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if you look at the Hideous action in the stock of Nvidia today you think CEO Jensen Wong offered nothing special at his CES keynote last night or maybe even that he canceled it but sometimes the stock doesn't tell the whole story particularly this stock first of all the whole Tech sector rolled over today even as other parts of the market like healthcare and Banks they held up well second I'd argue that tech stocks were victims of the flailing tenure treasury as I said at the top of the show finally this stock was up huge going into Jensen speech last night at its highs it was shocking Nvidia managed to open up strong this morning and it was sailing it only fell from those levels because the yield in the tene treasury Spike listen I'm a stock guy not a tech guy not a health guy and not a bank guy but I am what's called a generalist I cover many different Industries many different companies but some stocks I follow more closely than others stocks like Nvidia that means I know invidious capabilities and to someone who knows about the company I did find last night's speach pretty darn dazzling see last night Jensen took a leap to go much deeper with physical AI including making humanoid robots and taking autonomous driving to the next level as Jens said quote everything that moves from Cars and Trucks to factories and warehouses will be robotic and embodied by AI n quote to me that sounds like the agentic economy where we have digital agents that can do all sorts of things for us and it's all Nvidia the world will never be the same if this happens any after last 10 I think it's happening much sooner than expected that was the takeaway Jensen talked about the possibly relevant aipc something that's been considered bust he mentioned several uses for Apple's Vision Pro for healthcare and gaming another leged bust plus there are all new clients clients like Toyota that may want to build out a network using a supercomputer brain in one location and then a brain on board I know that's just sounds like a press release but if Toyota well capitalized company decides to build out a Tesla likee autonomous driving system it's going to have to buy hundreds of thousands of Nvidia chips that's good for business very additive now there are always people plenty of people actually who own Nvidia for the long term like trust does they should be gratified by all these very important announcements but there's also a huge group of people who own Nvidia because it goes up often by lot and the stock went nuts going going into and immediately after jens's speech these people many of whom buy call options not common stock don't know enough about the company just stay in it when the stock start selling off uh I'm sure they didn't watch the keynote or read the blogs and they're just in it because the momentum when the momentum turns they turn too to me this is business as usual people I may not know all the exciting specs that Jensen talked about as I see it he assured you that the new Industrial Revolution is alive and well and coming to you in a very short time in my eyes Nvidia stock was brought down not by anything lacking in CES but because there was too much hot money in the stock and these kinds of fellow Travelers are your worst enemy if you're a shareholder this decline had nothing to do with the specs from Blackwell or any of nvidia's other chips myw Nvidia died a few years ago but the company NVIDIA it is alive and well with the stock the titled this kind of move over and over again it just stands out because the company now has $3.4 trillion market capitalization slightly more apple and to some this morning at $153 stock it was priced for Perfection it closed at $40 the thing is last night Jensen actually gave us Perfection and that's why Nvidia actually opened up but other forces intervene and crushed the stock we don't know what the employment number will look like on Friday but if it's at all soft today's sellers will be kicking themselves if you don't already own it you can think about buying some now like maybe you know nicely below it's alltime high and wait until the labor department to buy more if it comes in hot you will get a chance to buy this stock lower maybe much slower but understand one thing the keynote Dazzle the new projects are way ahead of any other company and this new Industrial Revolution belongs to Nvidia that doesn't mean the stock can't go down it just means that you can buy happily buy the inevitable pullbacks although when they do happen remember they tend to be sizable and brought about by scared shareholders who aren't sure exactly what Nvidia makes other than sparkling leather jackets and manyi Jensen breaking news from the world of artificial intelligence has left investors buzzing Nvidia might be the first company to reach the 4 trillion market cap despite all the challenges the stock might be facing from Deep seek chipping away at its market cap to all the anxiousness and the uncertainty that surrounds its Supply process prepare to delve into what this development means for NVIDIA and the stock market at large without giving away all the juicy details just yet welcome back everyone to invest docy we have this paper out of Stanford where these researchers claim to have trained a reasoning model for 50 bucks in Cloud credits that's making the rounds well we can ask Rene H that I think that by the end these guys are going to make it so that that they pay you to take that I mean there's a little absurdity going on here uh why is NVIDIA not at 20 or 30 because it's not true well I think there's two different uh things here one is the potential commoditization of the of the AI providers the open AIS the the Geminis although it's obviously associated with uh the anthropics you want to go through them and whether they will be sort of offering all of them a product that is very much similar and so what is going end up differentiating them open AI trying to raise another what $40 billion