저자: RaamdeoAgrawal·ManishChokhani · 외국인
요약 보기
모디 3.0 시기 인도 성장 가속을 위해 노동·농업·행정·사법 개혁이 필요하다는 주장. 자본시장이 연간 약 120~130 lakh crore 부를 창출해 GDP 대비 30~35%에 달하며, 이 부의 효과로 직간접 세수가 예산을 크게 초과한다고 주장. 자본시장을 활용하면 4~5년 내 $10조 경제가 가능하다고 봄. 향후 10년 섹터 테마로 자본시장 기업(거래소·예탁·자산운용)을 꼽았고, 이들은 자산경량·독과점 구조라 초과수익이 크다고 평가. 다만 밸류에이션은 다소 비싸다고 언급. 금융 전반을 밸류에이션에 따라 옮겨 타는 전략 언급.
다듬은 글
we Modi G 1.0 Modi G 2.0 are very good and we ready for Modi G 3.0 what could be on your wish list oops that he comes back with 400 yeah but in terms of see there are few things which has been held back for example the farm law Farm laws the labor reforms the administrative reforms judicial reforms and the acceleration of this cycle uh I think has been held back for various political reasons if you gets enough leg room to push those through faster and accelerate us like he said to go to that 8 10% growth it cannot happen in the absence of labor laws getting people out of Agriculture getting urbanization Skilling them so all that is something which Small Things add up and that gives you the takeoff to the 10% growth number it's like so I'm quite hopeful that this government comes and does that and uh they leave our capital gain the way it is and not increase that yeah so it's like the batsman in good form you know couple of in and now all set to knock it out R you yeah I think uh one one other thing which uh most of the government miss out is the power of wealth creation by the stock market the Capital Market I think last year has created upwards about 120 130 lakh crores on a GDP of about say 300 300 lakh crores so we are talking about upwards of 30 35% of GDP when the GDP goes from 7 and half to 8 there is a headline you imagine 35% of GDP you have stuffed in the pockets of all the guys I mean mostly in Mumbai but uh no up up are the biggest yeah so what I'm saying is next year this year another 20 25% I think you got to ask the economist and they my sense is one of the thing they missing out uh apart from this GV calculation he gave me I think is is the wealth effect see the indirect uh direct and indirect tax collection is way beyond their Revis estimates and that is coming from the all the speculation which is happening in the market people are paying they gaining in the market and they are going they are paying the taxes and those taxes are the ones which are I think somewhere after 2 three years people figure out that uh there were three or four lakh crores more than what uh government had budgeted so I think the power of stock market and I think that's a differentiat between India and China and that's the differen between us and rest of the world and that power should be harnessed very well if you harness it well we can be $10 trillion market economy in next 4 years or 5 years and that power should be harnessed if you don't harness it it can destroy also okay all right I'm sure our audience as well are reaching to ask some questions so uh anyone yeah Nigel in fact I have an I have a guest with me who wants to ask a question go ahead if you can introduce yes hi my name is Dan Bia I worked for Manish B uh at Anam Nam with ask Manish B and ra uh just a couple of questions so now we've seen GS like electrification from 50% of the households still 90% we've seen Jal say null from 50% below to 90% so we've done the low hanging fruits a just it's a two-part question a any other segments where you all will see now in 3.0 where you'll see big sectors and R since you've been always talking about value migration any segments where you are seeing something similar happen I'm not talking about stock specific yeah so my sense is that uh the sector of the decade will be Capital markets and this will be benefiting not only from the savings reallocation but also shift from Bank deposits in terms of share Bank deposits to financial markets so we are going to have a I mean it's not a journey of one or two years 3 years but all the Capital Market companies and they are very asset like the beauty is asset like banking is extremely asset heavy so uh the kind of uh economic profit you going to get the excess return you going to get beyond the cost of capital is going to be stupendous and uh they're monopolistic and character if you look at these businesses they're not 304 depositories or 30 40 exchanges 30 40 asset management companies they are very very Asset Management top five or six or 75% of all the assets so and you don't need anything you don't even you don't have even a capital adequacy so I think these are the companies which I think uh if you look at 5 years they look a little expensive little pricey but that's a sector to watch yeah I don't disagree I think financials overall is a big theme within that we can keep moving from one horse to the other horse over the course of the next 10 years based on valuations so I'd agree with that thank you both of guest okay we have another
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