저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 향후 1~3년 디플레이션 리스크가 인플레이션보다 크다고 보며, 혁신 기술 투자와 비트코인 장기 상승을 강조한다. 거시 경제: 원자재 가격이 30~80% 하락했고 중국·유럽 경기침체, 미국 경기침체 가능성을 언급한다. 나이키 재고가 북미 44%, 운송중 재고 85% 증가해 소매업체 대폭 할인이 예상되며 월마트·타겟도 할인을 언급했다고 한다. 디플레이션 구조: 단기는 경기순환적 디플레이션, 장기는 혁신에 따른 '좋은 디플레이션'과 구형 제품이 사라지는 '나쁜 디플레이션'이 공존한다고 본다. 고용도 기업의 인력 비축 때문에 향후 악화 가능성이 있다고 전망한다. 연준 전망: 연준이 후행지표인 CPI와 고용만 보고 있어 실수를 하고 있으며 결국 피벗(금리 인하 전환)할 것이라고 주장한다. 영국 연기금 유동성 위기를 금리 급등의 신호로 제시한다. 혁신 투자: 유전체 시퀀싱, 로보틱스, 에너지 저장, AI, 블록체인 등 5개 플랫폼(14개 기술)이 지수 성장 궤도에 있다고 본다. 기존 패시브·벤치마크는 과거 성과 기반이라 혁신 자산을 별도 배분해야 한다고 권고한다. 비트코인: 2015년 10만 달러 투자가 현재 약 760만 달러가 되었다고 언급하며, 비트코인 1개당 100만 달러 가치 전망을 유지한다. 비트코인은 전통금융과의 무기 경쟁이며 금융혁명의 중심이라고 주장한다. 혁신 투자 목표 수익률은 연 20~25%, 투자기간 5년 이상이다. 리스크: 혁신 투자에도 위험이 있으나 투자하지 않는 위험이 더 크다고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
we are we have a contrarian point of view here we think the bigger risk in the next one to three years is deflation not inflation and it's both good and bad deflation we're already seeing cyclical deflation in the pipeline we've got commodity prices down 30 40 even oil 30 40 50 60 80 percent and it's because China's in recession Europe's effectively in recession and we think the U.S is in recession so you've got deflation coming in the pipeline and we have a massive inventory build up that is actually shocking Nike for its recent quarter reported that its sales were up three percent and its inventories were up 44 in North America its inventories were up 68 and the inventory in transit is up 85 percent this is going to overwhelm retailers and the only way they'll clear their shelves is to discount aggressively we're already hearing Walmart Target and others talking about discounting we think cyclically we've got deflation and then secularly meaning longer term we believe we have deflation because of innovation now that's good deflation you cut the price of something units will increase so we think we're going to see some booms in categories of innovation but at the same time if we're right on that there are a lot of products in the old world that are going to be Obsolete and they'll have to cut prices that's bad deflation so we see deflation frankly all over the place and the FED right now is looking at two lagging indicators it's looking at CPI inflation and I just told you what's in the pipeline and it's looking at employment [ Kathy Wood the founder CEO and CIO of arkhanvest discusses about the investments in disruptive Technologies the importance of research for investment deflationary signals feds on certain decisions and the bullish forecast of Arc invest for the most traded cryptocurrency Bitcoin reveals her take on disruptive World Order and why she believes the FED will ultimately pivot one of the reasons I've been drawn to Innovation is actually a great leveler we have never seen the amount of innovation that is taking place now there's an absolute explosion of it the seeds for all of it were planted in the 20 years that ended in the Tekken Telecom bubble but the Technologies weren't ready for what we're talking about now ai breakthroughs really didn't start happening until 2012.
well after 2000 and even cloud computing didn't happen until AWS Amazon web services in in 2006 we're seeing five major Innovation platforms genomic sequencing robotics energy storage artificial intelligence and blockchain Technology they involve 14 different Technologies and we believe they're moving into exponential growth trajectory so what we say to our companies and to our clients is get on the right side of change there is so much happening now it is the great leveler but if you don't get on the right side of change you're going to be left in a a disrupted World Order sure there are risks in Innovation but there are risks in not being there and we think those risks are growing uh by the day Kathy also highlights her perspective on the macroeconomic situation going on and the chances of a recession in U.S and around the world wood shared that she bought one hundred thousand dollars worth of bitcoin in 2015 and that is currently worth about 7.6 million dollars and I say all the time Innovation solves problems Innovation solves problems and we have a lot of problems and actually Innovation gains more traction during tough times because consumers and businesses if they're afraid they're willing to change the way they behave there's a lot of inertia in human behavior and they're willing to change in terms of an unmet need that's why I found it Arc I saw the traditional Asset Management World focused on public equities going past it and at the same time we saw this explosion of innovation you know the seeds were planted a long time ago the Technologies are ready now the costs are low enough it's just so ironic the the because of what happened in the Tekken Telecom bust people won't go near a lot of innovation these days that's a good thing that's a good thing from a portfolio manager's point of view I know I know we're in we are not in a hype phase but I do feel the on unmet need that we are filling is innovation as a special asset category because benchmarks and passive are all based on backward looking indicators the stocks in those portfolios are there because of their past success if we're right and these five major platforms which involve 14 different Technologies are going to disturb if not destroy the traditional world order if we are right then it is imperative that investors have I would say a very good allocation to Innovation however one wants to Define it to Innovation so that they're looking at the future and you know writing on the coattails or writing the coattails of these new technologies and these exponential growth trajectories that we're going to that we believe are going to be transformative for the world Kathy Wood seems quite confident over her saying that she added my background is both an economics and finance so I feel very confident in what I'm saying this is the first Global private meaning no government oversight digital rules-based monetary system when I'm explaining it like that I ask everyone to listen to each of those words each one of them is very important this is one of the most profound Innovations of our time the return profile again this is similar to our public funds the but the return expectation is higher we have a five-year investment time Horizon generally I shouldn't say generally always five years plus the return expectation is somewhere in the 20 to 25 percent per year range now for our ETFs in the public Equity markets these are more mature companies that number is 15 so again this is just filling out uh you know a space that is where we should rightly be because we are so focused exclusively focused on disruptive innovation Arc invest followed a bullish outlook for bitcoin's valuation in the starting of this year by doubling down in their forecast a couple of weeks ago as the firm is expecting a one million dollar per coin valuation in the upcoming years and uh employment I think what's happened there recently companies had so much trouble hiring during covid that they have decided to hoard labor and even though business is is kind of fraying at the edges they're keeping their employees because they don't want to go through that again if we're right on what this inventory glut is going to do to margins we're probably going to see some deterioration in employment as well so the FED will pivot we just saw a liquidity crisis in the UK Pension funds because the increase in interest rates has been so rapid led by the FED Pension funds were offsides in terms of their derivatives and there was a run there was a run margin calls this has happened just recently and that is a sign that there's a liquidity crisis Brewing out there because interest rates have moved up too fast we think the FED has is now making a mistake earlier this month in an interview with Bloomberg Kathy Woods Ark and vest mentioned Bitcoin is an arms race against traditional finance and asset classes moreover The Firm looks confident of bitcoin's ability to be at the heart of a revolution in money that had its multiple use cases so do you agree with Kathy Wood's take on disruptive World Order thank you
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