저자: Kevin · 외국인
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은행 파산·은 폭락 우려는 마진콜 등 소음이며 채권시장상 실제 위기 신호는 없다고 봄. 금·은 대비 S&P500 괴리와 중국 은 수출허가 영향을 언급. 연준 1월 금리인하 가능성 16.1%로 하락, AI 지출로 GDP 견조. 마진부채 1.2조 달러 사상 최고, 월스트리트 전망은 낙관적이라 역발상으로 경계. 테슬라는 인도량 감소와 손실 요인으로 단기 약세 전망, 적정가치 대비 큰 하락 여지 주장.
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Well, today is one heck of a crazy day because you've got some insanity happening in the silver market which is leading to talk about a potential bank failure. While at the same time, the president of Iran in response to protests going on in Tehran is suggesting that they're at war with the United States, Israel, and Europe.
I guess maybe we should have finished the negotiations after Operation Midnight Hammer, which Donald Trump and Carolyn Levit said they would, but then that next week negotiation never came. But forget about that for a moment. What's actually going on? Because there's so much noise today from not just the silver and banking drama, but also drama with the Federal Reserve.
We've got minutes coming out tomorrow from the last Fed meeting along with uh the weekly uh job numbers from ADP coming out tomorrow. We've got year-end potential profit taking. We've got also Tesla numbers to talk about because at the end of this week, we're going to get Tesla delivery numbers and Tesla is doing what I call the end phase.
There's a lot to unpackage here. So, let's just slowly go through it all and break it down. So very first things first, this is important to look at. Right now, the S&P 500, which is the orange line, is lagging substantially behind the rise in gold, which is the black line. I don't know why they didn't choose gold for gold, but whatever.
Uh and and the silver line, which appropriately is silver. So, uh I can't I wrote I can't help but feel that safe haven assets memeing is a risky signal. And then you can see this divergence in these sort of normalized numbers here. You can see the divergence where usually gold and silver align with the S&P 500.
They've really sort of wedged open right here. Right? Look at this giant wedge that you've gotten. Uh where gold has has really rallied, which is something that you can see happen before a recession. So it's not the best of signals. And then of course now you've got this silver uh euphoria which part of the silver euphoria and and rally has a lot to do with China.
See China is the world's largest consumer of silver. Uh and uh starting about October 15th they pre-announced that they were going to start requiring export licenses to be able to export silver. Now Bloomberg says that China is not a major net exporter but not a major major net exporter means they are a exporter like net exporter of silver.
So even though they consume the world's most amount of silver they are an exporter of silver and by having export licenses they could kind of signal that hey we want to keep some of this for ourselves. And it sort of goes back to the whole like critical minerals drama. Like remember when China was basically like, "Hey, we're going to have export licenses on critical minerals." Then Donald Trump is like, "Fine, I'll invest in MP materials." And then MP material goes from like $15 to $80.
And then I remember in my course member live streams for my alpha report, I'm like, "This is going to 100 bucks." Went to $104. That morning in the course member live stream, I go, "This sucker is going down. It's going down fast. Get out." Sometimes a negative call is just as important as a positive call, right?
Uh and the stock's at like $52 now. I think it's going to to 31. But it shows you that that sort of meme stuff happens in response to China and its export license drama. So in some regard, the drama with China around export licenses with critical minerals for shadowed this silver squeeze because now you've got China going, "Well, we want export licenses on silver." And even though they're not that big of an exporter, they're somewhat of an uh silver exporter.
And therefore, you get this silver squeeze which is leading to massive large uh massive losses from companies that are hedging against a rise in silver prices, which is usually not very volatile. You know, typically when you have something that's low vol that all of a sudden becomes really volatile, you risk margin calls.
And that's why there were a lot of rumors circulating. Uh, and I don't I don't like to give credence to a lot of these these rumors because I see these rumors and I said it this morning in my alpha report. I'm like, look, the news of today is everybody's freaking out about this like, oh, a bank is going under or whatever.
And I said in my alpha report, this is probably bull crap and you're going to know, you know, pretty fast if it's bull crap or not. We don't know. We don't know. It could be accurate, but it's one of those things where, you know, it's easy to circulate stuff like this, especially with AI these days.
