저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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연준 금리 인하 가능성이 커지고 있으며 9월 인하 확률이 약 88%로 상승했다고 봄. 실질 민간 최종판매는 1% 수준으로 둔화, 소비자 저축률 상승, 물가는 관세 영향 속 하향 안정 예상. 중기적으로 생산성 주도의 강한 성장 회복이 올 것으로 보며 이는 2026년 중간선거 전후로 나타날 것이라 주장. 비트코인은 단기 변동성 속 장기 상승 흐름 유지 가능성 언급, 이더리움 고래 매집 및 ETF 유입 소개(사회자 발언 포함 내용 일부).
다듬은 글
Uh this week, uh Chairman Pal sounded very hawkish. Uh I think he didn't appreciate being um being featured along with President Trump uh at a construction site. Uh so there there may have been something else going on there because the data as it is evolving here is certainly moving in a direction that would lead the Fed to uh to ease.
Kathy Wood dives into Fed descent and bold rate cut predictions. What's happening? Why it matters. Let's hear her take now. And of course, for the first time since 1993, there were two dissents uh on the the Fed board uh this time around. And that that uh suggests that we probably are going to see interest rate uh uh cuts in the future.
I think the the the odds for a rate cut in uh September are up to 88% and a 50 basis point rate cut uh maybe they're up to 25% or so. Uh so uh we think that will resolve positively as well. That's the one uncertainty and and the reason uh this matters is if people think rates are going to come down then they're going to wait and see how low they go before they take major actions or make big purchases.
Uh so getting back to some kind of equilibrium is going to be important and that is we think the the last uncertainty uh before we have we move into uh what we believe will be a very strong recovery uh from a rolling recession. maybe starting with a rolling recovery, but gathering momentum and uh we think by midterm elections next year.
Uh clearly on the up and up with uh big upside surprises in real growth, productivity and uh downside surprises on inflation. So that would be another positive uh because of productivity. Is Bitcoin gearing up for a repeat journey towards 75K? This week kicks off with BTC bouncing back from its recent low below $112,000, sparking intense debate in the market.
Price action has turned volatile, catching both bulls and bears offguard as Bitcoin teeters at a crossroads. Some analysts believe this latest dip is just another brief correction, while others warn that a deeper pullback may still be on the horizon. BTC is currently hovering near $114,000 with $116,500 emerging as a potential magnet level where short positions could face liquidation.
This is drawing attention from traders who believe a sharp move up or down is just around the corner. Analysts like Dan Crypto Trades point out that monthly price swings have historically been more significant, suggesting August might bring greater volatility than we've seen so far. Despite the turbulence, demand for Bitcoin remains strong.
Even as short-term holders and whales unload some of their positions, long-term investors and accumulation wallets are stepping in, adding tens of thousands of BTC. Market watchers say this could support a solid rebound. With the Federal Reserve back in focus and September rate cut expectations building, macro forces might soon give Bitcoin the momentum it needs.
Whether BTC will revisit 75K or aim higher will depend on how these dynamics unfold in the coming weeks. So now we'll go into monetary policy. As I mentioned, uh Chairman Powell sounded quite hawkish. Uh even though reporters were saying, well, wait a minute, housing seems to be relapsing. And he deflected that.
And well, wait a minute. the the metrics you look at in terms of core growth and core inflation, they're all moving in uh in the right direction when it comes to inflation. Uh and actually in the wrong direction when it comes to GDP growth. Uh I think um I'm not going to get the metric exactly right, but what Chairman Powell uh focuses on is real private uh domestic final sales and that uh is running in the 1% range and we saw that with the consumption figures very slow.
the consumer is becoming quite cautious and beginning to uh lift the savings rate. Uh we think that could cross 5% this year. Uh but you see money growth did start turning around. It was negative for quite a while. We're now up to roughly 5%. But when you get cautious consumers, that means the velocity of money, the rate at which it turns over slows down.
So the stimulative effect just isn't going to be there the way that this chart might suggest. Um we also know that the CPI which is depicted in the green here uh faces some tough comps comparisons. So I think uh we have two more tough comparisons at the zero and 0.1% rate for the next couple of months.
So, uh, the inflation rate could stabilize here and maybe that's what, uh, Powell was responding to, just knowing that the optics aren't going to look great on inflation, meaning continued progress. Um but if but if we're right uh that will be it then we're off to another leg down in inflation towards the 2% and actually below the 2% range if we are right now.
Of course we have been expecting much lower inflation for quite some time. Tariffs are complicating the situation perhaps a bit right now. And here's Bitcoin to gold. uh you can see that bitcoin to gold is uh maintaining its uptrend. We'll see if it breaks out. Uh I think the the risk on trade has helped it recently and uh we think that will be the case when that case will continue when it is clear that we're not going into a long-term recession.
uh that the Fed is going to ease and that a strong productivitydriven um boom I would say in economic growth is is underway paving the way for midterm elections that should favor uh the majority now. So with that, I know a lot of puts and takes, a lot of charts. Uh but it it was a busy day for sure in the markets.
A lot of fear surfacing uh once again. Uh and yet the way we're interpreting this is this is uh another indication that the market is climbing a wall of worry. And we need these shutters every once in a while uh to keep speculation in check. Uh and we think that's just another one of those checks. Ether mega whales didn't blink during the weekend dip.
Instead, they kept buying. As ETH slipped above $3,400, onchain analysts notice a surge in largecale accumulation. One massive wallet revealed by Arkham Intelligence scooped up $300 million worth of ETH through over-the-counter trading with Galaxy Digital. That wallet now holds over $79,000 ETH, worth more than $280 million, showing clear confidence in the assets long-term strength.
Black Rockck has been piling in, too. Its iShare Ethereum Trust ETF saw $1.7 billion in inflows in just 10 trading days, showing massive institutional appetite. According to Dune Analytics, ETF holdings of Ether have skyrocketed more than 40% in the past month, further fueling bullish sentiment. Glass Node data confirms that the number of Mega Wheel addresses, those holding over 10,000 ETH, has surged since early July, adding over 200 new addresses.
These include exchange, custodian, and ETF wallets, all building exposure. Ether's price quickly rebounded at the start of the week, climbing back above $3,560. Analysts suggest that while recent macro fears hit sentiment, growing expectations of rate cuts could give crypto a strong boost. Even Eric Trump chimed in, telling followers to buy the dip.
With institutions circling and whales stacking, Ether might be preparing for another powerful leg up. If you have been watching so far, thank you so much for watching and do not forget to subscribe to BitcoinZilla for daily news all for free. That's all for today's video. Well, until next time.
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