저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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2018년 대비 아시아·글로벌 경제가 실질적으로 위축 상태라고 주장. 중국은 인구 감소·과잉 부채·부동산 과잉레버리지로 성장률이 3~6% 수준으로 둔화될 것이라 예상. 서구는 과잉 신용·부채와 포화된 수요로 구조적 문제, 인플레이션과 돈 찍기를 사회 파괴 요인으로 지목. 부의 불평등 원인으로 통화 증발에 따른 자산 가격 상승을 꼽음. 명시적 종목·지수 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
everybody talks about the recovery in the economy it all depends on the starting point if we take as a starting point 2020 at the stough of covid then yes from the lows of the covid period we've recovered but I look at a lot of different statistics and compare them to 2018 2019 because the point is in 2019 there was already a remarkable Slowdown compared to 2018 in the growth rate the economy was still growing but at a much lower rate than in 2018 so if I take 2018 and now 2024 and that's essentially 5 years I'd say the economy certainly here in Asia is below the level of 2018 certainly measured in real terms when I say real terms I mean adjust it for price in other was inflation adjusted and I do not necessarily adjust prices for the figures or according to the figures that are published by the government but according to real life experiences the other day I was ask how high is the price level compared to 2018 I said about 20 25% they said in their experience it's up something like 50% it depends on what you measure and in what country because some countries didn't have high inflation because they are still in a steep recession I mean there has been no recovery as an example in Thailand the economy is not doing well period the standards of living are okay but the economy is not doing well so it depends on the economies in China the growth rate is disappointing and two the economic activi is way below the 2018 2019 level and in the US also inflation adjusted and then we have to measure are we talking about the 1% of the population are we talking about me as an investor who has benefited from rising interest rates because I have no debts and I have deposits and now I get interest on my deposits whereas 5 years ago four years ago until 2022 I didn't get anything on my deposits and I have an investment advisory company and so so I have always a lot of liquidity but the poor people the lower income recipients who spend say 30% of their income on food they've been hurt very badly we can go and listen to conference calls by any retailer they will tell you that spending is reduced by the affordability issue people don't have enough money to spend so they are cutting down on food and they're cutting down on cosmetics and they're cutting down on everything my view about China is we had the hibernation of China Post communist takeover 1949 to say 1978 when Den shiao Bing opened up the country and initially it didn't have a huge impact because it was an experiment nobody was sure whe it would be accepted a politically and B whether the country was ready to endorse capitalism and the free market economy as it happens every country is able to adopt very quickly to the capitalistic system and the market economy simply because people individuals they have an incentive to work whereas on the socialism and capitalism nobody has an incentive to work they all pay the same wage they all get the same dress and so forth if you want to destroy anything please adopt socialism it's an ideology of severe destruction I've been to many socialist countries in my life when China began to open up it had a catchup period to the Western standards of living and that it did fantastically well for essentially 30 years from 1980 to say 2010 and the country was growing at say 7 to 10% per anim that was the structural growth at the time but now things have changed for several reasons first of all the countryes rather highly indebted individuals because they were speculating in just about everything encouraged of course by also foreign investment Banks and number two they are overleveraged in real estate and three the population is now no longer growing some estimate that the population will shank by something like 40 50% over the next 40 years I'm slightly more optimistic but it will not grow at the same rate as before this statistically proven because they had this one child policy for a long time so now the population will shrink it's not a total economic disaster because you could through productivity Improvement still have growth in the standards of living but it is statistically the growth rate in China will be maximum in the next say 20 30 years three to say 6% perom and no longer 8 to 11 12% peran that is over for good so the Chinese economy I think it can recover but there's another problem that has come up the engine of growth in this recovery phase are exports and the exports are doing extremely well to other emerging economies but you understand each time China sells a motorcycle in Thailand or in Indonesia or a car in Thailand or Indonesia or other products it hurts the local manufacturing Industries so the countries are worried about this huge wave of exports from China to their own countries now it's not as bad as people make up but politically I haven't read anything positive about China for the last two years the American Media thinks that China is a villain that China has to be contained that China has to be embar and all kinds of restrictions have to be imposed on China and whatever you read China they build railroads in Laos Cambodia the American Media goes and tells China is destroying Laos and Cambodia what when the Americans what did they do they carpet bomed Laos and Cambodia and use that agent orange I mean the difference is the Asians they can't believe how bad the media is in America and the American Media has now also essentially forced the European media to be very negative about China you go anywhere in the world people talk negatively about