저자: InvestingMadeSimple채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
2021년 4월 영상으로, 과거 시점의 인플레이션 우려와 자산 배분 일반론을 정리한 콘텐츠다. 핵심 결론: Cathie Wood(ARK Invest)의 인플레이션 경고를 소개하며, 통화량과 유통속도가 함께 올라야 큰 인플레이션이 온다는 논리를 설명한다. 통화량(M2) 분석: M2가 1년간 27% 증가했다고 언급하며, 2조 달러 도달은 1984년, 이후 증가 속도가 빨라졌다는 점을 강조한다. 다만 통화 발행만으로는 부족하고 유통속도가 필요하다고 설명한다. 유통속도: 팬데믹 이후 M2 유통속도가 역사적 저점 수준으로 하락했다고 짚으며, 정부 입장에서는 지출 증가가 필요하다고 설명한다. CPI/PPI: CPI는 약 8만 개 품목을 추적하며, PPI는 생산자 관점의 물가다. Cathie Wood는 CPI가 1.7%(2월)에서 3~4% 범위로, PPI는 전년 대비 6~8% 범위로 가속될 것이라고 전망했다고 언급한다(PPI 월 1% 상승 언급 포함). Cathie Wood 주장 요지: 연준은 이를 용인할 것으로 보이며, 시장은 비교적 차분하다. 장기 국채 금리는 연초 0.9%에서 1.75% 부근까지 올랐다고 언급한다. 자산별 견해(일반론): 현금·채권·배당주는 인플레이션 시 불리하다고 설명. 고정금리 부채, 물가연동채(TIPS), 금·은, 비트코인 등 희소 자산, 성장주는 상대적으로 유리하다는 견해를 제시한다. 역사적 맥락: 1880년 이후 미국 인플레이션율은 초기 극단적 변동 후 점차 안정되었으며, 1970~80년대 과열과 2009년 이후 안정 추세를 언급한다. 리스크/조건: 유통속도 회복 여부가 인플레이션 확대의 전제 조건이라는 점을 강조한다. 현금 비중은 낮게 유지하라는 일반적 조언을 덧붙인다. 출연자 전망: Cathie Wood는 CPI 3~4%, PPI 6~8%를 제시했으며, 진행자는 금·비트코인·성장주 선호 관점을 공유한다.
다듬은 글
with the fed continuing to dramatically increase the money supply and economies beginning to open back up after the pandemic inflation could finally be coming our way kathy wood for mark invest predicts we will see inflation doubling from the current 1.7 percent to almost 4 very soon so the question is what does this all mean how does this impact our investments and why should we even care about inflation well as investors obviously the more we know about what to do in times of inflation or deflation the better we're going to become and ultimately the more money we're going to be able to make and the good news is that in times of inflation there are certain investments that actually do very well so this video is all things inflation and we will be looking at the recent explosion in the m2 money supply kathy woods recent warning about inflation we'll look at the investments that actually do well in times of inflation and also the investments that tend to suffer as always if you do find anything useful in the video be sure to drop a like as that's always very much appreciated okay so first up kathy woods recently spoke out about the alarming increase in the m2 money supply let's take a look uh m2 is up 27 so we've seen an acceleration and this week uh just listening to chairman powell chairman of the fed uh it seems like he's very uh focused on unemployment uh the 10 million jobs still lost relative to pre-covid so she talks about the recent big explosion in the m2 money supply and for anyone who doesn't know the money supply is measured by what's known as the m's m0 m1 and m2 m0 is all the cash in circulation plus the central bank's reserves m1 is everything that's in m0 but it also includes all the money in people's checking accounts and m2 is the most common measure of the money supply take a look so it's the m2 money supply that's one of the most watched indicators for money supply and future inflation and it's a broader measure than m1 which just included all the cash in circulation and checking deposits m2 also includes anything that's easily convertible into cash so this includes money in saving deposits money market funds mutual funds and other time deposits and this is the m2 money supply that's taken from the federal reserve website and this is a bit of a scary chart so this goes back to the 1960s and we're working in the billions of dollars so this is 2 trillion 4 trillion 6 trillion etc and you'll notice it wasn't until 1984 that in the entire history of the dollar that we got to the 2 trillion mark now it was just over 10 years that we got to 4 trillion then it was only 5 years to get to the next 2 trillion then four years to get to the next two trillion then only one year to get the next two trillion the next two trillion just came within six months and as you can see from 2020 this has been a 27 increase so 27 of all the dollars created was only created in the last one year now let's just cover one of the key misconceptions i see about inflation many people think that printing lots of money causes inflation and this isn't strictly true think about it as you saw the fed has just created trillions of dollars yet inflation is around one to two percent so this can't be true right and the reason is because money printing is only half of the equation and to get big inflation we need the other half and this is velocity and velocity is how much money is actually circulating around the economy for example if we all just sat at home stacking toilet paper and not actually spending anything then money has a velocity of zero now let's say we go out for a meal and at the end of the meal we tip the waiter the waiter then uses this money to get a taxi home and the taxi driver uses this money to get a takeaway at the end of his shift now this time the money was spent three times or a money velocity of three and so to get big inflation you need money printing but you also need people spending money and not saving so what's going on with money velocity right now good question let's see this is the velocity of the m2 money supply again taken from the federal reserve website again it goes back to 1960 and you can see it kind of hovered from this 1.6 to 1.8 ratio for quite a few decades it began to pick up in the 1990s leading up to the dot-com crash we've then started to see this downward trend into the great financial crisis and ever since then it has been dropping but you can see it's the pandemic that is the opposite of the m2 money supply and it's crashed down to these historically low levels so from the fed and the government's point of view this is bad they want you spending money and why is this it's because one person's spending is the other person's income and when you have an income you can tax it and that is how the government makes money okay so before we take a look at what kathy woods said about inflation who's actually keeping track of all of this well it's measured by the cpi the consumer price index take a look so the cpi is a measure that examines the average price movements of a basket of consumer goods and it actually tracks around 