저자: RobMoore · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 레이 달리오의 '현금은 쓰레기' 주장을 맥락화하되, 본인은 단기(4~6분기) 동안 현금을 보유하겠다는 입장. 달리오 주장의 의미: 현금은 현재 금리 수준에서 비소득 자산이며 인플레/통화 확대 환경에서 구매력이 줄어들 수 있고, 경기 재가동(리플레이션) 국면에서는 현금이 좋은 자산이 아니라는 뜻으로 해석. 본인의 실행: 4분기(작년 4분기)에 아파트 건물을 매각하며 현금 비중을 늘림. 아파트 가격이 고평가되고 신디케이터들이 과도한 가격에 매수한다고 판단. 원칙으로 '주택이 비싸면 팔고, 아파트가 비싸면 판다'를 언급. 1분기 시장 평가: 달리오는 1분기에 펀드 손실 약 20%를 겪은 것으로 언급되며, 현금을 보유하지 못한 것이 원인으로 제시. 화자 본인은 현금 잔고가 변하지 않아 안정적이었다고 평가. 연준 금리 인하(사실상 0%) 이후에도 MMF 수익률이 0으로 떨어져 현금의 변동성이 낮았다고 설명. 향후 전망: 주식시장은 추가 하락 다리(leg down)가 있을 것이며 기술주 붕괴(tech wreck)가 올 것이라는 견해. 다만 백신 소식 등으로 상승하면 틀릴 수 있다고 인정. 2분기까지는 현금 보유 가능성이 높다고 언급. 투자 철학: '1번 규칙은 돈을 잃지 않는 것'(워런 버핏 인용). 너무 일찍 들어가기보다 랠리 초기 10%를 놓치는 편이 낫다고 주장. 닷컴 버블 붕괴 경험으로 주식을 불신하며 부동산 중심 투자를 강조. 장기 견해: 장기적으로는 현금이 쓰레기가 맞지만, 단기(4~6분기)에는 현금 보유가 적절하다고 봄. 4~6년 보유 생각은 없다고 명시. 현재 입장(2020년 4월): 오늘 현금 보유는 편안하지만 8~10월에도 같을지는 모른다고 유보.
다듬은 글
everyone la likely gonna be my last livestream of the day this is a topic that I've been wanting to talk about for two or three days now and this is the Ray Dalio quote cash is trash he first put this out there in mid-january and he actually doubled down on it on April 16th so ray still believes this still believes Cash's trash and it's still something we need to talk about because you know first off he's a billionaire and he has the ability to invest with a long term horizon you and I simply don't have the balance sheet and income state and to kind of support everything that he's doing so I thought I would talk about it put it in context really talk about how I am using that concept of cash is trash to change our financial future but first let's realize what he's saying when he is saying cash is trash he's essentially comparing it to other investable assets cash is for the most part giving current interest rates a non income producing thing it is something that will likely deteriorate in value as we reflect there is just a printing press on high so each dollar is you know it's deflationary it will lose purchasing power and most importantly most importantly when you really peel back what I think Ray Dalio is talking about is cash is not going to do well in a reflation airy environment when the economy gets kick-started in even if it's starting to sputter and spin and move forward and lurch and do all those things that it will do as it gets up to humming again cash is it's not going to be the asset you want to be in so when you hear cash is trash or at least what I hear cash is trash he is he is already talking about the future right he is already talking about the future and you know I don't know about you but I don't have the balance sheet income statement to always bet on the future and be that Earl right he is already there what I you know what I did is I got to cash I went to cash in q4 actually before this event I did that again as I've shared on this channel many times by selling apartment buildings I thought they were overvalued there were too many syndicators out there paying stupid prices and as I've said in our book when houses are expensive I sell when apartments are expensive I sell so we went to cash in q4 and you know I had no interest as this health event started to build in January February in March worked its way from east to the west to deploy capital Ray Dalio again under the mindset of cashes trash suffered a huge q1 hit released huge in my opinion he lost 20% in his funds because he was not comfortable sitting on cash I'm extremely comfortable sitting on cash and thankfully was able to do that I do agree with Ray that as we get forward you know get through this event and the economy starts to kick start it will be time to deploy cash I just don't have that I don't want to you know if I had that ability I don't I'm not gonna wait I'm not gonna invest early I guess is what I'm saying I'm gonna wait until the economy gets going and starts to sputter like a moped or something back in the day that just kind of lurches forward you know Ray has the ability to invest early he could suffer a 20% loss in a quarter where I would prefer not to do that you know cash is a less voluble volatile asset and that's why I held it right we raised it in q3 q4 of 19 and we held it didn't do a thing with it in q1 right January February March cash balance didn't change they slashed interest rates from whatever it was one in three quarters to zero didn't do anything money market accounts went from one and a half percent to zero didn't do a thing so cash is less volatile so I was comfortable holding it I will likely be comfortable holding cash through q2 right I don't think we've seen the worst of it I think the stock market is another leg down I think the tech wreck is coming I've been talking about it and I'm happy to be wrong stock market goes up from here we have a vaccine created on Wednesday next week great I missed out you know I believe in the old Warren Buffett saying or something it goes something like this right rule number one is to not lose money rule number two is don't forget rule number one so I would rather miss the uptick where ray is like no I'll be early so I think that's really what Ray's talking about I think in the long term cash is trash but I do think there's a time and thankfully we were early so we may be holding more cash for four to six quarters and I'm okay with that I certainly won't be holding it for four to six years cash was is trash in that lens so when I hear ray talk about this I think it's interesting the thing that I would tell investors or folks that watch me is being early there are no heroes being early right when you're a billionaire like Ray Dalio and you have the ability to do that go for it but you and I aren't there I would rather miss the first 10% of the rally then lose 20% on the downside that's just me I was burned by the dot-com crash I have a long documented history of the stock market hurting me so that's why I stick to real estate that's why I learned my market everyday that's why I can identify a deal better than most people in my market it's because I've looked every day for 20 years real estate is just the place for me I am gonna sit on cash probably for four to six quarters and that's okay with me so I again agree Ray Dalio he's one of those guys that I watched the cash is trash in four to six years I just don't think cash is trash in four to six quarters so that's what I think let me know what you think I'm certainly comfortable being in cash today as we sit in April while I be as comfortable in August or October I don't know but I'm certainly happy to be in cash today so that's what I think Radha Rea dollars cash is trash concept again first came out in January and he doubled down on April 16th so I wanted to share my thoughts with you let me know what you think have a wonderful day bye
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