But basically, there was this story that was circulating that uh so I pulled a screenshot up here. The story that's circulating is uh at the time the story is written 11:01 a.m. Eastern US time on Sunday, there are reports claiming a systemically important bank, a major player in silver futures failed to pay its margin call and they were liquidated.
uh the bank involved has been one of the largest players in the precious metals derivative market and it blew past every risk limit, breached and breached every covenant and exhausted every line of credit. Like even the grammar isn't that great. Like I hate to say it, but like I looked at this and I'm like I've got a double space over here.
I've got, you know, a missing capitalization over here. you know, new grammarians will say it's okay to start a sentence with and, but, but, you know, older writers, like probably people actually writing these reports won't start a sentence with an and. Uh, typically, you know, younger writers might start a sentence with and.
This is a big debate. I don't know why we're going into a grimarian debate, but anyway, this is a big thing that people are talking about. Uh, oh yeah, and then I have this up. This is totally unrelated, but I don't know. Maybe people are fleeing silver and they're throwing money into house hack. But, uh, I was showing this on my course live stream.
Just so you know what this is. This was just these were just inflows because we're ending our fund raise for for House Hack. These were just our our inflows, not rental revenues or AI income, but uh, December's been great. I mean, we're almost at $4 million of inflows. Uh, I would say 98% of this is is fundraising.
A couple little deposits are in there or not, but uh, the fund raise for House Hack has been really good. So, I don't know. May maybe that's why the market's selling down is everybody is fleeing uh you know the markets 75 bips on the cues right now at least could get worse who knows uh or the silver market oh my gosh it's rolling over or whatever and they're diversifying into house act not investment advice not a solicitation every investment has risk I don't know but it you know that was one of the things that started a rumor mill this morning you know copper is still doing fine and a lot of precious metals have absolutely been killing it you know uh I mean look at palladium palladium's up under 12% year to date, but today it's down 16%.
You don't usually see this kind of volatility in metals. So that's why like there is some idea or argument that yeah, maybe when you have so much volatility, you could create margin calls that lead to a cascading effect and a bank failure. But in my opinion, if we were actually seeing a bank failure unfolding right now, insiders would be trading it.
We would be seeing the market dump way more than this. And this yield curve would move because people would fly into the 2-year. You know, we're not seeing that. And so to me, if I go look at the 2-year right now, the 2-year is down two basis points. The 10ear is down two basis points. If we were seeing some form of a crisis, like some kind of a uh, you know, banking crisis style shock or whatever, we would see the yield curve skyrocket.
Right now, look right here at the banking crisis era right here. The yield curve rapidly steepened and uninverted because what happens practically is the 2-year plummets and the 10-year doesn't go down that much. And so the curve widens in English. What happened in the last banking crisis ain't happening right now.
Kevin, ain't ain't the word. I know. So anyway, I like I'm not seeing signs in the market that actually say this is anything other than just sort of like meme style momentum, like a GameStop style momentum that's slowing down in the face of new margin requirements that went into effect today on the 29th that were announced on Friday, right?
It kind of aligns perfectly. Like sure, there's some drama talk from Iran, but those are drama mamas. There's always drama talk out of Iran, right? Like I don't think this is anything to get your panties in a nod over. Uh, I've got silver over here down, you know, uh, 8.7%. But I mean, look at the meme it's done.
This is insane volatility. Now, you know, this is why you have to be careful of Twitter, uh, you know, X, whatever you want to call it. But like, Poly Market Money posts and they get like 1.6,000 likes on this. They post this odds of bank failure by January 31st, 71%. And so every idiot and their mom, you know, sees those charts and they're like, "Oh my god, honey, 71% chance of a bank failure.
Oh no, get your money out of the banks." And like, you know, that's the that's the noob. And then the pro looks at this and they're like, "Dude, what's the volume on this?" And so when you zoom in, it's literally in their screenshot. The volume is $800, which means some jackass, you know, bet like $400 on a bank failure.
He basically bet against himself and bought up the order book to basically guarantee a bank failure with $400. So, this is the downside of very illquid markets. This, by the way, is why Robin Hood loves these markets. Robin Hood and Poly Market and these companies love betting markets because you could go bet on the most arcane garbage and there's no liquidity and guess who makes most of the money?
The brokers, the Robin Hoods, the Poly Markets, they make all the money on the spread. Why? It's because that's why. Yeah, it's because that's why. So anyway, uh you know, sure enough, when you then actually go look at the odds of a bank failure and the volume has actually increased, somebody put another $400 in, basically took the opposite end of the trade and bet it all the way down to 9%.
