저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: ARK 펀드가 50% 이상 하락했지만 역사적 저점 매수 기회이며, 인플레이션은 통화 유통속도 하락으로 1970년대식으로 지속되지 않는다고 주장. 시장 급락 원인: 현재 하락은 펀드 고유 문제가 아니라 인플레이션·금리 공포 속 알고리즘 트레이딩이 현금흐름(현금소진율)·고밸류 종목을 기계적으로 매도한 결과라고 설명. 현재 ARK 보유 종목은 단기 고평가처럼 보이지만 5년 투자기간 기준으로 보면 성숙 혁신기업 수준(EV/EBITDA 18~19배)까지 밸류에이션이 압축될 것으로 봄. 인플레이션 전망: 파월 의장이 금리 인상 가능성을 언급했으나, 1970년대처럼 인플레가 고착되지는 않을 것이라 주장. 근거는 통화 유통속도(velocity)로, 1960~80년대에는 소비자가 물가 상승을 우려해 즉시 지출해 속도가 올랐으나 1997년 이후 약 50% 하락. 통화증가율도 2020년 27%에서 최근 12.6%로 둔화, 연율 기준 최근 3개월 저단위 성장으로 둔화 중이라 진단. 암호화폐·지정학: 우크라이나에 비트코인·이더리움 등 약 5천만 달러 기부, 러시아 시민들은 루블 급락 헤지 수단으로 비트코인을 활용하는 것으로 언급. 스타링크 위성 제공과 러시아의 신호 재밍으로 SpaceX가 사이버 방어에 우선순위를 두며 화성 식민지 목표가 지연될 수 있다고 언급. 리스크: 유통속도가 다시 오르면 인플레이션이 재발할 수 있다는 점을 진행자가 질문으로 제기. 출연자 전망: Cathie Wood는 현재 조정을 저가 매수 기회로 보고 향후 몇 달이 흥미로울 것이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
with kathy woods flagship fund now down over 50 from its all-time high the team at arc invest are going through one of the biggest crashes in their company's history the problem is if there is still more downside to come as the broader stock market is still only in correction territory having dropped 12 at its lowest point this year now they always say that great leaders are the ones that shine in times of adversity and it's not how you are when everything's going right and well for you but it's how you are and how you react when everything is going against you so in this video we'll be looking at the current big crash and why kathy wood believes there's been such a big downturn in the innovation sector the current red-hot inflation and these interest rate hikes and why kathy wood believes that it will soon all be reversing and then we'll finish up with her monthly crypto update and then some amazing things going on with elon musk his company starlink and russia as always if you do enjoy anything in the video then drop a like always appreciated okay so why has kathy woods funds been hit harder than just about everything else well she explains that it actually comes down to one unusual thing take a look for the past year i feel uh like we've been going through a little bit of a different kind of shock and it's associated with inflation and interest rate fears now during shocks and and we saw this during covid uh what we tend to see in the public equity markets is what i call algorithms or quantitative trading strategies that just pick up on a few variables and um and uh press hard from in terms of betting against them that the stocks associated with them so during covid we could see very clearly that uh cash cushions and cash burn uh were the two primary variables that these algorithms seem to be seizing on and that they uh hurt our stocks disproportionately in the span of three to four weeks our stocks many of them were down 75 percent because many of our companies are earlier stage we're the closest you'll find to a venture capital uh fund in the public equity markets uh and of course at that time we said you know innovation solves problems and we have a lot of problems now and uh of course our strategies took off uh once the coast was clear for the markets well in the last year this fear of inflation and interest rates moving up and destroying uh the valuations in the marketplace have have gripped the markets and and it seems as though the algorithms were focused primarily on high valuation stocks uh now our stre in our strategies we own uh what look like very high valuation stocks in in the short term if you're only looking at this year but if you take a look at our multi the multiples on our stocks given a five year investment time horizon you will find that they are at or below very mature innovation stocks in other words we've made that assumption the valuations are going to compress dramatically uh and uh to to the 1819 times range when it comes to enterprise value to ebitda so interestingly she believes there's an automated algorithm going on which only looks at a couple of basic metrics which is then disproportionately affected the innovation sector now on the surface this does look a little bit like an excuse however i did recently cover sam bankman freed of ftx's latest insights and he also mentioned the same thing so probably there is something to it now the next big challenge for the markets to digest is this red hot inflation which is probably going to lead to some rate hikes however kathy wood believes that inflation is not going to last and for one main reason uh this week uh chairman powell said uh in all likelihood the fed would raise interest rates he also did say when asked the question um in his testimony um that uh he would get aggressive if inflation seemed to be embedding into the system uh in a 70s like scenario we are not expecting that why um it comes back to this concept of velocity the rate at which money turns over so i did a little more homework on velocity in the 70s um actually the increase in velocity um started in the 60s and uh in the fourth quarter of six from the fourth quarter of 64 to the first quarter of 81 uh velocity increased 21 uh so the rate at which money turns over in the economy and uh what that meant at that time at least is many people used to buy as soon as they got more income they would buy goods and services and especially goods right away as quickly as possible because they were afraid prices would go up or uh interest rates in the case of cars and other durable goods would go up so buy now before prices and