저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
시장의 공포는 1990년대 후반 닷컴 버블과 달리 과열이 아닌 초기 단계의 신호라고 주장. 금은 70% 상승, 비트코인은 50% 하락했으나 비트코인 공급은 확대될 수 없어 장기적으로 유리하다고 봄. 상승 추세선은 유지 중이며 2022-23 구간이 지지선이라고 설명. 아크는 하락 구간에 비트코인 관련 주식 약 7,200만 달러를 매수. 에이전틱 AI 시대의 결제 인프라로 LayerZero를 언급하고 디플레이션 혼란 속 비트코인을 헤지 수단으로 제시.
다듬은 글
Uh, so lots of learning and I guess I'll conclude by by saying um you know, unlike the tech and telecom bubble, this is the real deal. Unlike the tech and telecom bubble people are scared to death. As a portfolio manager in the world of innovation I would prefer fear and climbing a wall of worry than the speculative excesses that we saw in the tech and telecom bubble.
Now, you might say AI is going through that. That's been part of the worry in the market. We don't think so. We all the research we're doing would suggest that we are in the equivalent of 1996 in in the technology or the internet revolution that was taking place back then. Very, very early and sure it went into overdrive.
It went crazy. Gold is up 70%. Bitcoin is down 50%. Everyone is calling crypto investors dunces, but Cathie Wood, the woman who just bought $72 million in crypto stocks while everyone was selling just revealed something that changes everything. She says this is not the tech bubble. She says Bitcoin supply cannot accelerate and what she just said about deflationary chaos, agentic AI, and why the builders are heads down right now.
This is the most important interview of 2026. Let's break it down. We have to acknowledge that gold has way out performed Bitcoin. Bitcoin has gotten caught up in this risk-off in a certain sense dynamic where, you know, you're getting wholesale uh drops in sectors. No, you know, sell now, ask questions later.
It's uh certainly happened in the SAS space. It's happened in the wealth management space. Uh it's happened in the trucking broker space. So, this like, you know, uh algorithmic selling in the market uh definitely has hurt Bitcoin because many people are not looking at to it as a a store of value, the way they are looking to gold as a store of value and and safety in a time of trouble.
Uh now, we don't understand that um because gold supply growth is um we believe accelerating. Bitcoin supply growth cannot accelerate. Uh now, quantum computing, we talked about that. We talked about all all the uh all of the worries uh that um are going around uh in the Bitcoin community, especially as the ETFs have gotten involved.
So, we we had newer holders, probably weaker holders, and you know, when they're confronted with those risks, they'll again sell and ask questions later. You can see, though, that the uptrend higher lows uh in a major way. Uh sure, we broke the one, I guess, from uh 24, but uh that that uptrend, general uptrend, has not been broken.
Uh and I don't think it will be broken. Now, could be famous last words, but, you know, a lot of technicians are involved in the market right now. In fact, that's all they're doing. And it's astonishing to me that some of the people um that are so steeped in the research of Bitcoin and other crypto assets have defaulted to technical analysis as this move has taken place.
Well, if you're a technician, look where we are now and you can see that's where we topped in 2017. Uh so, that's kind of a marker. There's also some support uh you can see there in the 2022-23 range when Bitcoin was actually a refuge for those who were very scared of the regional bank crisis turning into a much broader financial crisis uh with counterparty risk ala 08-09.
That cannot happen to Bitcoin. Uh so, and and definitely I encourage people to self-custody if if they want to hedge a bit uh against counterparty risk because we do have the ETFs now uh involved in um in ownership. "Let's start with the biggest revelation," Cathie Wood said. "Unlike the tech and telecom bubble, this is the real deal.
Unlike the tech and telecom bubble, people are scared to death. And here's the key insight," she explained. "As a portfolio manager in the world of innovation, I would prefer fear in climbing a wall of worry than the speculative excesses that we saw in the tech and telecom bubble." Think about what she's saying.
In the year 2000, everyone was throwing money at tech because they were greedy. Today, everyone is terrified and Cathie says that's exactly what she wants to see. She continued, "All the research we're doing would suggest that we are in the equivalent of 1996 in the internet revolution that was taking place back then, very, very early.
And sure, it went into overdrive. It went crazy. We're not at the end of the cycle, we're at the beginning." "Now, here's what's really hurting Bitcoin," Cathie explained. "We have to acknowledge that gold has way out performed Bitcoin. Bitcoin has gotten caught up in this risk-off dynamic where you're getting wholesale drops in sectors.
Sell now, ask questions later. The numbers are brutal. Since October 2025, gold is up 70%. Bitcoin is down 50%. It crashed from $126,000 to $60,000 on February 6th, the worst single day drops since FTX collapsed. She continued, "It certainly happened in the SAS space. It's happened in the wealth management space.
It's happened in the trucking broker space. This algorithmic selling in the market has definitely hurt Bitcoin because many people are not looking at it as a store of value the way they are looking to gold as a store of value and safety in a time of trouble." But here's where Kathy dropped a bombshell about why she's buying while everyone is selling.
