저자: Kevin · 외국인
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12월 FOMC 의사록을 근거로 연준이 금융여건 개선을 통해 고용 하락을 막으려 한다고 해석. 2025년 12월 BLS 고용 4개월 이동평균이 약 1만 명으로 저조하며, 10월 가구조사 공백으로 1월 9일 고용보고서와 개정치가 핵심 변수. 시장은 금리인하 확률을 대체로 낮게(생일 기준 약 16%) 보고 있고, 주식시장 상승이 고용 유지의 전제라고 주장. 1월 9일 고용지표를 중요 이벤트로 제시.
다듬은 글
You need to mark your calendar for the most important date happening within the next two weeks and it has everything to say about this market including what the Federal Reserve just said. Well, actually, we're about to go through what the Federal Reserve just said because we got the Fed minutes for the December meeting and it just amplifies what happens on this date coming up.
This date has absolutely nothing to do with the fund raise closing for House Hack tomorrow which is cool. We're excited about that. We're releasing our AI app. It's super cool. You know, yesterday was showing the screenshot. We raised 3. roughly about 3.8 million dollars in December as of yesterday.
That has jumped to 4.5 as of this morning and I think based on what I'm seeing here we're we're about to cross five. So, here. Yeah, that number is showing at 4.8 right now. Pretty incredible. But anyway, let's ignore House Hack for a moment and the AI coming out and understand this calendar right here.
So, what does this tell us? It tells us January 9th, the employment situation 8:30 a.m. release. Be there, be square, mark your calendar. Why does it matter? Well, it matters because A, the Federal Reserve just said it matters in their minutes. We're going to be going through these. But I want you to see this point blank up front.
This is a simple synopsis of the labor situation. On January 9th, we are going to get a full month of December collections. Okay? This means for household survey, not House Hack, for household surveys, this will be the first full household survey released since September collections that were done in September and then were reconciled and released, right?
Uh so, that means we don't actually have a household survey that we can rely on at all for October because it's blank. There was no household survey done. So, basically households didn't get a phone call going, "Hey, you got a job?" You know, that's different from the payroll survey which is the Bureau of Labor Statistics calling businesses or getting surveys back from businesses saying, "Hey, how many employees do you have?" The reason they do two different surveys is because the payrolls report where they call employers to say how many employees you have could double count employees.
Because if you work at electrician A and electrician B, both electricians might report you as an employee. But in your home, you only report yourself once. Yeah, I got a job. Doesn't matter how many jobs you have. Just matters that you have a job or not. Anyway, that's why there are two different surveys.
And what's interesting is we did not get a full set of collections in November. We got half because the government was half shut down. We got no data in October. So, that means we're flying blind uh all the way through basically January 9th on that household survey. That household survey is going to be really interesting because it's basically going to fill in October, November, December.
Three months, an entire quarter of households data is what we're really expecting to get color on on January 9th where they've actually had a full like, well, six to sevenish weeks to actually finish collecting their household survey and processing it which is great. Not saying the government data is accurate, just saying there's a lot of weight on this.
But it's not just that. We're also going to get revisions. We'll get revisions on the November jobs. Technically, it'll be the first revision on the job November jobs release that we got. We'll get our first actual revision on the October jobs revision. Should be the second. We'll get our second revision on September.
Should be the third and final. But again, the government shutdown screwed everything up. Now, why do these revisions matter? Well, they matter because of our four week or sorry, four month moving average. These are our four week I keep saying week. I'm thinking too much as trading stocks. Like alpha reports all over my brain.
But anyway, the four month moving average here on payrolls data is -26,000 because we had a revision down to -26,000. We had a revision down to 108,000 positive in September. -105 in October though heavily weighted by the government layoffs in October. Then in November, we bounced back to 64,000 jobs.
So, if we look at that on a four week moving average basis, we just add that together and divide it. I guess I said it again. Whatever, you know what I mean at this point. You get to about 10,000 jobs on average per month. That's pretty bad. And now in fairness, that's that is with the government. But that's pretty clearly below Jerome Powell's target of 20,000 for a labor break even.
And it's even worse when you take Jerome Powell's words because J Powell's words are if the BLS says 40K, assume at . Ugh. a $. Because J Powell's words are if the BLS says 40K, assume -20K is the actual. So, you're taking off 60,000 jobs off of what the BLS is saying. Well, the last four months BLS report is showing 10K which if you applied the Jerome Powell logic to it, would mean we'd we're actually at about negative 50,000 jobs.
-50K on Jerome's logic. Okay? Not great. Uh so, we're going to get a lot of color on that January 9th date. Now, what's interesting is if you look at what Bloomberg Intelligence is saying, they're actually commenting that the SAHM rule would have likely triggered if we actually collected the October household survey.
Mostly because education, health care, and AI are the only sectors growing. And if you jump on over to what the charts are showing us, we can go to the real-time SAHM indicator and we see the first ever false flag which was last August during the Japanese carry trade crisis. This caught a lot of people off guard.
We thought this was the beginning of the unemployment cycle. It didn't come. You got Donald Trump got elected and we got this big tailwind of hiring and the unemployment rate actually fell and the SAHM rule fell which was fantastic. It was great for the economy. Now, people are saying that if we actually collected the October households data, we would trigger it again.
