저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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이 영상은 2023년 유망 투자처를 두고 출연자들이 의견을 나누는 팟캐스트 대담이다. 결론적으로 특정 상장 종목에 대한 직접적인 가격 예측은 거의 없고, 주로 우주·AI·천연가스·기술 인력 시장에 대한 테마 전망이 중심이다. 우주 산업: 출연자는 SpaceX를 발사 능력 면에서 독보적인 기업으로 평가했다. 3D 프린팅으로 로켓을 제작해 비용을 크게 낮춘 relativity space의 3주 뒤 발사와 약 100억 달러 규모 수주잔고를 언급하며, 발사가 성공하면 SpaceX 수준 가치로 갈 수 있다고 봤다. 실패 시에는 0이 될 수 있다는 점도 덧붙였다. 비상장 기업이라 종목 방향 예측은 없음. AI: OpenAI가 2023년 가장 큰 승자가 될 것이라고 전망했다. 근거는 Dall-E와 ChatGPT 기반으로 창업이 쏟아지는 점, 마이크로소프트와의 대규모 투자(10억 달러 이상 가능성), Bing 검색 등 제품 확장 가능성이다. 비상장 기업이며 상장 종목 언급은 없음. 천연가스: 2023년 최대 승자로 미국 천연가스 산업을 꼽았다. 유럽이 러시아 가스 의존에서 벗어나 미국 LNG 수입으로 전환했고, 가스 가격이 전쟁 전 수준으로 떨어졌다고 설명했다. 바이든 행정부가 정책을 바꿔 석유·가스 산업을 지원하게 된 점도 언급했다. 개별 상장 종목 언급은 없음. 고용·플랫폼: 도어대시, 에어비앤비, 우버, 엣시 같은 플랫폼이 공급 제약을 겪어 긱 워커와 기업가를 더 끌어들일 것이라 봤다. 해고된 기술 인력이 2~3명 팀으로 창업하면 성공 가능성이 크다는 견해도 밝혔다. 조건·리스크: 우주 기업은 발사 성공 여부에 따라 가치가 극단적으로 갈린다. 대부분의 주장은 장기 테마 중심이며 단기 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다. 출연자 전망: Chamath는 relativity space 및 OpenAI에 대해 낙관적이다. Freiberg는 OpenAI를 가장 확실한 승자로 꼽았다. Sacks는 천연가스 및 정책 변화에 대한 견해를 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
I'm going to pick something out of my portfolio I think I'm the only non-trivially large investor in both SpaceX and relativity space hello today we will be looking at child moth view on 2023 biggest business Winery Elon Musk let's go and begin the video relativity space has a huge SpaceX is clearly just crushing on all cylinders and they're really the only game in town with respect to launch capability and if you just Google it you'll see that the Europeans you know have a hit or miss capability and launch the Russians are completely unable to do launch now because of all of these sanctions the private companies in New Zealand or the United States have also had fits and starts really incapable relativity which is really which is now the second most highly valued space business is about to do a launch in the third week of January and the big difference between it and SpaceX which is sort of why we did it this is a early YC company I did the series a and kind of went along the whole way they have 3D printed everything and the reason why 3D printing is interesting is you take a so if you if you think a rocket costs five billion dollars if built by NASA Elon was able to take that to 100 to 500 million and if you 3D print everything you can take that cost to like five to fifty million and so it allows you to just have this repeatability and manufacturability now SpaceX also has a lot of 3D printed Parts but relativity is entirely 3D printed it has a launch in three weeks at Cape Canaveral I think and we have like a 10 billion dollar order book that gets unlocked so I don't know how to see beyond a lot of these Market forecasts right now so I'd rather pick a company I'll pick something in my portfolio if the rocket does not blow up there's a 10 billion dollar order book and this company is now on a trajectory to be as valued as SpaceX all right talking his book times two and if it doesn't it goes to zero freeberg go ahead and talk your book times two or three let's see if you can one-up chamoth which one of your investments will be the biggest business winner of 2023 Freeburg I'm not an investor my big bet is open AI it's just way too obvious to be anything else this year as you guys know there are dozens of startups that are being started right now based on an open AI demonstration of Dolly and uh Chachi BT yeah I think we're seeing this in the Enterprise and consumer markets I think open AI will become to some degree maybe they could be as many paths they could take the AWS providing tooling and infrastructure to all these startups that are building applications for consumers and business users or they will end up doing a massive deal with Microsoft I think it's inevitable they're going to get a billion dollar plus investment this year they could power you know AI driven Bing search and Voice driven search they could build their own products and their own tools and they're becoming great investors they invested in dscript which is a product company we use here for our podcast which is an incredible product and I think that Sam Altman is a very smart and screwed investor as well so for a lot of reasons I think open AI could end up having an amazing year this year and a lot of different paths they could walk and we're going to come out of this year and say they're one of the top tech companies in the valley okay sax open AI has of course increased your ability to talk to other humans so you're seeing a lot of big wins there I know um he's how do I talk to a child about their college hopes and aspirations no no how do I talk to a child about their day it literally is hello hello progeny of mine how are you faring today in this