at a 300 I mean billion plus dollar valuation have to what Amazon says because Amazon could later waste everybody and then there's the other side of it which is yes but you're going to need inference inferencing is everything and that's still going to require Blackwell chips from Nvidia the only real player even though others are trying to design some of their now that's what we're going to hear from Renee hog and any efficiencies will just be baked in and ultimately get us to wherever we're going a bit faster what's hurt this period it is the Nvidia quiet period And what if Jensen were to come out and say you know what I hope this stuff goes to zero because then you'll be able to use the part of Blackwell that is so great uh which I think is true um in other words there was another recommendation ation day of Nvidia they're obviously trying to get it so that it stabilizes but I think that Nvidia if we hear tonight that Amazon says you know what we got to spend and our trainum isn't going to do it uh we remain great Partners inidia if we if we hear remain great Partners Nvidia David Nvidia goes to 245 really yeah touching on the events of the last two years The Narrative of Nvidia has been nothing short of spectacular since open ai's launch of Chad GP on November 30th 2022 nvidia's shares have skyrocketed by an astonishing 743 turning heads and emptying pockets as investors scrambled to catch this highflying star amidst this meteoric rise Nvidia seemed poised to Crown itself the first $4 trillion stock on Wall Street with its key competitors being none other than fellow Tech Giants apple and Microsofre you reassessing one of your favorite stocks Nvidia at at all I mean what if what if we could can call call you know what on on deepsea the cost right of what they allegedly did what they are reported to have have done it's almost irrelevant what if that's just a a moment that suggests it's going to become demonstrably cheaper demonstrably cheaper to build these models and that's going to have a transformative impact on the kinds of companies that have benefited to this point they're just not going to make as much money as they once thought they could right so I think there's a couple of things that um even even open AI if they were to to make their 03 model I don't know how much their 03 model cost or their 01 model it wasn't it's not two orders of magnitude more expensive to make than the Deep seek model it may have been you know a few multiples higher not orders of magnitude higher that's the first thing secondly what the the total cost of of the training of deep seek and you know the all of that infrastructure and also the fact that they were kind of trained on other models other llm open source right so because it was open sourced means that you still need that base infrastructure now I would remind you that capex numbers actually didn't come down at all Google meta maybe not meta but Google um open AI anthropic they they knew of all of these techniques and are using those techniques themselves the veryy efficiencies touted by Deep seek on the other hand and the same ones that cause the Nvidia stock to stumble a bit align with the jevans Paradox where technological improvements contrary to reducing costs spur greater expenditure and demand for such Innovations thus nvidia's cuttingedge technology could enter a Renaissance phase fueled by this new competition rather than wilting under its shadow happened to deep seek I thought we all were supposed to be cut did we all just get had on the Deep seek story well jevin didn't get had he knew he knew the 1865 Economist back in Great Britain we were talking about a lot last week Jin's Paradox because listen I don't think any of us expected and I think we said this last week uh when we got the commentary from many of these companies that they would reverse their capex in some way but I think what perhaps is a bit more surprising is the increases you mentioned metas which occurred on Friday I believe it was 60 to 65 billion uh Microsoft at least 80 probably 85 billion some say will go as high as 90 billion this year and then you just uh referred to that significant increase in capex from alphabet to 75 billion the numbers are stunning obviously and they all point to uh potentially overreaction I guess some would argue in what happened to nvidia's stock price I would add to that Jim that alphabet Shares are going to be down in part because of the deceleration of the growth rate of cloud 30% yes still a very strong number but not as strong as it had been but what do you make of the comments on the on the call when the CFO said the cloud misses due to being Supply constrained more demand than available capacity doesn't that say good things for NVIDIA yes it does uh it says great things now what people are still concerned about is if you notice in the verbiage that they're going to be the first to sell Blackwell well wait a second I thought Blackwell was selling like mad so that was a a pause uh second we have one more in this Gauntlet will Amazon say that they're going to pause why didn't alphabet say you know what we're in light of deep SE we're going to maybe pause our spin but they couldn't because they're an honest company and N Kashi who here not going to let them do that I mean Carl we sold down Nvidia because of a belief that you didn't need all this capex uh so far everyone has said they do Amazon's the one that has the most that they're working on uh that's away from Nvidia but if Amazon says you know what we're going to need to do capex then Nvidia is going to go up rather dramatically in conclusion despite recent Jitters precipitated by Deep seeks surprising entry into the AI domain nvidia's potential Remains undiminished the market has a knack for drama and while this episode induced a brief bout of panic selling the long-term trajectory seems radiant with potential but what about you do you think Nvidia will reach the 4 trillion market cap
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