So it's probably like undervalued now. It's it's so stupid because if you go out to March 31st where there's actually a little bit more volume, $20,000 of volume, you're at about a 26%. It's all fugazi. It's all fugazi. It's all noise. It's all annoying. I don't see anything right now in the market that's saying this is actually like a real issue right now.
Other than it's just anti-meing. That's what we've got going on here. Anti-meing along with, you know, Elon's like, "Oh, this is not good. Our input costs are going up." Yeah. Elon also got his fair share of hate today. uh which is worth talking about Tesla just a little bit because Tesla's going to report delivery numbers uh at the um at the end of the week.
We'll talk about Tesla in just a moment though. I did want to talk briefly about first the Fed and year-end price targets uh and then we'll talk Tesla. So, first of all, Federal Reserve right now, we are down to a 16.1% chance that we a, which I'm a little bit disappointed about. So, what I'll probably have to do is I'll probably have to go on like a Disney vacation or something uh to make myself feel better because we're not going to get rate cuts.
But that's okay because it means the economy is booming. I think I mean we pretty much all are of the same mindset that the reason the rate cut odds have plummeted is because GDP came in so high for the quarter. Why is GDP coming in so high? Oh, we should look at the Atlanta Fed real GDP, too. Well, it's because of artificial intelligence spent.
We already know this. Goldman Sachs tells us bluntly if it weren't for artificial intelligence we would see an absolute collapse in GDP. Right now the forecast by the way for Q4 uh Q3 came in at like 4.3%. Q4 estimates are at 3%. A lot of this is as we say uh based on artificial intelligence spend. It's these are really really high numbers and and the spend is wild and that's why you know a lot of people are jumping on the bandwagon of data centers in space.
I don't mind I'm an investor in SpaceX but I think it's looney beans. hink the chip investments are overblown. Uh I've been saying that since 2024 and I've not been saying that that means sell the chip stocks. I'm just saying like at some point it's going to U-turn because we're not going to hit artificial general intelligence.
I that is a stake I will put in the ground. We're not going to AGI. So that's why I think Sam Alman, you know, will falter because he's spending like AGI is coming tomorrow and it's it's a bad investment. That's why we're so excited about like what we call real or practical artificial intelligence. So I look at companies like now service now or UiPath which I think is a bargain right now uh or Palunteer as companies providing actual artificial intelligence for companies.
You know we're uh launching our AI at a very small scale. We've got a coupon code expiring uh soon for our AI. So if you want to get in before we drop it, you could get lifetime access to our real estate AI. And co and the development phases or whatever. Uh, but like these are actual real products that, you know, when somebody's like, "Wow, let me go type in a zip code." And they look, they go, "Oh, smokes, that is a good deal." You know, I could snipe 100 grand on that deal or whatever.
Like, that's how people are building their net worth through real estate. That's great. These are practical AI applications, not to be confused with sort of artificial general intelligence. AGI bets, I think, will all crash. But longer term like actual practical I call it um uh e AI encyclopedic AI those sort of investments that actually help people be more productive.
Snipe deals in real estate or you know what Palanteer does for businesses with ontology or what UiPath does uh or or Service Now does or even Salesforce does. Those are ways that people can become more efficient. Uh and ultimately it's good for companies. It's good for S&P 500 earnings, which leads us to earnings forecast for next year.
Do keep in mind though that as we see these earnings forecasts for companies, uh the people who generally lose when these companies do so well uh are well people, right? So people unfortunately don't get the benefits of these earnings calls talking about operational efficiencies. In our course member live stream this morning, we were talking about how Service Now was talking up how their margins are going up because of AI operational efficiencies.
To me, all that really means is less hiring. They're going to hire fewer people because they don't need as many more people and and who wins companies. Now it makes sense also why margin has gone up but this is also part of a risk in the market is we have concentrated into these mag seven stocks mostly with significant margin levels that we've never seen before.
These are the highest margin levels we've ever had. We're 1.2 uh trillion dollars. Uh is this millions? No, wait hold on. This is millions times millions. Shoot. How many more zeros is that? If I add three, that'd be billion. That's $1.2 trillion in margin at FINRA. That's insane. And we're rising between October and November.
And November ended as a red month. Remember when we're like, "Hey, it's probably going to be red until December 9th and then bullish, right?" But anyway, uh that was one of our calls in the alpha report. And it was spot on. Knock on wood that we could keep doing that. You could join and get lifetime access before the coupon expires.