She said, "We don't understand that because gold supply growth is, we believe, accelerating. Bitcoin supply growth cannot accelerate. This is fundamental. Gold can be mined, discovered, even created through fusion technology one day. But Bitcoin, there will only ever be 21 million. The supply is fixed.
It's mathematically impossible to create more." She addressed the quantum computing fear. "Quantum computing, we talked about that. We talked about all the worries that are going around in the Bitcoin community, especially as ETFs have gotten involved. So we had newer holders, probably weaker holders, and when they're confronted with those risks, they'll sell and ask questions later.
Now here's what the technicians are missing." Kathy explained, "You can see though that the uptrend higher lows in a major way, sure we broke the one from 24, but that general uptrend has not been broken and I don't think it will be broken." She gave the historical context. "If you're a technician, look where we are now and you can see that's where we topped in 2017.
So that's kind of a marker. There's also some support in the 2022-23 range when Bitcoin was actually a refuge for those who were very scared of the regional bank crisis turning into a much broader financial crisis with counterparty risk ala 809." "And here's the key point that cannot happen to Bitcoin.
I definitely encourage people to self-custody if they want to hedge a bit against counterparty risk because we do have the ETFs now involved in ownership. Now here's the massive development that nobody is talking about." Kathy revealed, "I have just gotten involved in an advisory role with a company called LayerZero, which is trying from a DeFi point of view to go back to the future and not compromise the way Ethereum has and other blockchains with layer two seconds.
And here's why this matters," she explained. "They're trying to develop an ecosystem for this new age, the agentic AI age, where there's going to be a lot of activity, machine to machine, that can handle 2 to 4 million transactions per second. Ethereum can only handle 13. Solana maybe 2,000." Just this week, Tether invested in LayerZero Labs for exactly this reason to build infrastructure for the infinite agentic AI economy, where AI agents operate autonomous wallets and make micro payments at unprecedented scale.
And ARK Invest became an equity shareholder. This is the future. Uh so, it's been grueling, uh but it's also been uh I I don't love these periods because I worry about our clients. Um we use these periods. We've been buying uh in the crypto space in our various strategies. Um but uh that this is the time where, you know, you learn about everybody's fears, and I described them in the last in the video, and how we've addressed them.
Um but you learn uh about uh other other uh developments in the crypto asset ecosystem. And um uh I have just gotten involved uh in an advisory role with uh a company called LayerZero, uh which is trying from a DeFi point of view, uh trying to go back to the future and not compromise the way uh the way Ethereum has and and other uh blockchains with layer twos and so forth, but actually go back to the future and develop an ecosystem for this new age, the agentic AI age, where there's going to be a lot of activity, you know, machine to machine, uh that can handle 2 to 4 million transactions per sec per second.
Ethereum can only handle 13. Uh Solana maybe 2,000. Uh so, you know, it's very interesting that during tough times, the builders in this community are heads down. And so, our research surfaces some of this new activity because or this new these new approaches um because they're they're starting to talk more about them in the context of the way the DeFi ecosystem is currently set up.
At Bitcoin Investor Week this week, Cathie dropped her biggest prediction. She said Bitcoin isn't just a hedge against inflation, it's a hedge against deflationary chaos driven by artificial intelligence. The cost to train AI models is falling 75% per year. Inference costs are dropping 98% annually.
This will trigger a productivity shock that traditional financial systems aren't prepared for. The Federal Reserve is focused on 2-3% inflation, but AI is about to push prices down across the entire economy. Cathie said, "This is the opposite of the tech and telecom bubble. Back then, investors threw money at tech when the technologies weren't ready.
Now they're real and we're on the flip side of the bubble. And Cathie isn't just talking, she's buying." On February 2nd-3rd, when Bitcoin crashed below $75,000, Ark Invest bought $72 million worth of crypto stocks, Robinhood, CoreWeave, Circle, Bitmain, Bullish, Block, and Coinbase. She explained her strategy.
"It's been grueling, but I don't love these periods because I worry about our clients. We use these periods. We've been buying in the crypto space in our various strategies." Her message to builders, "It's very interesting that during tough times, the builders in this community are heads down. Our research surfaces some of this new activity because they're starting to talk more about them in the context of the way the DeFi ecosystem is currently set up.
So, here's what you need to know. Gold has outperformed Bitcoin by 120 percentage points since October, but Cathie Wood says this is not a bubble. This is the real deal. We're in 1996 of the internet revolution. Bitcoin supply cannot accelerate. The uptrend is not broken. Agentic AI is coming and layer zero can handle 4 million transactions per second.
Deflationary chaos is coming and Bitcoin is the hedge. While everyone was selling, Ark bought $72 million. The builders are heads down. Fear is everywhere, and that's exactly what Cathie wants to see. Truth will win out. . Are you buying the dip or waiting? I'll see you in the next one.
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