any sector and you're seeing very very sharp over there but let's try and understand you know how this entire jigsaw is going to play out what Trump 2.0 is going to mean for the dollar in the world and of course Emerging Markets much like India as well in particular Mark Faber editor and publisher of the Gloom boom and doom report joins in on the show right now Mark great to have you today on ET now thank you so much for your time firstly uh you know just wanting to understand what Trump 2.0 regime is going to mean for the US dollar and whether it's going to continue its up cycle well that's a very good question because I think that uh the widespread optimism about the Trump second regime is misplaced I think the dollar will weaken because he will spend as much as the previous governments they will not cut the deficit much most likely the deficit will increase under the Trump and so I think that money printing will be again accelerating and that it will weaken the US dollar certainly against precious metals and so I'm not very positive about the US and a weak dollar would be would be welcome by European stock markets and by Emerging Markets okay by Emerging Markets but you know when we were speaking a few months ago Mark you talked about how everything looks to be in a bubble has a lot of that corrected now at least in the Indian markets because we have seen a correction of what 10 12% from tops yes the damage caused in India is considerable because the index is holding up reasonably well whereas the typical stock is down 20 to 30 % already so actually the indices don't reflect the reality of the damage the damage is much more considerable I've seen a chart about various sectors many sectors are down 30% so after the 30% correction Mark is anything getting into the buy zone now any sector that you think in India might just look relatively attractive I think the problem is I see many stocks in the world that are reasonably priced also in Latin America and in Europe but I think once the Magnificent Seven in America start to decline which I think is imminent then everything will come down somewhat so I'm kind of uh holding off buying much more at the present time I would like to buy when the conditions are better but one thing I want to point out the US has outperformed everything over the last 10 years and some emerging markets and Europe have been trending down or flat and so some markets like the magnific and 7 in the US are topping out whereas other Market markets are bottoming out also food prices many food prices food commodities wheat corn soybeans are sort of bottoming out and so I believe that money wants the Magnificent Seven and the fun stocks in America once they break down the money will flow in other places also once the dollar is no longer the favorite currency as it is now the money would will flow somewhere else and boost the prices of markets that have been in a downtrend for 10 years or so so for instance I like Hong Kong shares and Hong Kong property stocks I also like Chinese stocks this Chinese stocks now are much much cheaper than Indian stocks interesting but you know uh Mark the chatter about the mighty it Giants in the us and you know the big fall or rather the impending fall has been on for quite some time now what makes you believe that you know finally the Humpty Dumpty will fall well that's a very good question because you're never sure about predicting the future I mean I I don't know any Guru that predicts the future consistently accurately especially foreign exchange markets are very tricky because they depend a lot on policy measures but one thing I want to say about that and if the Magnificent Seven in the US they are extremely expensive and they're expensive about relative to what you know with certainty about their future earnings so a the on a p basis they're very expensive and two we don't know what the earnings of Tesla will be in three years time we don't know what the earnings of Nidia will be in three years time or five years time so they are priced for a scenario where nothing goes wrong and everything exceeds expectations and I don't believe that they will exceed expectations because if you look at statistics in America investors expectation s are at the highest level ever they never been this optimistic about the future of stock prices so I'm very skeptical but I agree with you you don't know for sure but why take the risk about something when you don't know for sure I'm more interested in things that are very depressed where everybody is negative there's in the West Western press you cannot find a positive article or comment about China and Hong Kong and Hong Kong has its set of problems but not as bad as Berlin London Paris M and so for where the immigrants have are taking over entire areas CH not the best tactical trade right now then is China then the best tactical trade because of the depressed valuations it's one option Latin American markets are also very inexpensive and in Latin America last year I mean I was talking about Argentina for the last three years last year it's the best performing ETF up more than 60% and some stocks within a year like ban mro are up five times so you have to buy things that are really sold out and where nobody takes an interest stocks that are neglected that is what you need to buy quite interesting Mark let's talk about the India context because you know clearly the dollar bullishness has weighed acutely heavily on our currency and which is why you're also seeing this entire fii FBI exod along with that of course you know earnings as well have petered down and it was a you know Market which wasn't quite comfortable on the valuations at least till October of last year but where is it that you find structural stories now in India well as I said I would wait du buai into India at the present time I'm uh I'm of the view that the global markets are not particularly attractive because we have a scenario where interest rates are likely to move up in the future because they haven't addressed in the Western World the problems of inflation the problem of inflation arises from too much government spending which then has to be financed by money printing by an expansion of money in the system and that creates inflation and every everywhere in the Western World the the debt level the government's debt level has increase as a percent of GDP especially in the US and so forth so in my view the entire environment for stocks is not particularly good number two I believe that commodity prices are sort of bottoming out maybe gold is not bottoming out here because it's relatively high but say other Commodities food commodities are sort of bottoming out and could increase quite a lot in 2025 so if that happens inflation will accelerate and by the way I want to emphasize this to Indian viewers the inflation rate in America and I Define inflation here as Consumer Price inflation not asset inflation but the increase in the cost of living that is inflation the increase in the cost of living in America is of course not 2.3% or 2.7% it is much higher it is between 7 and 10% if it's measured properly by private institutions and not by the government the government's all of them worldwide have one Leisure Time activity and that is to lie to the public about everything they never tell the truth and inflation I guarantee you you can ask every Indian how much is the cost of living or your cost of living going up you can ask any American you can ask any European how much is the cost of living of your family going up it's all above 5% not what the government is telling you Fair Point you do feel the pinch on everyday basis because the cost of living seems to have gone up much higher than just around 5% but Mark since you are are the author of The Gloom boom and doom report tell me where is it that you're seeing a Gloom where are you seeing the boom and which is that Doom area well the the gloom and doom is in my view the popular American stocks where everybody body speculating at the present time the most widely held Stocks by the public in America are Tesla and Nidia both highly priced stocks with an uncertain future and these stocks people trade them from all over the world so that is a sector I would avoid and we have examples two years ago in 200 2122 we had the the spcs stocks which were popular then the meme stocks and so forth and all these stocks are down significantly four years ago the most popular stocks were cannabis stocks they're all down 90% And and some and most of them are actually bankrupt so stay away from very popular sectors That's My View From the popular sectors that's a view coming in Mark and we just have that big event lined up in India the union budget uh are you expecting the government to come out with some big bang announcements or do you think that you know in order to put more money in hands of consumers the cost of living topic that we just discussed they should come out with some sort of tax rebates or subsidies I'm in favor of tax rebates and I'm also in favor of reducing the government in a perfect Society the government is maximum 15% of the economy and no more and the government should stay out of the economy entirely because whatever they touch the government does worse than the private sector the other thing I wanted to talk about you know you were touching upon Commodities and you did talk about AG what about the precious medals do you think gold and silver will continue to have the bull run that they have cherished for a large part from the co laws as you know I have been optimistic or not optimistic I've been pessimistic about paper money for the last 40 years and I've always told every reader of mine and viewer of interviews and so forth if you trust central banks then keep your money in paper money but I will never trust the central Banker because all of them all of them print money and so the value of paper money is going down is going down in India it's going down in America and in Europe and the anchor what is solid is the price of gold the price of gold doesn't move up but the value of paper money goes down so expressed in paper money the gold price looks as if it's going up and I would hold some gold as a reserve I don't speculate in Gold but last year was a good year for me because the value of paper money has gone down 30% compared to Gold so to your viewers I would advise keep your go but make sure that the government doesn't touch it because that is always an issue they can also touch your bit Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies that I tell you yeah we'll have to be careful of that but Mark always a pleasure speaking with you thanks so much for joining us today
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