80 000 different items and this falls into eight major different consumer groups we've got clothes transportation education other goods recreation medical care food and drink and housing and this is not to be confused with the ppi which is the producer price index and this is basically the same thing it tracks the price movements of products but this time from the viewpoint of the business and not the consumer okay so that was the cpi and the ppi now let's take a look at what kathy wood recently said about this coming inflation take a look we did get some inflation uh indicators this week actually today uh the ppi came out it was much stronger than expected it was up one percent month to month uh this is not a year-over-year number one percent so annualized that would be double-digit and that does sound scary uh on a year-over-year basis i believe we're at 4.3 percent so we know that we're in the middle of what's called the base effect last year we had declining prices as we entered the covit crisis and we the the the declines lasted for several months so now year over year we're going to be comparing against negative uh numbers uh and so on the cpi we we believe and we've been saying this for some time that uh inflation will uh probably increase to the three to four percent range it was 1.7 uh in february and on the ppi we'll probably see it accelerate on a year-over-year basis to the six to eight percent range now uh the fed has said that it it's expecting this it's not going to react to it and um and we believe them uh especially given terminal's focus uh so uh and i think the markets are are taking this quite calmly actually maybe the anticipation of it caused the huge increase in the long-term treasury yield from 0.9 at the beginning of the year uh to 1.75 uh perhaps but when i uh get into the fixed income markets a little later uh we think there might have been something else behind that move so she believes the cpi will be going up from 1.7 up to 4 so that's over double and the ppi is going as high as 8 so the question is how does this impact our investments well i thought it'd be useful to include a list of investments that tend to do well in times of inflation and also the investments that tend to get negatively impacted check it out so let's take a look at the investments that tend to do well and not so well in times of high inflation starting with the not so good first up we have cash in times of high inflation cash is trash as the purchasing power is beginning to get eroded away bonds anything that has a fixed income as you're locking your money away for many many years and it's fixed this is bad because money is being eroded away dividend stocks so in general the stock market does become more volatile now i would say stocks still are a good investment but anything that has a fixed income like bonds or dividends generally becomes out of favor now what's good in times of inflation is good debt so as the debt on your property is also fixed it's also being eroded away and this is why the government likes inflation too because the government has so much debt they get to erode that debt away you can also get inflation protected bonds and these rates will rise with inflation gold and silver are a very well-known hedge against inflation as because you can't print gold and silver when there's more money buying the same amount they tend to do very well which means the new kid on the block bitcoin because of its limited supply also acts the same as gold and silver and this means this is probably really good for other kryptos too and when it comes to stocks because of inflation people want a higher return which means growth stocks tend to do a little bit better than dividend stocks so if investors believe that big inflation is coming we will begin to see outflows and inflows of the major asset classes and this is one of the reasons why i think that crypto stocks and property are doing so well right now okay to finish up i have a bit of a bonus chart which i actually found very interesting too it gives the big picture of inflation of the last 140 years check it out so this chart goes all the way back to 1880 so 140 years snapshot of the inflation rate in the us and just look how volatile it was for the first 60 years back in the 1880s it was negative 20 one year only a few years later to be plus 20 and such a volatile time to be living but as you can see as time goes on it really starts to settle down now in the last couple of generations this is when you hear that inflation got a little bit out of control in the 70s and 80s but ever since the turn of the century apart from the blip in 2009 where it got a bit out of control i would say that policy makers are starting to get control of the inflation rate but i guess only time will tell okay so bringing this all together we saw the m2 money supply is exploding right now but to get big inflation we need the other half of the equation which is money velocity it's the cpi that's the main measure that tracks inflation and this tracks the average price of around 80 000 products kathy wood has recently warned that inflation is going to be doubling over the coming year and historically some proven inflation hedges include having good debt as your debt will be eroded too gold silver and bitcoin and other hard assets stocks do become more volatile but in general they do pretty good with growth stocks doing better than dividend you can also diversify further with inflation protected bonds and remember in times of inflation cash is trash so keep your cash holdings quite low so there you are guys hope you found this video on all things inflation useful in fact just one favor to ask if you did find anything useful in the video be sure to drop a like only takes two seconds and a big thank you to everyone who does if you're not yet subscribed to the channel i invite you to click below and join us i do have some great videos coming up that you don't want to miss okay cheers guys thanks for watching and i'll see you in the next video bye for now you
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