Meet Kevin.com. But uh you know, like this is insane. We are growing margin right now in this month at a 31% annualized pace. People are going ham overdrawing on margin and it and it's like M1 Finance and Robin Hood. All the brokers are like, "Please take on more debt because they make more money off of you." But it's so bad.
It's so so bad for the economy because it's going to create a massive crash. And this is why I think the forecasts are looney. Like Wall Street expects its fourth straight year of gains next year. Bloomberg interviewed uh like 21 different institutions and forecasters. So think like Bank of America, City, whatever.
Goldman Sachs, right? UBS. Of the 21 surveyed, there was not a single negative forecast. Every single institution thinks that the market will be positive next year with an average increase of 9%. While margin is at all-time highs, while Sam Alman's doing the Sam Alman, this would be the first time in 20 years, by the way, you would have had the fourth straight year of gains if it happens in 2026.
So, to me, as a contrarian, it sounds kind of bearish. But on the flip side, I hope it's true because like, you know, I kind of want the market to keep going up and then we can IPO, you know, an AI startup. Recessions delay those things, right? So anyway, uh you know, that's why like I'm on the middle.
I I'm just going to I'm going to share what I'm seeing and and you know, ultimately you do you, right? But uh these year-end price targets are wild uh in my opinion. Not only that, but it's worth remembering that bullishness pays, right? You make a big prediction, you pump the stock market, you get more people throwing AUM into your bank, you make more money, you win.
So there's there's a reason like it pays to be bullish. They say like Tom Lee doesn't raise, you know, billions of dollars to buy Ethereum by being bearish. He raises money for Ethereum by telling you it's going to 10x within the next two months by the end of the year, he says. All right. Uh similar story by the way at Tesla.
So we did a little bit of an analysis on Tesla. Uh Tesla is a little bit of a problem right now because uh Tesla has quite a few negative catalysts coming up. I'm going to put some of these up on screen. Uh, but I'm not very excited about the catalyst that Tesla is facing right now. Uh, Tesla has deliveries coming up at the end of the week.
Uh, I've gone ahead and thrown the estimates on the Meet Kevin app. So, the delivery estimates for the year end per Wall Street are that we are going to sit at 1.65 million deliveries. Uh, Wall Street is expecting that to rise again next year, which is very interesting because Troy Teslike, whom I respect as a Tesla analyst, he actually thinks that the decline will accelerate for Tesla deliveries in 2026.
Now, this also compounds with some of the other negative catalysts that we have. Tesla's going to have to realize a loss in GAP earnings due to their Bitcoin losses. uh given that we have to mark to market every quarter. The vehicle tax credit ended in Q3. That pain shows up in Q4. Now we have another negative pain though.
While we have the home tax credits for the purchases of home energy or solar systems ending in Q4, that pain shows up in Q1. Obviously we have seen delays in robo taxi and Optimus. uh we could see that you know over here very clearly the uh information has sort of a reconciliation here about how Elon Musk made these promises or these forecasts of robo taxi service being available to half the population by the end of 2025 subject to regulatory approval in October dialed that back to eight out of 10 metros and now we're still only in Austin in San Francisco with humans in every single customer ride and we're 2 days before the end of the year.
You know, Elon at one point mentioned you could go to sleep in your Tesla and wake up at your destination by the end of the year. Uh this idea that we would have 5,000 Optimus robots by the end of 2025 turned into 2,000, which turned into basically very few because of technical challenges with the hands.
Now, they're pitching that SpaceX is going to take Optimus robots and send them to Mars, and the Optimus is going to go to Mars. So obviously the information is casting a little bit of jade here. Uh and so you know make of Elon's predictions what you want. You you kind of can't take away like you got to give Elon credit.
They've done some incredible things. He's got the best ads software that exists. Uh I think you've got a great company. I think the valuation is very very high. But uh he's done fantastic things with Starlink and SpaceX as well. I mean everybody's trying to copy him with the reusable rockets. I mean good for them.
Uh, so like hey, you know, some of it might be hype, but um, you know, I do think that these delivery forecasts, which for Q4, Troy is not very happy. You could obviously follow his Patreon to get the exact numbers. I'm not going to give away his numbers, but I will say that uh, his forecasts are much lower than the analyst consensus of 448,000 deliveries.
Q4 last year was 495. This year analyst consensus is 448. He's way lower and he thinks it's going to keep going down. I personally don't disagree because I mentioned that uh you know I was expecting a more aggressive Model Y like cheap Model Y pricing when they went for $399. I made a video and I said this isn't this isn't like enough to get volume going.