Now, maybe the rule sucks because now all of a sudden it's been wrong once before. So, maybe it'll be wrong again. And that's true. A lot of people are holding out hope for that including what the Fed just said in the minutes which we'll hit in just a moment. The Fed obviously also paying close attention to liquidity because we are seeing more and more of these Federal Reserve repo operations than you would traditionally have seen over the last, well, frankly, four years.
It's like you usually don't see lines here and all of a sudden we're seeing a ton of lines here. It's just a way of saying that liquidity is tighter. It's a way that the Federal Reserve is trying to brand that, "Oh, well, this just means we're getting right where we want to be with our reserves regime." Other people are like, "Nah, man.
The the financial plumbing is running dry and it's just a matter of time before something breaks." Whether that's a bank or private credit, nobody Does that lead to a cascade of layoffs? Everybody's got some kind of doomsday you know, opinion on what's going to happen there. Nobody knows. That's that's the bottom line.
But what we do know is what the Fed is saying. So, . They say, "Oh, well, you know, see investors are they're attributing the firmness in repo rates to a decline in liquidity because of large Treasury debt issues." In other words, the federal government keeps printing Literally what the Federal Reserve here is saying.
But you know, what what are you going to do? So, anyway, then you've got while usage of these operations has increased recently, there have been days where a large volume of repo trades occurred well above the operations minimum bid suggesting reluctance by some potential participants to engage. This is typically because when you go borrow from the Fed's emergency sort of repo operations facility, their standing facility, there's a little bit of a stigma associated with it that, "Oh, no.
Like, is your bank or your financial institution in trouble? Why are you going to the banking window? Did you get margin called? You know, kind of like the rumor everybody saw yesterday with film with silver, which I thought was bogus. Still looks to me like it's bogus. Probably just had to do with margin requirements changing at the CME.
Don't forget that. That is a lesson. They can always change the margin rules on you, right? Great investing lesson to always remember. And if you don't have debt, you don't have to worry about it. Like House Hackerr myself. House Hackerr has convertible bond debt, but no bank debt. No bank debt. And I have no personal debt either.
But anyway, uh several other indicators of liquidity in short-term funding market including volatility uh pointed to reserves being within the Apple range. Basically, they're saying, "Guys, don't worry. You see all those lines on the chart? Just ignore it. Everything is fine." Don't worry about the FOMO or the TOMO.
It's fine. Just FOMO back in the markets. Now, one of the reasons they really want you to kind of to FOMO into markets and they don't want to stoke any kind of panic is because if you actually go through the minutes, you'll find the note here. Listen to this. Uh on balance, we expect expect real GDP to be faster on balance through 2028.
Why? Primarily reflecting greater projected support from financial market conditions. Oh, what are financial market conditions? The stonk market. Companies willingness to lend to companies when their stocks are high and stocks going up, it creates financial liquidity and creates financially loose conditions, which beget more spending, whether it's frivolous or uh inappropriately invested or not.
Higher markets beget more spending and it's good for GDP. And the Fed's kind of like, "Hey, guys, don't worry about our our plumbing's fine. Everything's fine with the plumbing, okay? We just spent billions of dollars at the Federal Reserve making sure our plumbing is fine. We even showed Donald Trump our plumbing.
It is fine. Please take us for this word. So, they want us to believe that everything is fine. Of course, that's their job because they want the stock market to stay up because if the stock market stays up, GDP grows. Cool, no recession, no labor recession. Ironically, the Fed pumping the stock market, which is exactly what we talked about, you know, back on December 10th, but like the Fed pumping the stock market is exactly what they need to do to keep the labor market from rolling over.
Now, is it just as Mr. Myron at the Fed says, "Forestall the inevitable recession?" Yes. And of course, Donald Trump wants to do everything in his power to make sure there's no recession under his watch. That's why now you got Waller coming out going, "Yeah, I see a case for reducing rates 100 basis points." You know, he's starting to sound like Myron cuz he wants the job.
Freaking obvious. Uh anyway, so they talk about this, you know, as a result of this higher or increased GDP and higher financial markets, they think that the unemployment rate will go up. All right, sorry, the unemployment rate will fall. Employment will go up. Okay, so now that's really interesting because what the Fed is basically saying is, "Hey, we think the unemployment rate is going to go down, which is good, right?
But the only reason we think the unemployment rate is going to go down is because financial markets are up. So, if financial markets go down, then the unemployment rate might not go down. It might stay up or go up even more and actually trigger the Sahm rule. Again, Bloomberg Intelligence tells us that they think the Sahm rule would have already triggered had we collected the October uh households data.
But unfortunately, if you look at, here it is, household data, and then you look at the employed level over here, you're going to find for October it's literally blank because nobody was in the office to pick up the phone to actually call people. Anyway, why does this matter? It matters a lot because it puts more pain, if you will, on top of that January 9th data.
