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엔비디아 2022년 1분기 실적 발표 후 시간외 10% 하락. 매출 82.9억달러(+46%)로 성장했으나 EPS 0.64달러로 예상(1.29달러)을 하회(ARM 인수 관련 일회성 비용 포함 시 여전히 미달). 영업비용 +113%가 이익 감소 주원인. 매출총이익률은 +1.4%p 개선. 가이던스 매출 81억달러, 총이익률 65~67% 제시. 진행자는 5년 PE 88, 주식 희석(5년간 발행주식 12.6% 증가) 등을 지적하며 주가가 여전히 비싸다고 평가, 자체 가치평가 모델로 적정가 45~91달러(중간 64달러) 제시하고 관심목록 추가 권유.
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nvidia just reported and they are down 10 after hours here's what happened this is their actual press release from their website quarterly revenue of 8.29 billion up 46 from one year ago guys i want you to remember this because if you're new to our channel i preach about this all the time how is revenue up 46 and the stock is down 10 after hours it's all about expectations so here's where they fell short they were expecting the market was expecting a dollar 29 per share in eps they reported 64 cents however that was including a 52 cent um charge after tax charge for their arm acquisition which is a dollar sixteen so they still missed by 13 cents even adding that back in there so this is what i talk about when i say don't worry about the noise that's short term look at the outlook because look at this 46 revenue jump that is huge other things in the company that i like that i'm seeing this is their gap summary revenue up 46 like i said gross margin up 1.4 this means they were able to make 1.4 extra on every dollar they generated in revenue after their direct cost of goods sold that's a big jump guys that's not something to be to be looking at now here's something else though operating expenses up 113 that's what made their operating income and their net income and their eps down that's the big thing here guys they spent a lot of money on those operating expenses so what do you do with that information if you're interested in nvidia go do some more research on these operating expenses if you're part of our community and you're in the chat go in the chat and start talking to people about these results do some research together figure out are these operating expenses long-term were they short-term because of inflation i have no idea but that's really really important to understand the future of nvidia is this a trend that's going to continue or is it a temporary thing just like these earnings the earnings were had a 52 cent charge or whatever because the acquisition termination or something like that okay that's fine that's a one-time charge we're fine with that some other things i always focus on the gap earnings um but right here here are their expectations in outlook revenue expected to be 8.1 billion plus or minus two percent and that's including they have 500 million dollars related to russia and covert lockdowns in china all right gap and not gap margins expect between 65 and 67.
and up here they were at 65 percent 65.5 pardon me so these are the things that their outlook is looking stronger their eps missed okay what else they have here expenses this is interesting gap expenses of 2.46 billion guys gap is what really matters um i focus on cash flow gaap is just generally accepted accounting principles it's common for the industry that's fine that's why i like to look at cash flow so let's go to our software just look at nvidia for the future okay let's see here let's go and again if you're part of our community and you have the software please log in follow along it's a great way to learn while you're doing it now let's see here okay well look at this fall 52-week high frame videos 346.52 lick low is 154.6 and after hours right now oh boy all right so it's rebounded a little bit because when i went live when i started recording this thing it was down 10 now it's down 8.64 so some key metrics here guys five year pe 88.25 one year pe 43 and that's after that's after falling by over 50 percent think about that guys so if you go look at our past videos of nvidia yes the chip market was huge but it was driven up by the lack of supply so everybody said oh my god lack of supply they didn't care about the metrics involved yes lack of supply is going to drive up that's probably why they had a 1.4 percent increase in their gross margin lack of supply you have upward pressure on prices they can command more money fine by me um dividend you look at this dividend i don't even pay a dividend what what is this it's the 400 million dollars of their last 12 months eight billion dollars and the average the last five years of 4.6 billion let's just go right to our 8 pillars tab and if you're familiar with the pillars tab you know what it is if you're not familiar come on get with it this is great so two big x's obviously right here they're they're two metrics of valuation five-year pe 88 five-year price of free cash flow 91.75 guys that is high that is high now they are diluting us a little bit they've issued 12.6 extra shares since five years ago so they're diluting owners now do i blame them no why the stock was expensive go get that go get the stock out there let people buy your stock as a way to fund your business if your stock's expensive give it to them but you as an investor should know that's diluting you i guess it's better than having debt but you don't want them diluting the heck out of you like crazy prime example is tesla so here's the deal here's what this means if you're diluted extra 12.6 that means if their earnings and profit were up 12.6 that same period you got no gain whatsoever because you're still sharing it with 12.6 more owners all right now obviously lower debt levels only 2.9 times debt of their free cash flow with free cash flow increasing substantially you saw the last 12 months had over double the last five year average cash flow growth big revenue growth big look at this by the way revenue growth of 17.2 billion and of that 5.22 was increased cash flow that's pretty solid guys that's 33 margin when they're and look at this it's very consistent their five-year profit margin is 31.7 okay that's making a lot of sense here so then we have to decide okay what do we pay for coming like nvidia it's falling a lot has it fallen enough so remember if you're a part of a community stock analyzer tool this allows you to put your assumptions in for the future nvidia is a great company they have great products but please you need to separate the company from the stock price you can love a company i i just got a tesla yesterday guess what i'm not touching tesla stock right i own my laptop at home has an amd chip in it i don't own amd stock my laptop here has intel chip in it i own intel stock it i'd separate the company from the product so from the stock let's go to stock analyzer tool now in this situation i'm going to do a 10-year analysis and make my assumptions here now with this company my goal is to be conservative with every company i do so you're going to see these growth numbers and you're going to see my numbers and go paul what the heck they're so low guess what things can't grow 20 a year forever this company did 27 billion in the last year in sales so i'm gonna sit here i'm gonna go six nine and twelve percent for the next ten years and if you think those are too low guys go look at some of your favorite companies that were huge in the 2000s and how they did in the next 10 years growth is gonna even the best of best companies are gonna do about 20 growth over a 10-year period and that's the best of the best on average so keep that in mind margin now i do like this look at this gross look at this profit margin increasing 10 of the last 10 years it was 27.7 over the last five years was 31.7 last year was 36.
so i'm gonna be 28 30 and 32 free cash flow margin i'm gonna do actually the exact same thing now p e guys i'm still gonna keep the p e higher than normal at 14 16 and 18 and the reason being is it's a large company yes does it have potential absolutely and the more potential it has you should increase this pe but i still want to be conservative so i'm going to sit there in my job as a value investor is to buy when it's an obvious deal if you told me to sign a 20 pe for it i'd be like well in a bad market they're not going to sign a 20 pe so i want to be conservative about it i'm going to wait till the numbers come to me not me go to the numbers i'm going to wait for the numbers coming to me you always hear that in sports have the game come to you have the game i'm going to wait for the numbers to come to me and i always put a 12 and a half percent return for my margin of safety because i can always get 9 or 10 in an etf so for my margin of safety and for my effort for doing the work i do 12 and a half percent lately i've been hearing in our community that people have been doing 15 for more margin of safety more power to them hit the analyze button now remember the stock is currently at 154.94 so guys look at this low end 45 bucks high end 91 middle range 64.
and guess what with a 40 pe to drop from one fit from one call 170 here to 60 is about that would make it about a 15 pe okay that makes sense i would add this to my watch list to sit there and notify me when it hits there but as of right now guys nvidia great company great products not the right price
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