저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 베이지북은 경기 회복이 불확실하고 대다수 기업이 비관적이라고 전함. 전문가 의견은 엇갈림: JP모건 측은 채권금리가 낮아 주식이 매력적이라 봄, 웰스파고 측은 은행 배당 유지 가능하다고 봄, 하버드 교수는 V자 회복 후반부가 길고 고통스러울 것이라 경고함, SunTrust 측은 침체가 짧고 저점은 이미 지났을 수 있다고 봄. 진행자는 분산 매수(달러비용평균법)와 '바벨' 전략(성장주 vs 경기민감주 균형)을 제안하고 테슬라 등 단기 매수를 언급함.
다듬은 글
released their latest beige book I wanted to break down some of the important things in that and then I wanted to talk to you about what's happening how you might be able to properly prepare yourself for kind of what's happening in the marketplace we're gonna talk about what I've been calling the teeter-totter but I want to go deeper into the dumbbell analogy and I think that's going to be a very useful one so we'll go into that but let's start by talking about the Fed here's the scoop the Federal Reserve releases something called a beige book this is what it looks like it's literally a boring beige book that tells you what's going on and I'm not gonna read it to you instead I'm just gonna give you some of the bottom lines from it because they're very insightful so that we can understand what's going on and then how to best prepare a lot of these things might seem self-explanatory but I think the big thing that I wanted to do that I took away from this at least was right here when they talk about the overall economic activity they usually give you a little bit of like an outlook prediction and I like to see what the Fed thinks about this because the market looks at this people consumers businesses everybody kind of looks to see what everybody else is doing to know what we should be thinking and that's important especially if you own stocks or real estate obviously we saw declines and travel tourism leisure hospitality that this is no duh right and this is all from data between kind of mid April to mid-may mid to late May is when they collect this data I think they ended the data somewhere around May 18 but anyway the big thing that I wanted to point out here is although many contexts expressed hope that the recovery or that economic activity would pick up as businesses reopened here it is outlook remained highly uncertain and most contacts were pessimistic about the potential pace of recovery that's not good for them to say right even though we've seen consumer confidence tick up you kind of need everybody on the same page in fact there are a lot of businesses that just won't open up until they see a lot of other businesses open up and that the other businesses are actually profitable so it's kind of like this whole chicken or egg dilemma that's happening in the marketplace this is not very good however now I want to jump on over to may this be the shortest recession ever is much more pain to come and to help me kind of answer this I wanted to refer to this because I thought this was a brilliant piece this is actually a transcript of a TV is sort of interview on a CNBC with four different market strategists and I'm gonna give you the bottom line on what you what each of them said the first one works at JP Morgan that we've got a guy from Chase then we've got someone from Harvard and then we have another person I want to give you an overview of what they say and then we'll break this down and see what we can actually learn from this about the market going forward and how we might want to apply this to our investing strategies so the JP Morgan dude he thinks that hey look here's the thing when you've got Treasury yields so low like bond yields are so low it makes sense to invest in stocks even though some of the you know some of them might be selling for a premium basically he finds a you know yeah there's risk but if you stay long on stocks you might be more protected but he does suggest that look there are problems because a lot of restaurants are only Oh able to open at 25% capacity because of the social distancing rules and apparently most businesses and most restaurants don't think it makes sense to open until they can get to 75% capacity and that's gonna take a lot of social distancing relaxing to actually get to that capacity and it makes sense because restaurants I mean it's hard for restaurants to eke a profit it's a very low margin business and I personally hate low margin businesses I hate working in them I hate owning them and I hate their stocks so restaurants are not for me now moving on to what mr.