And that's why that January 9th data is a day that I say make sure you mark your calendar for because it's so important. Now, obviously, also mark your calendar for tomorrow because it's the House Hackerr fundraising deadline. And we're also at the same time, I hate doing, you know, sort of a double expiration like this, but we're we're going to raise the price on the the courses at meetkevin.com as well as the Reinvest AI.
Mostly because we're releasing the app. And the coupon is literally called release the app. So, when this app comes out, we raise the price for for anybody who wants to join after that. You know, it is fair that people who joined before the app is out get a better deal than people who joined after the app is out.
But anyway, okay, it's good. So, what else did we see in the actual minutes? Okay, so the minutes had a lot about employment in them and also inflation. The biggest piece or concern that they made about inflation was this fear that, "Hey, if we don't come across as serious on 2%, then markets could end up misinterpreting that we are no longer committed to 2%." So, that's the only reason you're seeing people not wanting to cut rates.
Right now, markets are only pricing in about a 16% chance that we're going to get a rate cut on my birthday, which is a little bit disappointing to me. I was really hoping for a rate cut on my birthday. It actually just fell even more. It's only like 15.5% now. So, unfortunately, my birthday is going to be marked by a gloomer day for the Fed.
I'll just go on vacation after that to make me feel better. But anyway, we are pricing in probably about a 57% chance of two to three rate cuts. Certainly two. 27 It's more than probably more than that. It's about a coin toss right now as to whether or not we're going to get um uh two or three rate cuts next year, but you all know it's way too far out to really look at that.
What's much more interesting is this. Take a look at this. Most participants noted that a move towards a more neutral policy would help forestall the possibility of a major deterioration in the labor market. So, in other words, like they're so acutely aware about poopy doopy happening uh on or in the labor market that they're cutting to forestall that collapse basically in the labor market.
And I I can't help but think when I hear the word forestall, I can't help but think they mean kick the can down the road. But in fairness to them, uh forestall actually means to prevent. So, you know, definitionally, they're cutting to try to prevent the labor market from rolling over because they realize, as they said before, this is not news, "The downside risks to employment have increased in recent months and the downside risks to employment have risen in recent months." See, they they say the same thing numerous times because they want you to be really clear that the only reason they're cutting is because not because they're not worried about inflation.
They are worried about inflation. But because they think all of a sudden you're going to see the labor market fall off a cliff. Now, right now, the market forecasters are forecasting that we're actually going to get a good jobs report January 9th, which would be fantastic. Now, obviously, we'll break it down, but if we can get a good jobs report next month to the tune of maybe 50 to 60,000 jobs, I'm going to pull it up right now to see what the forecast is.
That would be great. We'll get CPI after that on the 13th, but it'll be less interesting, frankly, than the change in payrolls. Yeah, we're forecasting 55,000 non-farm payrolls. Private payrolls, 73. Now, we were supposed to get the weekly jobs data from ADP today, but we're not going to get the weekly ADP jobs data today, which I thought was a little bit unfortunate.
I kind of like woke up this morning and like, "Oh, I'm kind of excited to see the the ADP numbers because even Bloomberg had it in their sort of like calendar of things coming. They're like, "Oh, it's coming." And then they yoinked it and I'm like, "Why they yoink it? And where's the data? How come nobody's talking about the data?" I was looking for it this morning.
Uh and uh it actually turns out that if you look at their last weekly release, which was their last weekly press release, the ADP did the company did say that they would wait until the next full monthly ADP report. So, you know, that'll come out. Now, the next full monthly ADP report, let's see here.
I'll let me see if I have a forecast for that one because that could be kind of cool to look at as well. Uh and in the meantime, if you have any questions, by the way, about investing in House Hackerr, remember [email protected]. I personally can't wait to be done with the pitch. And like I don't want to sell any more of the stock because I think our AI is about to freaking kill it.
I just found a deal, by the way. I'm going to read this ADP number out here, but I just found a deal through the app. I was going to make a video on the app. And then I'm like, "No, I need to write an offer on this deal instead." I got so excited about it. So, the current survey for the ADP report for December is actually also 50,000.
Now, that comes out on January 7th. So, we are going to get 7th and 9th, we'll get data right there, which you know, should be exciting to get. So, we'll see. But until then, you know, to me, not a lot of negative catalyst. Not a surprise that markets are kind of I mean, like I look at like Meta today, 667.
It's like you get a little bit of fun at the beginning for some trading and then it's just flat the rest of the day. It's like everybody's on vacation. I'm trying to get the Qs nicely back to 627. You know, let's get a little bit of pump in before the job numbers. Why? Cuz if we get bad job numbers, I think we want a little meat on the bone.
You know what I'm saying? Like I I I don't want the economy to fall off a cliff. Uh I I don't mind that AI keeps booming. Maybe I'm a little biased. Now, I got an AI startup. I'm like, "Hell, no problem. Please, keep cranking." So, anyway, I just like putting my cards on the table. Uh but anyway, hopefully that's exciting and insightful to you.
And uh we'll see you next one. Remember, this video is not a solicitation. Go to househackerr.com to read the offering circular or reinvest.com. It is exactly the same company. You can buy our AI there as well. And if you want to join the Meet Kevin Alpha report, you can do that over at meetkevin.com. Thanks for watching. , a .
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