저자: 미상 · 외국인
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이번 주 증시 반등세가 이어지고 있으며 지난 금요일(6/5)이 변곡점이라는 주장이다. 진행자는 33일간의 약세장이 끝났다고 판단하며, 매물(신규 매물 증가)이 늘어나면 경기 회복 신호로 본다고 말한다. 고용 지표와 소비 회복(식당 예약, 패스트푸드 채용 확대, 뉴욕 1단계 재개장)을 근거로 제시한다. 슈퍼 법관 격인 드러켄밀러가 랠리를 놓쳤다고 인정한 점을 언급하며, 본인도 상승장을 놓쳤다고 밝힌다. 아마존 목표주가가 RBC에 의해 3,300달러로 상향되었다고 소개하며, 현재 주가 약 2,800달러 대비 약 20% 상승 여지를 언급한다. 항공·크루즈 주식의 급등은 닷컴 버블 때처럼 실적 없이 과열된 것일 수 있다며 주의를 당부한다. 과거 eToys, Webvan 등의 사례를 든다. 유가는 OPEC 감산 연장(7월 말까지)과 셰일 업체 재가동으로 약 40달러 부근이며, 뉴욕·캘리포니아 재개장으로 수요 회복이 기대된다고 본다. 주택 매물 수 증가 여부를 회복의 지표로 보며, 추가 부양책은 7월 이후에야 논의될 것으로 전망한다. 국가부채 증가에 대해서는 반대 입장이다. Biden이 민주당 후보로 확정되었으나 'not Trump' 전략은 효과가 없다고 평가한다. 진행자는 크로스핏 CEO의 발언과 Reebok 후원 철회 등 기타 이슈를 짚으며 시장 낙관 기조를 유지한다.
다듬은 글
good morning everyone how are you doing today Monday June 8th let me make sure the volume is all the way up yes it is awesome so hey first and foremost I think this week continues kind of the positive momentum right we have come out of the valley of despair and we should have some pretty good kind of numbers for at least the next couple of weeks where we are going to see perhaps a pause and what is coming on is when we get to the next earnings round but let's not think about that today let's let's enjoy this week Friday I think is going to last Friday is going to be proved to be an inflection point I'm calling it now and we'll see how I look in six weeks that I think Friday and the call out to agents which I actually did a very short video on to reach out to listing you know people who wanted to sell their real estate we're gonna see if listings go up they won't go up everywhere but I'm guessing we're gonna see a flood of listings I really do I mean if we are going to think this economy is getting back on track we're gonna take our spring selling season and make it a summer selling season and if that happens that will be a signal to me that this 33 day bear market is behind us and we will forget about it in months or quarters to come once we kind of absorb a nasty quarter of earnings which we won't even think about we'll ride them off so again let's enjoy the week again I think Friday is an inflection point I don't know how us to say it I still three days later people are arguing over the number Matt you're missing the point right don't don't argue a data point look at the trend and the trend is drastically changed and for the first time we have people calling out a 10 million jobs growth in June no man what are we we're in June yeah so again I think signs are looking better yes we still have double-digit unemployment yes we have plenty plenty of problems but we have a few less problems than just a couple of weeks ago I feel it just in my little area right people went from being very kind of stand back to man let's go out listen let's do something so when I reported six weeks ago about China kind of the revenge purchase their words not mine appears to be happening restaurants are full although they reduce capacity all the caveats but again the economy is picking back up and let's just enjoy it so a couple of couple of quick things Stanley Druckenmiller was on CNBC this morning basically saying he missed it and I think you're gonna see this a lot from the hedge funds folks and you know I've been pretty clear I missed it as well Stanley Druckenmiller said he's been humbled by the rally he's made three percent over the last couple of months where the market is up forty to forty five percent and you know I appreciate that you know when you're wrong own it as I have and the fact that somebody of that stature comes out and says that is pretty good because most people will come out and celebrate their wins and what they got right I respect you more when you come out and tell me what you got wrong and I've been pretty clear on this that I was wrong as well so shout out to him on the stock front RBC came out this morning and raised Amazon's target to thirty three hundred actually I think I checked they're at 2,800 today so that's a 20% pop you know roughly so pretty interesting on the hiring side looks like Dunkin which Dunkin Donuts they plan to hire twenty five thousand people this summer not to be outdone Taco Bell's looking to hire thirty thousand people it looks like fast food is ramping back pretty quickly so a lots of good stuff going on there New York phase one begins today again to see the jobs number open up when you really had California and New York population hubs still on lockdown just shows you how good June could be again we're not going right back to three and a half percent unemployment I get it but we're not gonna see the 25 percent either that we all feared shoot 30 days ago so pretty interesting little tidbit from around the world New Zealand is claiming to have eliminated the virus you know some good news there they've obviously instituted some pretty significant travel bans and things of that nature but again it's not it's not horrible news right TSA talking about Airlines man airline stocks are on fire Wow TSA talked about 431,000 passenger screenings yesterday that is a record for this time period but realize that's still 83 and a half percent below last year this time so you know but it's upwards it's not 97 percent below right so it's trending backwards I think it is pretty clear that the next stimulus will actually not go out and you know really be discussed until July I think it behooves all of us to wait and see what happens in June to see where we have to add stimulus I think another stimulus will happen out question I think it I think we need to see what the first three trillion dollars does so we spend our future money our kids money where it most appropriate I think sending out another three trillion dollar kind of catch-all is a mistake that we would pay for for years to come we don't need any more national debt but I do think we need to tweak some things hospitals come to