저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 연준의 반복된 부양책이 거품을 키워 대형 경제 충격이 불가피하며, 인플레이션 고착 속 전통 가치주·원자재·신흥국·금이 유리하다는 주장. 연준 정책 비판: 2008년 위기 때 시장 정화 대신 구제금융이 이뤄져 거품이 더 커졌고, 제로금리로 부채 부담을 감춘 것이 문제라고 주장. 금리·부채 리스크: 금리가 오르면서 부채 상환 부담이 현실화되고 있으며, 채권 매입(QE)이 사실상 부채 화폐화라 이를 되돌리기 어렵다고 봄. QE4는 1~3차 합보다 크고 QE5도 그보다 커질 것이라 예상. 비트코인 비관: 펀더멘털이 없는 투기자산이며, 그레이스케일 비트코인 트러스트가 프리미엄에서 35% 할인으로 돌아선 점과 고점 대비 80% 하락을 근거로 안전자산 아님을 주장. 비트코인은 19,000달러 부근이라고 언급. 시장 전망: 인플레이션이 2%로 돌아가지 않고 20%까지 갈 수 있다고 주장하며, 고금리·고인플레에서 기술주(ARK 혁신펀드 보유 종목 포함)는 불리하다고 봄. 금리 인하가 없다면 시장은 신저점을 갈 수 있으며, 나스닥은 고점 대비 약 35% 하락 상태라고 언급. 투자 방향: 가격결정력과 실물자산을 가진 배당 기업, 미국 밖 기업, 원자재(금속·에너지·농산물), 신흥국에 투자해왔다고 밝힘. 금·은을 인플레이션 방어 수단으로 권장. 대안 화폐 주장: 중앙은행 없이 금본위제로 돌아갈 수 있으며, 블록체인으로 금을 토큰화해 화폐로 쓸 수 있다고 제안. 출연자 전망: 금을 강조하는 결론상 장기적으로 금 상승을 기대하는 입장.
다듬은 글
the Federal Reserve never allows any of these recessions to run their course they never allow the market to really Purge the economy of the excesses get rid of the companies that need to fail so we can make room for those that need to succeed instead the government just bails everybody out props up companies that should fail replaces one bubble with a bigger bubble and the economy never really heals and so now you know I mean we're going to have you know 10 on the Richter Scale a kind of economic earthquake as a result of these imbalances that have built up because government has stopped it and what's amazing is that so many so-called experts you know in Academia on Wall Street and government they still don't get it the reason that I knew the 2008 financial crisis was coming is because I understood the mistakes that were made that led to the bubble that made that crisis inevitable well all the people that were laughing at me in 2006 2007 that had no idea what was about to happen they're the same guys that are just as clueless today they don't understand that everything the FED has done since the 2008 Finance crisis was a mistake as they were complimenting them you know Ben Bernanke was the hero he was on the cover of magazines he saved us he didn't save us he's the reason that we're in so much trouble him and then Janet Yellen and the policies that they pursued instead of pursuing free market sound money policies we inflated these giant bubbles and now we're at the point where we can't do it anymore because now the consequences of the inflation have become a problem so now inflation is the problem well how do you stop that well you you got to remove all the cheap money uh but then now the Day of Reckoning that we that we refuse to deal with in 2008 that we refuse to deal with in 2020.
now we've got to deal with it but it's way worse it would have been much better had we followed my advice in 2008 and just let the crisis run its course no tarps no bailouts whatever banks failed they fail oh Viva lost money they lost money let the foreclosures go through it would have been much better to have sucked it up and bitten a bullet in 2008 then have to endure where we're heading out way worse The Way We Kick the Can down the road is we kept interest rates at zero and so even though we had a massive amount of debt it wasn't that expensive in fact even Janet Yellen last year she said the amount of debt wasn't important what matters is what it cost to service it and she said with really low interest rates we don't have to worry about the debt okay well what happens when interest rates go up like they're going up right now all of a sudden you have to worry about the debt but remember Ben Bernanke said a lot of things that turned out not to be true including that subprime was contained and we didn't have to worry about it but of course when uh in 2009 when Bernanke was in up on Capitol Hill and one of the congressmen said you know you're monetizing the debt right this is what banana republics do Ben Bernanke says no we're not monetizing the debt because this QE program is temporary we're going to sell all these bonds and so it's not really that monetization debt monetization is when a central bank buys bonds and then they stay on the balance sheet well they're still on the balance sheet we have it not almost a nine trillion dollar balance sheet I said in real time that Bernanke was lying I said there's no way these bonds are never going to get sold because once the government buys them they can't sell them because who's going to buy them from the government the only reason rates are so low is because the government bought all those bonds the minute the government tries to sell those bonds rates are going to soar you know the reason they bought them was because we can't afford the high rate but so how can they sell it because now there's even more that look that's why I called it a monetary roach motel I said that from day one I said because once they check us in it's impossible to check out that's why I said we'd have more kiwis than Rocky movies back then when we had qe1 and now we've had four and we're about to have the fifth round right but you know the thing about the Rocky movies each subsequent Rocky movie was worse right the first one was a great movie and then they kind of started going downhill and so that's what's going to happen with quantitative easing not that the first one was good either the first one was bad but hey just gonna keep getting worse but the next one is going to be even bigger than the first four combined and remember when they when they finish qe3 and they said okay we'll never do it again my prediction was that qe4 would be bigger than one two and three combined and I was right and qe5 will be bigger than the first ones but you know then the dollar just didn't close it can't survive that but unfortunately you know bitcoin's going down with it Bitcoin is another mistake you've got to understand that there's not there's no substance there it's not gold it's not digital gold why do you think Bitcoin is still at nineteen thousand despite all the money that was spent hyping it up in 2021 despite that run up to near 70 000.