Mayo here says from a Wells Fargo he says at Wells Fargo they've run multiple different scenarios the v-shaped recovery the u-shaped recovery the l-shaped recovery you know we've heard of the Nike swoosh we've heard of it all and he says look here's the scoop it's pretty tough every way you slice it but he's actually very confident in the banks which in case you're thinking about investing in a stock and JP Morgan you know it's a lot of these banks they just had a crazy week a lot of them are up 20% over this week so it's kind of difficult to buy into them now but here sort of defense Hey look you know banks should be able to do dividends right now because we have so much cash and we prepared for a recession like this there's no reason we should have to cut dividends because we're prepared for this he does go on to say that hey look if there's going to be a big second wave and we go into some crazy depression like scenario yeah okay then maybe it's time for us to cut our dividends but for right now this analyst actually says there's no reason to kind of SAP the confidence of the market especially since so much confidence is already missing kind of based on what we just saw in the Federal Reserve's Beige Book that a lot of businesses and people are pessimistic about the outlook of the future that you know what now is not the time to cut dividends and make it even worse at least that the banks and according to this person's opinion which by the way I ran a poll on Instagram and Twitter asking you about kind of your thoughts on the conditions of the market and I would say probably like 60 to 65% of you are not that optimistic about the future but that doesn't mean there's not an opportunity for you to make money during this kind of time so Harvard a Harvard University former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers this is an economic professor at Harvard warned investors not to get eager too soon this is interesting so you've got a guy at Chase that's kind of like hey you know what equities are the place to be right now if you're a long time holder this Wells Fargo guy goes look no reason to cut dividends at the banks right now if you want to invest in banks both of them work at banks though here you got a Harvard economist saying hey you know what don't get too eager too fast in fact he goes on to say look we've already had the partial bounce-back right we've already seen that beginning up slope of the V he says it's already happened but he goes on to say the problem is you get the beginning of the V by opening up businesses like just turning the lights back on and getting some people back to work that's when you kind of see the beginning of the V that he calls the low-hanging fruit like that's the easy growth to see it's easy to grow ten percent when you're at a bottom that makes sense he does go on to say though that upper part of the V you know if you have like the initial part of the V that's the easy part e say it seems like he's saying hey you know this next part of the V might take a lot longer and that's kind of where you get that Nike swoosh analogy and he says I think you're in for a long painful slog so not a good thing to hear from somebody from Harvard although this does kind of align with what the dude at chase said where he goes look if you're gonna be in stocks and I'm gonna extend this to real estate because well I talk about real estate investing in stock investing in my programs linked below coupon code ends at the end of the month by the way we push that back a little bit but anyway if you're gonna be in it long you know now might be a good time to kind of just start buying in a little bit and remember the strategy that we always use or the strategy that I always recommend the strategy is don't like blow everything if you've got kind of a treasure chest of money we're like all right Kevin I've saved up five grand what do I do don't blow it all on one stock and certainly don't blow it all at the same time you know a little bit every every day the markets down every day one of your barbell stocks is read I'll talk about that in a moment by a little bit that way you're not blowing everything you got five K to invest put five five hundred dollars in a day something like that right spread it out that way your dollar cost averaging and you're not betting everything on one day all right what else we got right here this is a big one Keith has a big one and when you see Keith's well you're gonna want life insurance because it's probably gonna stress you out and I've got a link for you down below right next to the link to wher on your dollars by the way look usually I like buying stuff with m1 finance but I will give a shout out to platforms like weeble and Robin Hood this morning when I saw Tesla hits $790 I quickly bought ten thousand dollars of Tesla it's a back well over eight hundred dollars now and that little short term opportunity are usually on one of these monitors usually this guy right here I keep weeble up and I kind of track what stocks are doing when I see all of these sudden dips sometimes they only last for thirty minutes to 60 minutes I like to kind of buy so at the very least you know throw your hundred bucks in and then maybe keep that chart open and go all right where's when's Tesla dropping under 800 we'll talk about stocks in the barbell in just a moment though let's go ahead and look at the Keith's argument here he is a chief market strategist at SunTrust advisory services true it this is what he will Eve's he believes that this could potentially or wonders is this going to be the sharpest and shortest recession in history he goes on to say look if you go back and you kind of look at history you see that usually the difference or like the market tends to bottom out about four to five months before the recession is over and so in his opinion we've already seen the bottom and they thought the market was going to stabilize in summer but it's actually already starting to stabilize so he's making this argument that hey you know this could have this could just be the craziest short-term blip now I don't know if a lot of us can relate to that because a lot of us are like you know as individuals we're not doing as well and I think as individuals we believe more in what the Fed says when they say look people are highly uncertain there's a lot of uncertainty there's almost radical uncertainty in terms of is there gonna be a second wave is there not how is the reopening and a go or we're going to see spikes how bad are those spikes going to be