And so it seems like Tesla's pulling what I call an NPhase. So Nphase did this really interesting thing where and I didn't like it where I said hey like this is probably going to go back down to $30. If you watch my videos, you see me say that even even when it's like 70 bucks, I'm like, there's a shot this is going back down to 30 bucks.
And sure enough, it has. But one of the problems that NFACE has is uh they they basically said, listen, we're not going to risk reducing our, you know, 40% margins because we want to maintain our margins. We want to maintain our pricing power. We're not going to reduce our uh uh margins. We'll just sell fewer inverters.
Well, it got so bad that their sales have plummeted so far that now they're saying, "Yeah, we're going to have to uh make deals with power purchase uh agreement companies." Well, I'm like, "Well, that's terrible because those companies don't care about the quality of the product. They just want the cheapest product.
So, your margins are going to have to go down. So, now your sales are down and now you're going to have to lower your margins. So that's what I call the Nphase footprint. You know, we've been warning about this for quite a while and certainly in our alpha report. Uh remember you can join that.com. But uh Tesla is unfortunately now trying to follow a similar path.
Now I'm not saying they're going to have a similar outcome as NPhase, but I think it's really bad to say, "Oh, we're going to be stubborn. We're not going to drop prices. We're just going to cross our arms and go whatever." And you know, if sales go down, who cares? we're on to bigger and better things like Optimus or robo taxis.
I'm like, that's cool. I mean, that's not how I would run the business, but uh you know, I I'd be creating more models that people can buy today with the best ADAS system they have. They like that's what pisses me off, man. You literally have a company that could so easily print many different models of vehicles that people want.
a Model 2, a minivan, a Sprinter van. Put a Tesla, make every Amazon delivery van a Tesla. Sign a contract with them already, would you? Like, that's where the money is. Like, don't go straight to semi-truck. Let's do box van. Let's go. Like, there's so much we could do. So much safer with the best 8S that exists.
Who cares? It's not 100% full self-driving. It's 99.9% better than every damn human out there. It's so good. That's what you need at Tesla. So, I get frustrated, right? But anyway, um as a result of unfortunately sort of these bearish catalysts, uh when we look at their current PEG ratio, their current PEG ratio is sitting at 6 uh 86, which does suggest a downside of 75% to Tesla's fair value as a manufacturer and a 60% downside as a serer, which makes Tesla a very very desirable stock to sell right now.
Uh I am uh very bearish Tesla in the near term uh for their price action. I think it's uh it's built up on a lot of uh hope and and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people are diversifying out of Tesla or at least setting some trailing stops or selling calls or or whatever. But um um you know whatever like I'm not short Tesla, you know, I've got no no horse in the in the negative race.
I mean I've got I've got Tesla stock left in in like retirement accounts or my HSA and stuff. So, hey, like those accounts are great. Uh, thanks Tesla. But like I share this to also share my enthusiasm that hopefully somebody at Tesla can listen and be like, you know what? Yeah, like why don't we just sell what we know works now, you know?
Uh, but you know, whatever. So, you know, putting all this together, there's a lot of noise right now. I think the market is unfortunately having to discount that we're not going to get a rate cut in January. The silver and banking thing, I think, is just noise. Based on what I'm seeing in the bond market, I'm not seeing anything that suggests this is a real issue.
I do think there are real risks, some valuations at companies that are very high, but on the flip side, I think there are also very cheap companies out there uh that uh that that will have a a some great opportunities for long-term growth. Um so, uh yeah, there you have it. Uh if you haven't yet checked out houseack.com, remember our investment closes in two days and um our we will also be releasing our uh AI app within the next uh couple days here which means uh we're going to be raising the price and so we'll be ending the coupon code which is release the app.
You could use the coupon code release the app for both uh the meet Kevin membership or the house hack AI. Cool thing about if you get the lifetime access for the House hack AI is if we move this to a or I should say when we move this to an annual billing model, you know, you'll have lifetime access and other people will be paying what I expect to be 230 bucks a month.
Uh and so I think you can get in a bargain by basically being one of our alpha or beta testers, if you will. You can do that at househack.com. And then of course, if you want to join the Meke Kevin membership and get all those courses and the top 10 stocks that I'm buying for the next 10 years, uh, as well as the alpha report every morning, you can do that at me.com.
Remember, the coupon code is release the app. And so there you have it. Yeah, Tom from MySpace. Yeah, that that's what we need. So there we have it. Thanks so much for being here and uh we'll see you o.
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