look where it is why do you think the grayscale Bitcoin trust that used to be at a 30 premium is at a 35 discount do you really think institutions are adopting Bitcoin when they're trying to unload it and that fund is trading at a 35 discount the fund is down 80 percent from its peak is that a store of value is that a safe haven no it's not Bitcoin is a highly speculative asset but what are you speculating on because there's nothing there there's no fundamentals there you're just speculating on a greater fool that is not what you want to do if you're really worried about monetary problems and inflation and you're looking for a store of value in a safe haven you don't have to reinvent the wheel you've already got one you've got real money you've got gold you've got silver you've got monetary metals that you can own to protect you from inflation but if you buy Bitcoin right now all you're doing is helping somebody else get rid of their people the loser is the buyer and the Biggest Loser is whoever buys the most and gets caught pulled in the back inflation is not going back down to two percent I mean we'll be at 20 before we're at two percent so I think a high inflation environment is not going to be friendly to tech stocks it's not going to be stocks or the cryptocurrencies I think you need low interest rates and low inflation so I think High inflation I think that that's going to favor traditional value so in the stock market it's going to be you know the old brick and mortar dividend-paying companies you know that people didn't care about during during the bubble companies that have real earnings today not potential earnings in the future or no potential earnings in the future like like a Bitcoin but companies that have earnings now that can pay dividends now and more importantly they can raise their prices so they can raise their dividends because people are going to need dividends that go up with the cost of living so if that's where the money is going to flow businesses that have pricing power that have real assets that can pay inflation adjusted yields that will give you a positive return now I think you know those stocks exist I think most of them are outside the United States that's what I've been buying for years knowing what the end game was going to be I've been accumulating these types of stocks you know preparing for the environment that we're headed into and I also think it's going to be a commodity boom uh you know raw materials natural resources you know Metals energy agriculture all this stuff 's going up not you know the tech and so people have to reorient their portfolios to get in into those sectors I think the Emerging Markets are going to be primary beneficiaries of and most people have very little exposure or no exposure to to those markets because they've done so poorly over the last decade uh during this during this media so I think everything that worked uh when we could pretend inflation was low none of that's going to work in the reality of inflation being high we haven't had a major crash we've just had a slow steady decline although maybe not quite so slow I mean if you look at you know where we are we're you know on Pace to have one of the worst years of the stock market ever you know we just had the worst September since uh September 2008 so it was a bad month but no we didn't have a you know Black Friday or Black Monday type event like we did in 1987 or a big crash like we had in 1929 but you know the NASDAQ is down or was down before this morning 35 for its peak still you know in a fair market and we've lost all that ground this year remember the NASDAQ hit its record high in January and split in the s p in the Dow so it's been a pretty uh a bad year and we had a big sell-off inch or quarter we had a bear Market rally in the beginning of a quarter but you know if the FED continues the pretense of fighting inflation today's rally is going to be completely undone and markets are going to make new lows I mean the only chance the market has is If the Fed completely you know it does a 180 but that's not gonna save it it's not going to go back to what worked before I still think a lot of these tech stocks like the ones that you know Kathy would own and it owns an arc Innovation and these these companies are not going to do well in this environment I think we're better off without a central bank I think even if you can argue for certain benefits of a central bank it's not worth the risk they they're always going to exceed their limited Mission you know power corrupts so you never want to empower a central bank and you know I think you know with the technology we have today of the internet we never had have had less reason for central bank there's no reason that we can't go back to a gold standard without a central bank uh Banks or private companies you know you're you're into you know the technology the internet the blockchain it's very easy for banks and other institutions to custody bars of gold and then create you know digital tokens right take you know tokenize that bar gold and create currency right that is real money because it's backed by that gold and everybody can negotiate with everybody can use it as a unit of account and you've exchange it would be a store of value we don't need central banks to print these pieces of paper so that we all have something we recognize we don't need governments we don't need central banks we can create our own money and we can digitize it so that gold will function as a much better medium of exchange and unit of account than it ever has over the past five thousand years
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