저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 비트코인이 인플레이션과 디플레이션 모두에 대한 헤지라고 주장하며, AI 기반 디플레이션 충격과 사모신용·사모펀드발 상대방위험(counterparty risk) 확산을 경고한다. 소프트웨어 주식 급락은 알고리즘 매도에 따른 과잉 반응으로 보고 자사 고확신 종목을 매수 중이라고 밝힌다. 장기 비트코인 목표가 및 암호화폐 시장 성장 전망을 제시한다.
다듬은 글
Uh Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation and deflation. Um because uh the chaotic part of this is and and it's ripping through the markets now. A lot of um uh a lot of traditional industries and and and companies uh you know being brought the whole SAS space uh the disaster as they're calling it. Um, we think there is merit to that particular one, but I think you're going to see disruption all over the place.
Um, because the five innovation platforms that I mentioned are going to disrupt the existing world order. And what does that mean? If these technologies are so deflationary, it's going to be tough for the traditional world that's gotten used to sort of the, you know, the the two to 3% inflation um to adjust uh particular they'll have to embrace some of these technologies faster than expected.
Uh so the you know the idea of counterparty risk I think um is beginning to surface. Uh we've we've seen it with first brands, we've seen, you know, private equity and uh private credit especially is where there have been a lot of excesses. Um SAS, they they are too exposed to that. You know, are we going to see counterparty risk uh manifest more broadly?
If so, Bitcoin doesn't have that problem. Uh and so it is a a good hedge against deflation as well as inflation. The SAS market just lost $300 billion in a single day. Software stocks are in a blood bath and everyone is panicking about AI disruption destroying the traditional economy. But Kathy Wood, the legendary Arc Invest CEO, who just bought $72 million in crypto stocks while everyone else was selling, says something shocking is coming.
She says Bitcoin is a hedge against both inflation and deflation. She says the Fed is looking at the wrong signals. And what she revealed about deflationary chaos, why this is the opposite of the tech bubble, and why counterparty risk is about to explode. This might be the most important warning of 2026.
Let's break it down. What's happening what's happening in in the last week or so in particular reminds me of the early days of CO. You know, nobody knew what to do. And so algorithms just sold everything off except for, you know, the safest stocks, the most cashrich uh and cash flow generative companies.
And I remember as I was I was looking at it, it's an algorithmic move taking place in the market and causing a bit of a downward sp spiral uh in innovation related stocks. Uh now unlike co uh we were probably not going to have massive fiscal stimulus in the way that we got back then. So we're not going to have come out of this with a big boom.
But they're selling the baby with the bathwater again. And so it gives active managers uh an opportunity to in our case concentrate towards our highest conviction names. Um, I think the biggest risk out there is that Powell, who will only be in place until May, uh, that Powell is not and the other Fed board members are not, uh, understanding the deflationary undertoe that is beginning to take place here.
And um and they will not uh because they're not looking at the right signals uh and because they're looking at government data which is all you know wrong and and and based on the industrial age um they're they they could miss this and uh will be forced into a response when there's more carnage out there.
I think that's what I'm uh worried about right now. Uh I I think though I think this is the opposite of the bubble tech and telecom bubble. Uh right now we're seeing all of the beneficiaries of AI and every stock in our portfolios we have been looking at from through the AI lens uh for actually the last five to 10 years.
Let's start with the biggest statement. Kathy Wood told Anthony Pompiano at Bitcoin Investor Week, "Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation and deflation. Wait, how can one asset protect against both?" She explained, "The chaotic part of this is disruption all over the place. The five innovation platforms are going to disrupt the existing world order.
If these technologies are so deflationary, it's going to be tough for the traditional world used to 2 to 3% inflation to adjust. What does this mean? AI training costs are dropping 75% per year. Inference costs are falling 98% annually. This will crush prices across the entire economy. And for a debt heavy system built on steady inflation, that's a disaster.
But here's the key. The idea of counterparty risk is beginning to surface. We've seen it with first brands. We've seen private equity and private credit, especially where there have been a lot of excesses. Bitcoin doesn't have that problem. It is a good hedge against deflation as well as inflation. What Kathy Wood is describing isn't theoretical.
It's happening right now. In the first week of February, $300 billion was wiped from software stocks in 48 hours. Service Now crashed 11%. Salesforce plunged 26% from its highs. Into it collapsed nearly 34% year to date. They're calling it the Sespocalypse. Kathy said, "The whole SAS space, the disaster, as they're calling it.
We think there is merit to that particular one, but I think you're going to see disruption all over the place." The trigger, AI agents are replacing human workers. If 10 AI agents can do the work of 100 sales reps, you don't need 100 Salesforce seats anymore. That's a 90% reduction in seat revenue for the same work output.
This isn't about AI replacing software. It's about AI reducing the headcount that uses software. But here's where it gets dangerous. Kathy revealed the idea of counterparty risk is beginning to surface. Private equity and private credit especially is where there have been a lot of excesses. SAS companies are too exposed to that.