China when all of them have Goods that come from China in their kitchen in the bathrooms in the cars in everything there the Chinese production for me as an economist and as a historian the last 40 years in the western world have been any but normal because we have this huge credit growth debt growth on all levels of society and when you analyze debt what is a debt it is essentially borrowing money to advance some spending whether it's consumption or spending on military goods or services or whatever but you advance it and one day the debt burden becomes relatively High so consumption then drops off and sometimes it goes negative and I think we are in the Western World in a state where the demand the markets are saturated okay now you can say well a company invents a new product like mobile phones and everybody will buy mobile phones correct with new products this happens but I'm sorry to say most of these mobile phones are manufactured somewhere else than in the US and in Germany and so forth in fact just today there was an announcement that for the first time in history Volkswagen is a big German conglomerate they own a lot of different brands and it's a very large automobile manufacturer that essentially comes from Germany that strived before the Nazis and strived during the Nazi period and off and so for but the point is for the first time they want to close a factory in Germany when when you think about it it's an incredible thing because Germany used to be very efficient in the production of goods they always had a trade surplus and they were very good in export markets because they were so competitive and now for the last 5 to 10 years we have the Socialists in power in Germany and the greens they're not interested in doing something good for the economy they're interested in destroying everything that has built up weals because they're anti-ri they want to destroy the lives of the Rich and I'm glad I mean for me the afd and I know some of the people that are in the leading position of the afd I like the afd I think it's a great Central oriented party I don't call them rightwing the rightwing has been invented by the Socialist because they want to move the right the middle of the political Arena to the left so for them normal left and then they have the extreme left and everything that is Central within the political spectrum is rightwing and they condemn the right Wings when in fact for me the afd and we have the same in Switzerland the SB are not right enough I would like to have much I would have a party that is far more rightwing far more a brief contemplation of what happened during the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia in 1918 and thereafter is very interesting because the Russian economy was not doing particularly well and the labor force wasn't particularly happy but at the same time the farmers in Russia in general did very well relatively speaking but when the Communist came they took the land away from the farmers and the farmers could still remain on their Farms but they had to deliver the products to the state and they could only keep very little for them themselves so it really destroyed the incentive of farmers to buy new machinery and to do anything and what then happened is that the production of agricultural Goods produced dropped 70% that's why we had massive famines in Ukraine and Western Russia during the years that followed the revolution in 1918 this is a fact those a fact in China and anybody who tells me well we have to take the wealth away from the rich well I want to explain to you what brings about wealth inequality the major reason for wealth inequality aside from the fact that some people can run faster than others they're smarter at doing business than others they're better at doing business than others and they are better painters than other people they're better musicians they are geniuses who play the piano and others like you and me would be able to play the piano or the violin and so so we have to accept that there are huge differences among humans nowadays everybody is the same has the same Talent OR governments wants to make everybody look the same anyway we have to accept that there are different talents in the world and number two money printing is the greatest evil that exists in a society I want to expl explain to you why let's say you and I are born on the same day we go to school at the same time we finish our studies at the same time and we are about equally bad at school and then we go to university and both of us don't particularly excel at University so we are about the same but you you come from a family that has large real estate holdings in Prime locations in a European city or in New York or in Florida or wherever it is and at the same time your grandfather was a Aid collector of modern paintings Modern Art picassos and money and man and so forth and so on so you have this huge collection of 300 paintings in your house and you also inherit Assets in the form of stocks bonds and so Force I who is about the same qualification as you at University and z i I have nothing I don't inherit anything in fact I have maybe some debts student debts maybe I didn't have but I'm just saying so the money is then printed by defense your assets go up massively massively and I have no assets what can go up for me nothing so this creates a huge wealth inequality that's why I'm always telling everybody I as an investor as someone who assets I applae money printing because it increased the value of my assets well one day they will implode and I think we're close to that day aside from that but as an economist as a historian as a social Observer inflation I tell you is a disaster for a society it will destroy a society sooner or later it doesn't take long maximum 10 years
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