interest rates go up and that became a self-fulfilling prophecy if you look at what has happened since 1997 and i was actually surprised to see the peak in velocity this time around that long ago from the third quarter of 97 to uh the fourth quarter of uh 2020 uh 2021 um velocity has dropped 50 percent on top of that money growth rates have decelerated from the high uh at 27 in 2020 uh to 12.6 uh that's the january reading but if you look at money growth on an annualized basis it is slowing down it has slowed down in the last three months to the low single digit range so already we think there's a dramatic deceleration in money growth underway that many people are not focusing so kathy believes we will not be getting problematic sustained inflation like we got in the 70s and this is due to money velocity now it's a common belief that just printing loads of money leads to inflation however this isn't strictly true you also need everybody spending the money which is the velocity so if the population begins saving and hoarding then you can in fact print loads of money and not get inflation and this is why kathy believes we won't be getting runaway inflation however i think yes but what happens if velocity picks up okay and to finish up we have kathy's crypto update and some very weird things going on with russia ukraine and elon musk's starling satellites so uh the crypto networks are are uh proving their worth as a neutral technology platform uh the we're seeing donations of both bitcoin and uh ether to to the ukraine i think it's 50 million uh if i'm not mistaken in the last week uh and uh we're also seeing bitcoin as a currency hedge for russian citizens who are watching the ruble um get get uh hammered here and you know these are not the oligarchs in fact as we were discussing at our at our brainstorm today there's not enough uh there's not enough bitcoin out there for the oligarchs to hedge uh and they can they they have been hedging uh for years anyway this is for the average russian citizen who actually is aghast many of them as we hear it against what's going on in in russia we're seeing of course the social platforms providing real real-time updates and providing you know a glimpse into the horrors that are taking place there and i think that has put a lot of pressure on um financial institutions and others to boycott or stop doing business with russia it's terrible for the the russian citizens who do not want this invasion uh but uh i think we've never seen uh the financial system used as such a weapon uh and uh we'll see we'll see if it works um we also know uh about starlink uh uh i think um the president of ukraine uh reached out to elon musk's and say hey we're being cut off out out there and of course elon sent uh starlink to the rescue so that that's phenomenal that's phenomenal that we can continue to communicate with these people and again everyone around the world can see the horror uh that uh that ukraine is experiencing so amazingly krypto has been coming to the rescue for the people of ukraine who would have been cut off from the rest of the world as elon sent over his stalling terminals after the request was put out by the ukrainian president but then like something out of a james bond movie russia has been signal blocking elon satellites so much so that spacex are having to re-prioritize fighting cyber defense against russia which could now delay his goal of colonizing mars it all feels like something out of a sci-fi movie it even feels quite strange saying it spacex is fighting cyber defense against russia which will delay the colonization of mars kathy wood and the rktfs have officially crashed as they're now down over 50 percent from their all-time highs it's in times of struggle and uncertainty that great leaders come through great leaders emerge not when everything's going your way but when everything's going against you so the next couple of months are going to be very interesting now whether it's the rkts or crypto i'm in the camp that when something of value drops by over 50 then you get a chance to buy the investment at a price that you wish you could have when everything was setting all-time highs and it proves again that the principle of buy low sell high is in fact quite hard to do she believes one of the main causes as to why everything is so much out of whack is due to these automated trading strategies which only look at a couple of basic metrics kathy also believes that inflation won't be sustained like it was in the 70s as we don't have the same velocity as they had back then and yet another great use case for crypto has opened up as now over 50 million dollars worth of donations have been made to the ukraine in their time of need and like something out of a james bond movie spacex and elon musk are now battling with signal jamming from russia it certainly is crazy times and i hope this conflict can come to a speedy resolution so there you are guys hope you enjoyed do you think this 50 crash in the rktfs and also crypto is a signal to get out of the market or a rare buying opportunity let me know below but for now just to say if you did enjoy anything in the video then drop a like and a big thank you to everyone who does if you haven't yet subscribed click below and join us got some great videos coming up that you don't want to miss okay cheers guys thanks for watching and i'll see you in the next video bye for now you
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