complicated write me a script of talking to a 12 year old about their hopes and dreams say it's interesting using GPT for talking points on different topics I should try that for the Pod you know oh okay we should have done the GPT predictions or answer these categories sex as a person on the Spectrum uh yeah how delightful is uh this uh chat EBT and you know your treatment of your condition that's great let me let me get to my answer here okay so um my answer for the big business winner of the year is America's natural gas industry and I have to admit this is an aspect of the Ukraine war that I didn't fully appreciate until I read this New York Times article the other day about how natural gas prices in Europe have now fallen to the level they're at before the war and everyone thought that there'd be this huge shortage and they wouldn't be able to heat their homes well what happened the the answer is that Europe completely cut off their dependence on Russian gas and in fact the Nordstrom pipelines were blown up so physically they separated but then on top of it they basically started importing liquefied natural gas from the U.S and here's the key paragraph in this article from The New York Times is that Europe rapidly built terminals to receive liquefied gas sweeping away many of the usual bureaucratic obstacles and environmental objections so in other words what normally would have taken decades to get approvals now was all put on a fast track and Europe is now completely dependent on American natural gas and I think this is again the thing maybe I underestimated the cold hard American interest in this war is to basically turn Europe into a vassal of America's natural gas industry previously they were about to be dependent on Russia and Nordstrom was going to make that situation permanent we've you know somebody blew up nordstream now they're dependent on American LNG they're going to pay higher prices for that but it's uh it's been a pretty impressive win for the American natural gas industry and I think Biden has really pulled a 180 here because you remember when he first came into office he canceled Keystone he canceled drilling he was very tough on the oil and gas industry I think after he then delivered the hundreds of billions for the climate special interest in the inflation reduction act now he is taking care of the oil and gas industry I love it yeah not and so what you're saying is Biden dynamically changed course based on inputs like a great leader would okay well done sex well I don't I don't listen I don't know well no listen I think Biden has done something politically smart here there's no question about it I am giving him credit does it mean that this war was worth it no I don't I don't think we should be engaging in oil Wars like we did in the Middle East so I'm not justifying this war but I am saying that there is a cold hard American interest undergirding the uh our position which is is it's about LNG it's not it's not just about moral platitudes yeah I mean strong start to 2023 vassal and undergirding my addictions I'm working backwards from two here I think the door dashes airbnbs Ubers etsy's of the world who need entrepreneurs they need workers they need Supply they've always been Supply constrained as unemployment becomes let's call it what it is sticky you're going to see a lot more people participating in Gig platforms or entrepreneurial platforms that enable them to make money so I think they will be huge beneficiaries especially if they continue to lay off employees like doordash and Airbnb did to right-size their businesses but my first one my number one is laid off Tech workers I think laid off Tech workers who get together in groups of two three or four uh developers product managers people who actually build stuff and start companies together are going to become extremely successful and they're going to make incredible lemonade from these lemons of these big Tech layoffs so I think the startup space is gonna and these laid off Tech workers who choose to take control of the destiny and starts companies are going to be the true Big Winners if you do it do it with two or three friends because you're going to need developers you're going to need those those talented people in the startups that have three founders get funded faster than the ones with one they are discussing their investments in the space industry and their belief in the potential success of companies like SpaceX and relativity space they also mention their belief in the potential success of opanai in the upcoming year and the various paths the company could take they also Express an interest in using GPT for talking points on different topics such as talking to a child about their hopes and dreams so what do you think about this
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