저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
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미국 증시는 S&P500 기준 역사적 밸류에이션 상위 16% 수준으로 비싼 편이며, 향후 수익률은 연 3~5% 수준으로 평년(약 10%)보다 낮을 것으로 봄 밸류에이션 근거: S&P500 500개 종목을 개별 가치평가해 합산한 결과 27년 중 84%는 더 쌌고 16%만 더 비쌌음. 과거 이 수준에서는 1년 수익률 3~5%, 향후 3~5년 연 8~10% 기대. 단기 폭락 가능성도 인정하나 단기 예측은 하지 않음 소형주: Russell 2000은 27년 중 98%보다 싼 수준으로 매우 비쌈. 롱보다는 비싼 소형주 개별 종목을 숏하는 전략 대형주: 대형주 중 저평가 종목에서 기회를 찾음. 변동성 확대는 종목 선별 투자자에게 호재 달러: 단기 환율 방향은 예측하지 않고 수년간 이익 흐름 중심으로 봄. 미국 중심 운용 언급 종목: 애플(롱, 저평가·생태계 강점), 보잉(롱, 과점, 시장보다 싸고 성장 빠름), 구글(롱, 현금 제외 시 저평가), 러셀2000(비싸다고 판단, 비싼 종목 숏) 리스크: 단기 18% 급락 가능성, 3~5% 수익률 구간이 3년간 지속될 수 있음 출연자 전망: 단기 방향 예측 없음, 장기적으로 시장 평균 수준 이상 수익 기대
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in a market that is up nearly 40% since election day it can't be tough for investors to find value our next guest has made a career out of discovering hidden value in the stock market even being dubbed the value guru you may know of his books that were big hits with individual investors over the decades including you can be a stock market genius and the little book that beat the market over the last year has Gotham index plus fund has outpaced the sp500 by almost 6% it is up more than 5 percent year-to-date with more than 5 billion dollars in assets under management gotham asset management managing principal and co chief investment officer Joel Greenblatt joins me now from the Forbes top advisors conference in Las Vegas good to see you Joel thanks so much for joining us sure my pleasure so let's start off with where you see things here characterized for us the backdrop for investing obviously the macro story has been pretty good and how you view this market at current levels sure well you know the stock market is just a bunch of stocks added up together and that's the way we look at it and stocks are ownership shares of businesses so we actually go around and value each individual business so if you think about the S&P 500 got 500 stocks that weighted a certain way based on their market cap and we value them daily and we've done that for the last 27 years individually and then we add them all up and rank them the way the market does and right now we're in the 16th percentile towards expensive over the last 27 years what that means is the markets been cheaper 84% of the time more expensive 16 percent of the time then we can go back and look at what's happened from this valuation level in the past and what's happened is is that from this valuation level in the past of stocks year Ford returns of average 3 to 5 percent to year Ford 8 to 10 so below normal because the markets averaged about 10 percent a year for those 27 years and this is 3 to 5 percent and that makes sense because the markets more expensive than it's traditionally been but importantly not a negative expected return now of course we can't tell you what's going to happen in the next year and the way we can get back to those 10% expected returns could be in a few ways one the market can fall 18 percent tomorrow the other is it doesn't have to do that it could just under earn maybe 3 to 5 percent for the next three years and then three years from now we'll be back to nine or ten percent expected returns so I can't tell you what's gonna happen in the short term but you know gives you a perspective of where we stand so with all of that perspective Joel where are you finding value in this market right now well I just told you about the S&P 500's in the 16th percentile well the Russell 2000 which is stock number one thousand one through three thousand those are the small caps that's in the second percentile meaning it's been cheaper 98 percent of the time over the last 27 years so as you would expect we're finding more value in the large caps and the the Small Cap index is expensive we don't short that index we short the most expensive stocks in that expensive index so our opportunity set is really in small caps alright so small have have created opportunity but they've gotten expensive so you want to be shorting then small caps yes that's exactly what we do so the opportunity set on the long side is in the large caps and on the short side it's mostly in the small capsule though there are plenty of high priced the market is expensive even large cap so in an expensive market if we short the most expensive stocks their opportunities there as well yeah I mean there was a lot of discussion about the small in the mid cap area around the tax plan because these smaller companies are getting a huge benefit having to see a tax rate corporate rate go from almost 40 percent to 21 percent but it's the large caps today that you say you're finding opportunity tell me how the dollar fits into that Joel because as the dollar has traded up that been a negative for these uh these international companies but of course we've seen such volatility and most recently the dollars damn you think that continues really we don't think about the world that way we're looking more long-term you know we're looking for earnings over years and the dollar is not too far out of line with other currencies if you look at a long term perspective what it's going to do in the short term I haven't found many people are very good at predicting that so we're looking at streams of earnings over many years the next you know five or ten years and so what happens in the very short term is really not going to affect us some of the large cap companies have a lot of international business some don't yeah I think you're absolutely right and a lot of people recently have been talking about the emerging markets creating an opportunity Europe finally we're seeing some growth numbers coming out of Europe these large caps that you're investing in are benefiting from the recovery we're seeing across the world correct sure you know we that's true because a big chunk of their business is international but we are very us centric in what we do especially in the long short portfolios where we don't have to balance currencies and trading costs and things of that nature and so we focus mostly on on the US and of course US companies do benefit from international business as you know so do you think that this market has gotten ahead of itself I mean are you expecting the volatility to continue and importantly the declines well you know we've had a actually very smooth until the most recently very smooth period of time which is not normal and so obviously I think the volatility will pick up from what's happened over the last couple of years and I think that's good news for stock pickers you know there'll be opportunities and discernment rather than just a steady flow up so I think that's for value investors like us that's good news and and again when you find value is it a specific sector or are you actually looking at specific situations stock situations can you share with us where the value is sure well you know I can name a few Long's that we like Apple as you know the biggest company but we still love it you know some people think it's just a hardware company that's gonna crash and burn like all of them do other people say no it's a network it's an ecosystem of products that play off one another the interest probably gray between those two but it's trading cheaper than the market it's a it grows much more than the market it's a very good business they have a great niche so we still love Apple and we own a bucket of apples these are things that gush cash or in high returns on capital we own Boeing which is duopoly you know there's really only one real competitor they're selling cheaper than the market yet growing faster than the market with a better market position we're also long Google which if you take out the cash is trading well below the market and obviously it's a great business so you know some of the big names believe it or not are still relatively good values you know it's interesting to hear a value manager talk about technology for the longest time we thought about these tech companies as the growth story is not the value stories but you're right you look at Apple and what it's trading at right now and it's it's gotta represent value because it's trading below the broader market well besides the fact that even Warren Buffett likes it what's good about it is that it's really got a pretty sticky business it's got a brand name that people love you know coca-cola has been a business for a long time and it's just sugar water and but people like the brand and so Apple has that going for us but more importantly it's also an ecosystem of products that work together and so it's far better than the average business it gets much better returns it's got a loyal fan base and and so if you can buy that cheaper than the market that's at least on a relative basis a good deal and so so we like it Boeing as I said is a duopoly that's you know very hard to create that and big barriers to entry so you know also great business and everyone knows about Google that even though it's a little cheaper than the market it's much much better than the average business and much stickier business so these are great relative bargains and should get us reasonably nice returns better than the market
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