저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
CPI 발표 후 시장 변동성이 커졌고 지표 해석이 엇갈림. 차트 기술적 분석 신뢰 강조. 반도체 지수 SOXX/SOXL은 지수 대비 조정 폭이 커 상승 여지가 크다고 봄. 단기 하락채널 지지권에서 분할 매수했고 종가 기준 하락추세 돌파 여부를 확인할 예정. 상승 가능성이 하락 돌파 가능성보다 약간 높다고 판단. 11월 FOMC 전후 약 325달러 부근 진입 근거, 돌파 시 370달러 가능성 언급. SOXL 8월 이후 최대 71% 하락 언급. 연준의 긴축 기조 유지 전망으로 경계 필요.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is America. We have just finished the week, and as expected, volatility was extremely high. The difficulty level was also very high. Even though the CPI data was clearly the worst, the market rebounded sharply after the announcement, only to plummet again yesterday following the UK Prime Minister's speech.
If you look here, this is the Thursday and Friday candle, and the market is truly moving without a center. People aren't accepting the data at face value but interpreting it however they please. That is why I think it is difficult. In fact, after seeing the CPI results, I thought they were worse than I expected, so I immediately opened a super position, but it hit my set stop.
I also started split buying long positions starting yesterday. After a lot of thought, I arrived at a conclusion, and I intend to share that with you today. I will also discuss my response strategy. Before that, however, I strongly urge you to trust the charts right now. You need to focus a little more on technical analysis.
Since the market moves as it pleases, the charts are the only thing you can trust right now. Actually, after the CPI announcement on Thursday, the market closed up over 2% after falling 3% during the session, showing a gain of over 5% during the day. Even then, various reasons emerged: from shelf patterns to oversold zones, program trading, short covering, UK issues, Ompion, Mangil, liquidity, and rising bond prices.
There were various reasons, including the reason for yesterday's market decline. Since the market is exhibiting behavior that is truly unpredictable—like a snoring sound if hung on the nose—I would like to advise you to respond by focusing more on technical analysis. Now, I will explain the response method in the Semiconductor Chart Analysis section.
The reason I mentioned "soxx" instead of "QQ" is that the semiconductor sector has undergone a greater correction compared to the index, meaning there is more room for upward movement. Regarding index management, I plan to share the strategy through my channel's community on Monday. So, regarding whether you should buy the semiconductor index now, to start with the conclusion, I want to emphasize that you must buy with a strategy.
You must plan to respond at specific zones. The current price is precisely at the bottom of this short-term descending channel. As you can see, it is a highly reliable zone that has been supported several times. I have entered into a split purchase, and if it breaks this downtrend based on the closing price, you must then look toward the bottom of this medium-term trend.
You must also set a stop-loss. However, I view the possibility of an upward movement as slightly higher than the possibility of a breakout. The first zone you need to watch is the top of this descending channel. Confirm whether it breaks through here or acts as resistance; I plan to sell in installments when it reaches this level while observing the direction.
I plan to reposition. We can base our entry on the FMC scheduled for November or February, which would be around $325. The direction will depend on the FMC results, but if it breaks through this level, it could be said that the upper limit of the mid-term trend is open, which we can view as roughly $370.
If we translate this into SXL, it would be 9% and 24% from now, so it would be 27% and 72%. Therefore, you should roughly consider $9 and $12 as major resistance lines and make sure to establish your own strategy to respond. To summarize, I see a slightly higher probability of a rebound than a further decline.
So, while I plan to respond with this strategy, you must also set stop losses. There are many important events next week, and the market could react quite sensitively. Also, the Fed does not particularly want asset prices to rise until inflation is under control. If we synthesize the recent Fed statements, they remain aggressive, and since a hawkish stance is expected to continue, you must not lower your guard regarding the market.
I think the most ideal approach would be to respond at specific price levels while watching the upcoming Q3 earnings announcements. As you can tell just by looking at this, the recent decline is truly... It was severe; SOXL has dropped by as much as 71% since August. Conversely, this means the contribution is just as significant when it rises.
The market never moves in a one-way direction. I believe the greatest "universe" in the stock market might be this kind of drop, at least for stocks backed by earnings and growth potential. No matter how major the negative news remains, if there are ultimately more buyers than sellers, then it is a failure and disappears.
Therefore, I want to emphasize that response is crucial right now. Please make sure to check out next week's market strategy, which I will post on my community page on Monday, to use as a reference for your trading. That's all for today's video. You've worked really hard this volatile week. If this was helpful, please subscribe and like.
If you have any questions, please leave a comment and I will check and reply. Thank you.
Comments 0