mind for sure I think what I'm reading in hospitals is it just doesn't it doesn't compute in my head right this is a health crisis but yet hospitals are suffering it's because of all the elective surgeries and the like but again I think another stimulus will come but it won't come till July because we're gonna want to see the employment picture in June where that goes so all these all these videos coming out about stimulus every day I think we're gonna wait till July until there's something meaningful to talk about what else Oh something else I want to talk about just because I'm seeing such a run-up in Airlines and cruise lines it just feels to me as somebody who was burned by the dot-com crisis back in the early 2000s that there are companies flying higher because people are just running them higher when they don't have earnings so if you own an done buying these Airlines and crew stocks do me a favor go check out some companies call that I looked at from the dot-com era that had similar sky-high valuations and then suddenly were gone check out eToys calm pets calm Razorfish and Webvan there's a long list I could have picked other names I just wanted you to go look just so you appreciate how billion-dollar companies can go from hero to zero very quickly when they don't have earnings right eventually positive earnings matter you know there was jokes back in 2000 that people were selling $80 items and wrapping him in hundred-dollar bills right eyeballs mattered until they didn't we have cruise lines anchored around the world not doing anything and no cruises planned until later this year but yet their stocks are flying higher frankly if I owned a cruise line given all the debt we've taken I'd probably be selling shares into this craziness right you want my shares great let me sell some shares and pay off some debt we'll see if that happens so just be careful that's all I'm saying right I'm not a stock guy don't only stocks won't own any stocks but again just remember that there were companies worth 20 billion dollars that were not worth 20 billion dollars when the market realized that matter so just be careful energies up OPEC has again agreed to keep production down until the end of July so they extended that but what's interesting is it looks like shale companies are I don't know what would you call them starting back up again they couldn't make money sub $30 32 was kind of the magic mark oil is up near 40 and as New York and California open demands gonna go up for gas so we really do seem to be picking back up and v-shaped recovery in the stock market no doubt but man it could happen in the economy too this is this is this this will be for the history books and again for real estate for me it's all about listings right do listings go up I don't know let's use a national number 15 percent I think they were 1.1 million nationally single-family homes the last report I saw so are they 1.25 million maybe one point two seven million by the end of June that'd be a good sign that would mean the transaction engines going but if listings still stay flat there's another problem going on out there so it will be interesting I think we can call the bear market over this is the shortest bear market ever it was 33 days in duration it went from February 19th to March 23rd who would have guessed that not me not me next up Biden looks like he is clearly or actually now officially is the Democratic nominee yeah he's got all the delegates or whatever you call that so now we need to hear from him with the economy coming back and all at this he can't just say nothing and be the not Trump guy that's not gonna work for him he needs to get out there and talk and tell us his story right what are you gonna do the last campaign was hey I'm not him that didn't work out so well so get out there have an opinion let people know you you know a lot of people think you're going go out there and talk and confuse people but you've got to do something if the economy is truly coming back screaming and we get back to all-time highs and people are feeling better the not Trump trade is probably not a good political strategy so be careful be careful what else do we have today oh I just want to say one thing about CrossFit I don't know if I mentioned a few times in passing I've used to go to a CrossFit gym a lot and their CEO came out and said some stupid things the other day and boy I'm glad to see him get just hammered Reebok has pulled out a sponsorship rogue which are two big institutions have pulled out and the CrossFit community has hammered him for his insensitive and racist comments and the gym that I used to go to in see fit run by jason khalipa actually said we are no longer going to associate with crossfit and they're cancelling there I'm not sure what it's called membership or sponsorship or whatever it is so Jason nice job that's uh that's a good move man we don't need to support people who don't understand what is going on so nice job buddy what else do we got for you that's what I got the feel-good rally continues we got an interview at 8 o'clock with Greg Dickerson of course it is Monday I'm going to be doing another presentation for you about what is going on with I forget his name already I have another surprise presentation I built over the weekend that I will Ken McElroy that's it man drew a blank Ken McElroy and I want to do a video on something I saw him present over the weekend okay all right everybody have a wonderful day take care of yourself again the feel good rally continues enjoy it it's summer get some sunshine get some vitamin D let's wear our masks if you're in a big group all right let's just listen let's not do anything silly but yeah I think I think its social distancing masks and we just get through this and the American sumer is legit all right everybody take care bye
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