if we send our children to preschool or our you know are they all gonna get sick and are they gonna have long-lasting health implications because of that in fact one of the things they mentioned here is a big problem is limited access to child care and I get that because it's like oh do I send my children to school to bring stuff back home you know I don't know it's weird children aren't really good at social distancing they're not really good at washing their hands and I'll tell you there's no way jack or max or wearing a mask it by the way Lauren did a new vlog so if you want to see a little bit of myself Lauren Jack and Max make sure to click the link down below next to life insurance my program and weeble and you'll see the little vlog link there you could see a lauren myself and the kids in a little bit of a family vlog and it gives you some real estate and property management advice as well now continuing on here what about this sort of barbell that I'm talking about all right let's explain that and I think this will give you a little bit more insight so I've always been referring to this as sort of the teeter totter market where on one hand we've got stocks like beyond me DocuSign peloton Facebook zoom you know even Walmart Costco PayPal AMD Nvidia Amazon right these companies are kind of like all on on one side of the teeter-totter now on the other side you've got all of the other companies which are like Macy's dave & buster's Carnival Delta Cheesecake Factory Norwegian Cruise Lines AMC Cinemark the Simon Property Group right and it seems like every day we kind of have this teeter totter going on well I like this new analogy better it's actually the barbell or dumbbell analogy kind of think about it like working out and it's kind of like you're lifting the economy up and it's like oh the sides getting oh I like that analogy like it seems to make a lot of sense and what I would recommend to you is if you're thinking about investing in stocks kind of because you know look when I invest in real estate and I buy real estate below market value well below market value that's the only way I buy real estate otherwise why I deal with real estate just say you're invested in stocks but if I could buy real estate a hundred grand 150 grand below market value my net worth instantly goes up by 80 to 120 thousand dollars when I buy a deal even if I'm buying it with like 3% down why would I not do that that's the stuff we talk about in the program right taking advantage of the federal programs that exist that allow you to do this that's why you could build your wealth so much faster with real estate but much like being conservative in real estate and buying properties well below market value I like to be conservative in stocks and so if I've got you know this dumbbell thing going on I'm not gonna blow everything on one side it's not like I'm gonna go to the gym and put you know 35 pounds on one side and 30 and 0 pounds on the other cuz it's like um dink you know that's not good and I know I'm using a small weight on purpose okay because you don't want to go crazy heavy right now because you know I mean I'm not gonna blow everything on stocks you want to be diversified between real estate and stocks but say you put and you go in slowly right you add five pounds at a time is almost the way to think about it but you don't want to add them all to one side so think if you're gonna add if you got 35 pounds to play with put you know 10 over on on one side of the barbell right on a red day so today's in my opinion a day and I executed trades on companies like pallet on I or Amazon or Tesla those were sort of on that one side a barbell and then on the other side if we see the banks pull back and we see the airline's pull back and we see the entertainment stocks and the Diva Busters and the restaurants pull back again then maybe it's time to add a little bit to that side but again don't go heavy don't put all your weights on at once and then you're too heavy on one so do everything on the other side I know I like that analogy but I want to hear what your thoughts are especially since we had some insight here from the Fed showing how pessimistic everybody is but that pessimism is exactly what's fueling this if everybody was optimistic you wouldn't have this shakiness you know if you're optimistic you go in there you pick up the thing and it's like all right we're going up to the air we're going down today we're going up today we're going down today it's kind of everybody's feeling like oh man I don't know that's that's a lot of weight on that oh I'm losing it I'm losing oh overcompensated right and that's kind of almost what you want to be taking advantage of right now if you're thinking about getting into the market obviously an easy way to do that is you can use Weeble let's see trade before hours and after hours if you prefer to use Robinhood that makes it easy heck you could use the cash app I don't even really care what you invest in but if you're very uncomfortable about this whole barbell thing then buy the gym and buy vo oh right the Vanguard total stock market index fund the sp500 kind of mirroring index fund which just advise you kind of a little bit of everything you bought the gym right if you want to be more aggressive and you want to pick make sure you're not dumping it all on one side and understand that we're having this right now so don't panic if one side is is going down after you bought and you're not a hero and professional investor if your other side you know is going up right it just means you're on the ride but the last thing you want to do is be the dude sitting on the bench watching everybody go hah look at the struggle picking up the weights you're atrophying if you're on the sidelines in my opinion you know I don't think the barbell is going away I believe in the barbell or dumbbell whatever you want to call it long run but yeah don't stay on the sidelines get in a little bit get up put some weights on the bar get started and if you need help check out those programs down below I go live to help you out personally Lauren's vlog next as she would totally appreciate your support and she's got some great insights as well I recommend you leave her a comment and ask her what kind of or or tell her hey you know I'd love it if you talked about this if you want Lauren to talk about hey you're my opinions on the stimulus here are my opinions on this you're my opinions on politics or whatever tell her that don't motivate her ]
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