저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 시장의 장기 전망은 여전히 긍정적이며 이익 성장(연 약 15%)이 뒷받침된다. 단기 조정은 올 수 있으나 장기 투자 유지가 중요하다. 현재 PER 21~22배는 다소 높고 지수는 향후 5년간 약 2배(22,000→44,000 수준)를 전망한다. 정부 PSU 매각 기회도 언급된다.
다듬은 글
how do you look at the next three years given the fact that it's been pretty much a nice one-way ride from Co onwards correction will happen don't ask me when and why okay but it will happen it has happened for last 40 years it will happen again you know uh what will spur that I don't know it might be just a supply there'll be so much of Supply that every day you are taking $1 billion from the market by block deal clearly there will be correction people will get fed up and now government is not even selling the PSU dment is not even started yeah so government should also sell this is a golden opportunity for them I think post election the new news FM or whoever is the in charge dep and all they must sell if they don't sell then there is a wasted opportunity because they must use by selling 2 lakh crores they must go and build whatever fancy roads they want to make instead of four land you must make eight land roads but you must sell so uh clearly I mean there have see the overpricing is not a healthy thing if something should trade at 15p and if it is trading 35p see the person who's holding the stock he loves it but it is a completely wrong thing it is not healthy at all for the market some is going to collapse so correction will happen corre but next three to five years uh what are what kind of a market are we looking at and how should we gear up how should our portfolios be ready for it yeah so my see I it is it is dependent on the fact how the corporate profits move if a company keeps making losses it is worth five bucks only whoever is BU buying it doesn't matter God comes to buy then also it is worth 5 rup because it is making losses so if the earnings which is say Nifty earnings let's talk about broad so this year our guys are saying that we will earn anywhere between 980 to 990 975 something closer to th000 Bucks next is the forecast what they can see as an aggregate is about 1150 so they're saying about 15% earnings growth earnings growth is possible and now that could be in reality I mean generally things are going better than what they're saying so it could be 1170 1180 that as time comes they will revise I mean it also depends on rate cards and whole lot of things so but then trajectory of the earnings about 15% my multiple see it is p multiplied by earnings so earnings are this is outlook for the earnings P multiples are pretty rich at about 21 22 I would say that if it is uh say 20p so that gives me a a minimum of 23,000 and if it is 22 then you can do about uh another 3,000 so we might end up at 25,000 that is the most optimistic I would say the Outlook is clearly you know going up and up right now the momentum is positive PMI is positive everything is looking good tax tax collection is very powerful every month you get the high speeded data correct correct you know so uh tax collections are very strong in fact it is beating the government expectation revised by estimates also so clearly everything is right now there is no reason to say that earnings are going to collapse so as we look at this wave where we are probably two three years into this bull market uh what is the the one lesson that you would want everyone to remember one is don't don't time the market he'll always give a lot of jetas unnecessarily there could be sharp correction they deeper correction stay invested have faith in this country's future and future of this Market it can give you pain for sure nobody can guarantee you a straight uh kind of thing but in last 40 years I have seen when things were not as good as what it is today uh things were not looking as rosy in 2000 or 92 and all still it has given 15% return compounded and you know power of compounding so better your investors know power of compounding for us to really feel the future because future you can see only with the past the past has compounded for 15% for last 40 years I have no reason to believe to say it will be even 14 and a half I would say rather 15 and half because of optimism but I would say stct to 15 only or rather consider 14 okay and 15 means you saying every 5 years it will double every 5 years so let's live first 5 years that's index will double 15% of course then you should do much better as an active participant so 22,000 will go to 44,000 next 5 years I would think in 5 years index should touch about anywhere between 40 to 45,000 thank you for watching cnvc TV 18 and do follow us on all our social media platforms for news updates and more let's go make informed decisions with Comprehensive analysis on the go strengthen your portfolio with realtime Market updates on the go let's go create effective strategies with insightful expert opinions on the go grow on the go with CNBC tv18 now scaming live 24/7 on YouTube
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