The numbers are terrifying. Morgan Stanley just issued a warning about $235 billion in software loans nearly 50% rated B or lower. Defaults among private loans are expected to rise this year. Borrowers are increasingly using payment inkind options to forestall defaulting. And here's the worst part. Lenders deemed loans 100 cents on the dollar until shortly before marking them down to zero.
Cathy's point, Bitcoin has no counterparty risk. No bank can mark it down. No private equity fund can collapse under it. No hidden leverage can implode it. In a world of cascading defaults, Bitcoin stands alone. Now, here's what has Cathy really worried. She said, "The biggest risk out there is that Powell, who will only be in place until May, is not understanding the deflationary undertoe that is beginning to take place here." Jerome Paul's term ends May 15th.
Trump just nominated Kevin Worsh to replace him. But until then, Kathy warns they're not looking at the right signals. They're looking at government data, which is all wrong and based on the industrial age. They could miss this and will be forced into a response when there's more carnage out there. This is huge.
The Fed is using backward-looking data while AI is creating forward-looking deflation. By the time they see it, the damage will already be done. But here's why Kathy is bullish through the chaos. She said, "This is the opposite of the tech and telecom bubble. Right now, we're seeing all of the beneficiaries of AI back.
Then investors threw money at tech when the technologies weren't ready. Now they are real and we're on the flip side of the bubble." And so we believe we have the beneficiaries in our portfolios. But there's so much confusion out there on AI that you know it's it's baby out with the bathwater as I just said and then you have this overlay of the policy makers once again being late.
You know a lot of people in the crypto market and in our markets are technical analysts and they they use the 200 day moving average 200 week and they see it break. So, you know, there's there's an algorithmic uh technical move taking place here. And, you know, as I always say to our team, truth will win out.
And we definitely are on the right side of change. And we believe we are in the right companies uh that will um benefit mightily from the not only a the AI revolution, but the convergence among these technologies. When you think about the way traditional research is set up in traditional asset management, um it's set up incorrectly to understand what's going on here.
It's set up by sector or industry or or subindustry. Many companies have five healthcare analysts, five consumer analysts. Uh in the world of innovation, the right way to look at the world today is by technology. under uh involved in those five platforms are 14 different technologies. We have set up our analyst responsibilities uh by by technology.
So they are experts in a given technology and they are generalists when it comes to sectors and industries because these technologies are converging and they are going to impact every sector, every industry, every company. She compared it to the early co days. What's happening in the last week reminds me of the early days of COVID.
Nobody knew what to do and so algorithms just sold everything off. It's an algorithmic move taking place in the market causing a downward spiral in innovation stocks. Her conclusion, they're selling the baby with the bathwater again. This gives active managers an opportunity to concentrate towards our highest conviction names.
And she's not just talking, she's acting. While everyone was panic selling, Arc Invest bought $72 million in crypto stocks on February 2nd alone. She bought $32.7 million of Robin Hood, 14.6 6 million of Cororeweave, $9.4 million of Circle, $6.3 million of Bitmine, $6 million of Bullish, $1.9 million of Block, $1.3 million of Coinbase.
Since then, she's continued buying through the crash, adding two positions for 11 consecutive trading days in some stocks. ARK now holds over $280 million in Coinbase alone, over $26 million in Circle, over $168 million in bullish. Kathy said, "A lot of people use the 20day moving average, 20 week, and they see a break.
So, there's an algorithmic technical move taking place here, but as I always say to our team, truth will win out, and we definitely are on the right side of change." Kathy explained why she's so confident when you think about the way traditional research is set up. It's set up incorrectly to understand what's going on.
It's set up by sector or industry. Many companies have five healthcare analysts, five consumer analysts. In the world of innovation, the right way to look at the world today is by technology. Arc has organized their analysts by technology, not sector. They cover 14 different technologies across five innovation platforms and Cathy says these technologies are converging.
These technologies are converging and they are going to impact every sector, every industry, every company. In ARC's big ideas 2026 report, they forecast the crypto market could grow to $28 trillion by 2030, led by Bitcoin, which they expect to account for 70% of total market value. Her long-term Bitcoin target, $1.2 million per coin by 2030.
So, here's what you need to know. The ces apocalypse just wiped $300 billion from software stocks. AI is creating deflationary chaos that the Fed doesn't see coming. Private credit has $235 billion in loans about to blow up and counterparty risk is exploding everywhere. But Kathy Wood says Bitcoin is the hedge against both inflation and deflation.
It has no counterparty risk. It exists outside the traditional system that's about to implode. While everyone panicked, she bought $72 million and her target $28 trillion crypto market by 2030. This is not the tech bubble. This is the opposite. The technologies are real and truth will win out. Are you buying the blood bath or selling with the algorithms? . Is deflation the real threat? I'll see you in the next
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